DraftKings MLB Picks September 17: Is Corbin worth the price?
We have a dozen games, making this a pretty busy Monday. There are three pitchers in five digits, but it drops off swiftly after that. Can we survive by paying down at pitcher? Should we even try with Coors out of the picture? Let’s take a look at what we have going on for our Monday.
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The only rain chance is in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Baltimore looks a little more dicey, but Pittsburgh should be relatively safe if for nothing else than the fact that they could have a very hard time rescheduling with the Royals. However, as we have seen earlier in the month, the teams have had no problems scheduling a doubleheader later in the series.
The wind is also blowing out to left at 12 mph in Baltimore. That could help some of that right handed power if the game gets played.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
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Patrick Corbin ($11,900): Corbin racked up 32.2 DraftKings points against the Cubs earlier this year. I don’t really like any offense in this one because Arizona’s offense has struggled at home, and Corbin did dominate the Cubs earlier. That said, Corbin’s career numbers against the Cubs still aren’t very good. If you elect to fade, I can’t fault the logic. Especially when you consider how many good options we have at lower prices.
Mike Foltynewicz ($10,800): Folty gave up just one hit in five innings to the Cardinals earlier this year. He threw a complete game his last time out in San Francisco. The Braves are willing to ride Foltynewicz since they are convinced that his arm is fine. His career numbers against the Cardinals aren’t great, but much as with Wheeler, both of these guys are pitching too well to ignore it right now.
Zack Wheeler ($10,500): Past stats be damned, Wheeler has a ridiculous 8-1 record with a 1.32 ERA over his last ten starts. The Mets actually score for him. What a novel idea! The Phillies have hit Wheeler pretty hard in his career, and again earlier this year. However, with the way Wheeler is pitching right now, I don’t think the Phillies can really get to him. Wheeler may give up a run or two, but he is going to rack up enough strikeouts to erase those dings pretty quickly.
Joe Musgrove ($9,200): Two of the better pitchers are in a game that is threatened by rain. My initial reaction is that SP’s aren’t safe here, but keep an eye on the weather. If it’s safe, Musgrove has a great matchup and has been better at home. The only issue with him and Keller besides the rain is that neither of them have that coveted strikeout upside, which limits the ceiling. Both could flirt with 20 DraftKings points though, meaning I don’t really want any hitters in this one.
Brad Keller ($8,100): Keller isn’t anything special, but he has six straight quality starts, racking up double digit DraftKings points in all of them. He gets a park upgrade and has to face one less paid hitter here, so I like the potential for Keller. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he does get enough to enhance the score. Keller may not hit 20 DraftKings points, but he could come close.
Jake Arrieta ($7,800): Arrieta has dominated the Mets this year, allowing just one run in 13.1 innings over two starts against them amassing 42.8 DraftKings points. The Mets are only hitting .221 in 113 at bats against Arrieta with a pair of homers and ten runs to go with 36 strikeouts. This is shaping up to be a pitchers duel in Philly.
Wade Miley ($7,200): Miley continues to defy logic and thumb his nose at metrics. The Reds are hitting just .197 with a homer and three runs in 66 at bats with 18 strikeouts against Miley. All of Miley’s numbers on the season are far better than his career totals, so why wouldn’t his strikeouts be as well? It seems safe to ride Miley. He always looks ripe for a beating, but rarely takes one.
Framber Valdez ($7,000): Valdez racked up 18.2 DraftKings points in his first start against Seattle despite not lasting long enough for the win. Valdez has only gone more than five innings once, so he isn’t going to go deep into the game. That really caps the value here, but Valdez could do some damage while he is in there, especially if Nelson Cruz is out.
Andrew Suarez ($6,400): Suarez has picked up 32.2 DraftKings points in two starts against the Padres this year. There is some risk because of the sheer volume of right handed power that the Padres have, but Suarez has proven that he can handle them. He could come in at a little lower ownership because of all the value arms on this slate as well.
Trevor Richards ($6,200): There could be a whole lot of fantasy goodness in Miami today if you are looking for cheap pitching. Richards dominated the Nats earlier this year in South Florida, and looks primed to do so again. Richards has only allowed two runs over two starts against Washington this year, racking up 34.2 DraftKings points in the process. There is decent potential here.
Adrian Sampson ($5,600): Sampson pitched well in his start against the Angels last week, so he will get another go of it. He has the fortune of another good matchup here with the Rays. Sampson likely wont go more than five innings, and he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but this is a solid value play if you are worried about the chalk of Fedde.
Erick Fedde ($5,300): Fedde had the best start of his young career against the Philiies last week, pitching 5.2 shutout innings and striking out nine en route to 32.4 DraftKings points. He gets a huge upgrade going in to Marlins Park and an even better upgrade facing the Marlins. There is always risk for a blowup with Fedde, but if he can pitch that well in Philly, he should have no problems with the Marlins in Miami. For this price, it’s definitely worth finding out.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Ryan Borucki:
Borucki has been an absolute disaster on the road. He has a 5.82 ERA in eight road starts. The righty dominant Orioles already torched Borucki for five runs in 4.2 innings in Baltimore earlier this year. A similar outing could be coming here. Mancini and Adam Jones both homered in that game. Villar, Tim Beckham, and Joey Rickard look like very affordable pieces of this stack as well. The build should center around Jones and Mancini though.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore bullpen:
With Cashner unable to start, this will likely fall to Jimmy Yacabonis or Josh Rogers to start. Neither option looks good for the Orioles. If Rogers starts, it is a true bullpen game since Baltimore is limiting his innings anyway. Yacabonis is likely to get chased early, so there is a lot of potential here for Toronto bats against an awful Baltimore bullpen. Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez, and Lourdes Gurriel are in play against everyone. I think I like to use the switch hitting of Morales or Smoak due to the volatility of this situation as well. Look out for Billy McKinney and the recently hot Grichuk as well.
You know, the reason why most people can’t do what the Rays do with the opener is because the bullpen was the strength of the Rays. They have used that to their advantage. The Twins bullpen is worse than their rotation, which really is saying something. Castellanos, V-Mart, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, and Mikie Mahtook is a cheap stack that could come up big against this ghastly pitching staff. That said, the Tigers are pretty much all or nothing. They did beat up Stewart for five runs earlier this year though.
Minnesota Twins vs. Jordan Zimmerman:
Even what’s remaining of the Twins offense has managed to beat up Zimmerman. The Twins are hitting .343 with three homers and 22 runs in just 102 at bats off of him. Rosario, Sano, and Robbie Grossman have the homers. Joe Mauer is 6-20 with four RBI. Logan Forsythe and Jake Cave are worth a look as well.
Houston Astros vs. Wade LeBlanc:
LeBlanc has managed to fool most teams, but the Astros are not one of them. Houston is hitting .371 with seven homers and 19 runs in just 97 at bats against LeBlanc. Evan Gattis has three of those homers. Marwin Gonzalez has two. That’s a good way to save to pay for Correa, Altuve, and Tyler White!
Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are worth a look, but I tend to think this game will be a pitcher’s duel. I’m not sure how much capital I want to invest on the offensive side of this with this large of a slate.
Miles Mikolas has been decent, but is rarely worth the money because of the lack of strikeouts. I definitely wouldn’t use him at SunTrust Park. I like both Freeman and Albies here because of how kind the park is to left handed batters.
Matt Carpenter is really the only Cardinal that I would consider today, but I tend to think we can do better than trying to go after a guy like Foltynewicz.
The Brewers have hit Anthony DeSclafani well, but he is mostly a powder keg at home. Not so much on the road. This is a time to go after him with the Brewers that have homers off of him – Granderson, Aguilar, and Yelich – and call it good.
I don’t trust the Rockies on the road, even though they have thumped Ryu in his career. Nolan Arenado has three homers and seven RBI off of him and is 10-16 overall. That’s as far as I go with this though.
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The Rays get a price jack with Adrian Sampson on the mound for Texas, so I’m not really sure I want any of them. The power of Bauers should play well in Arlington, and he has been on a roll for the last two games. Beyond that, I don’t think the potential is worth the price.
Cesar Hernandez is about the only guy that I am comfortable going against Wheeler with. Hernandez is 7-11 with a steal lifetime against Wheeler.
I may take a run at Valdez with Mitch Haniger, but that’s about it. Valdez is good enough not to attack and so is the Houston bullpen.
This will likely be a pitcher’s duel, so the only Met I really like against Arrieta is the Toddfather. Frazier has both homers and six of the ten RBi in just 20 at bats against Arrieta.
Tyler Glasnow has struggled some on the road, and the Rangers definitely have the power to make him pay for it. Glasnow allowed two solo shots in his last game, so we are chasing power here with Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, and maybe Profar.
I’m not advocating a Dodgers stack, mostly because I am tired of losing money on them. However, even during Jon Gray‘s good run, the Dodgers were the only team that really got to him. Gray has allowed two or more homers in three of his last four games. Machado, Muncy, and the ridiculously hot Yasiel Puig are all worth a look here. Cody Bellinger is 6-8 lifetime against Gray is you want to go a little bit cheaper.
I’m not really after Reds here, but Billy Hamilton and Phillip Ervin are both worth a look against Miley. If you have the money, you can chase a bomb with Suarez, but there are probably better places to spend your money.
If you are ever going to stack Giants, this may be the place. The problem is you aren’t likely to get a homer out of anyone on this team. Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt are the best places to look for that. However, there are a lot of cheap filler bats that can help you cash here.
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