Monday Night Football: Bears vs. Seahawks Preview

Fantasy Football: SEATTLE, WA – DECEMBER 31: Quarterback Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks jogs off the field after their loss to the Arizona Cardinals at CenturyLink Field on December 31, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. The Arizona Cardinals beat the Seattle Seahawks 26-24. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images) Monday Night Football /

On Monday, September 17th at 8:15 PM, the Chicago Bears look for redemption a week after Aaron Rodgers ripped out the hearts of Chicago natives, again. Hosting the former NFC powerhouse, the Bears will have a second straight test against an NFC opponent under the lights of prime time television on Monday Night Football.

Seahawks @ Bears Monday Night Football Preview

When: Monday, 9/17 at 8:15 PM EST

Where: Soldier Field in Chicago, IL

How: ESPN

Devastated by last week’s comeback executed by arguably the most hated athlete in Chicago, Khalil Mack and the Bears will look to reverse the tides and earn their first victory against the Seattle Seahawks this week on the second episode of Monday Night Football.

Despite the Week 1 poignant sense of despair, the Chicago Bears had a few positive takeaways. Khalil Mack is the real deal. With 2 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, 1 sack and 1 interception returned for a touchdown, Mack was a visible force along with Roquan Smith and the rejuvenated Bears defense.

Outside of field goals, the only offensive score for the Bears in Week 1 was a Mitch Trubisky 2-yard score midway through the first. The talent is there on offense with the additions of Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller. Trubisky has clearly not identified his favorite target as the Bears had 7 different players with 3 or more targets but none with more than 7 (Allen Robinson). Tribusky had 7 rushes, Jordan Howard had 15 and Tarik Cohen had 5.

The ‘share the rock’ strategy seemed to work early on as the Packers found it hard to identify a pattern and the Bears were able to take a 20-0 lead into the half. However, I think that without a true go-to option thus far, Trubisky will struggle in games that are down to the wire.

I do however think it could work against a re-tooled, young Seattle defense. A fresh-faced unit with rookies such as Tre Flowers and Shaquem Griffin playing pivotal roles seemed to struggle against the Broncos attack in Week 1 despite Flowers INT and 7 tackles. Flowers is also dealing with a hamstring problem. With K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner out, the Seahawks will have to rely on Earl Thomas and his leadership heavily in the coming weeks. They have also recently acquired LB Mychal Kendricks despite him currently waiting for his appeal on an insider trading suspension.

Here is what #Seahawks' defense has become (you may want to turn you head. Or have someone read it to you--with compassion): pic.twitter.com/OdRXklVzOf
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) September 15, 2018

On offense, the Seahawks are in trouble. The game script called for a heavy amount of passing in Week 1 so it is hard to tell what the plan is in Seattle between Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, their presumed 1A and 1B backs. More importantly, Seattle is desperate for someone to stand out after Jimmy Graham left in the off-season and Doug Baldwin was injured in week 1. Left in the Seahawks receiving corps are a lonely 3 receivers who have caught a ball from Russell Wilson prior to this season. Outside of Tyler Lockett (137 catches, 1816 yards in 3 previous seasons with Wilson), they have Nick Vannett (15 previous receptions from Wilson) and Tre Madden (2 previous receptions from Wilson).

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They do have two other receivers on the roster with decent career numbers. Brandon Marshall, 34, is in the twilight of his career with 962 receptions and 122261 yards with 83 touchdowns to his name. He ended with 3 receptions on 6 targets for 46 yards and a TD after the Baldwin injury in week one. Jaron Brown, 28, has 87 career receptions with 9 TD joining Seattle after a 5 years career with the Cardinals. The two will be thrust into a significant role in Week 2.

There was also the ’emergence’ of Will Dissly. The former Washington Huskie found his way into the end-zone on a 15 yard reception on the Seahawks second drive of the game and also ripped off a 66 yard reception at the end of the 1st. After that, he only caught one more ball to total 3 catches, 105 yards and the score. Fantasy players were quick to react to the stat line but he really didn’t do anything after a solid 1st quarter. Dissly and Vannett will battle this season at TE but the absence of Jimmy Graham and even Luke Willson is noticeable.

GAME NOTES

Since Russell Wilson’s rookie season (2012), the Seahawks are 19-4-1 in prime time games for the best record in that time-frame (ahead of New England). They have outscored opponents by 284 in those games. Russell is even deadlier on Monday Night. He has completed 132 passes on 187 attempts (70.6%) for 1,607 yards, 14 touchdowns and only 1 interception going 6-1 on Monday Night. More importantly, he has rushed for 339 yards for 3 TD in those games.

TOP DRAFTKINGS VALUE

Russell Wilson
Tyler Lockett
Rashaad Penny
Brandon Marshall
Tarik Cohen
Trey Burton
Taylor Gabriel
Bears Defense

It’s tough to ignore Russell Wilson‘s success in the limelight and during MNF. At $6600, I am most confident with his abilities on the Monday only slate or even the Monday-Thursday slate (pricing in this preview) for DraftKings. With the lack of options, he will rely on his feet and ability to extend the play. They only target of his I feel confident about is Tyler Lockett, $5800. Lockett has proven to be a reliable target even with the presence of Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson over the past few years and now is the only one remaining (until Baldwin returns).

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Pete Carroll made it clear that Chris Carson is the starter after Sunday’s game in Denver where Carson had 51 yards on 7 rushes and Penny had a mere 8 yards on 7 attempts. However, Rashaad Penny had 4 catches for 35 yards. Despite a pretty strong split in the rushing and receiving game for both Carson and Penny, I like taking Penny at the cheaper price tag and the predictable lower ownership. Out of the receivers beyond Lockett that may be a good target, Brandon Marshall had a higher snap count (37) than Jaron Brown (33), David Moore (16) and Tre Madden (6) and is pretty good value at $4900.

On the other side, Mitchell Trubisky continues to be a game manager with the lone weapon being his legs related to DFS. I much prefer all three QBs on the Mon-Thur slate (Wilson, Taylor and Darnold). If you are playing the Monday only slate, you obviously have to use Jordan Howard because you have to spend the money somewhere but I think he is a fade in the Mon-Thur contests. Tarik Cohen ($5100) is a much more attractive option to me in what I expect to be a bit of a shootout. I am confident that the Bears will try to dictate the pace early and get the ball in Howard’s hands but I do think the script will flip at some point and Cohen will play a huge role in the passing game.

Again, if you need to spend the dollars, Allen Robinson is a suitable option at WR but for $6200, I think those dollars could be allocated to Quincy Enunwa and others. behind Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel (5) and Trey Burton (6) were the next highest target totals. Taylor Gabriel ($4200) joins the Bears after years with the Falcons and seems to have fit in nicely with Trubisky after one week. I love his price tag and think he is a good pivot in the game. Trey Burton ($4500) is the only playable option at TE for Mon-Thur unless you are confident in Njoku. His ownership will be high but I like his upside after 6 targets in week 1 (only 1 reception for 15 yards).

As I mentioned, I have a sneaky suspicion that this game will turn into a bit of a shootout. That being said, I think the Bears Defense ($3200) is still a pretty clear play. Defenses in DFS are obviously gauged by the points they give up but it really doesn’t matter unless you luck out and get a DST that produces a shutout. The Bears had 4 sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR and a DEF TD in Week 1. That is where the money is made. I’m comfortable with the Bears D even if they give up 25-30.

BETTING PICKS

Current Odds:

Bears (-4.5)
Bears (-210)
Seahawks (+175)
Over/Under (43)

My Picks:

Seahawks +4.5
Over 43

I really don’t want to bet against Russell Wilson getting a victory on Monday Night but the state of the Seahawks has forced my hand. The sharps have pushed this game to Bears -4.5 after they opened as 3 point favorites and I think that is the sweet spot for this game. The Bears have a lot of hype at the moment but have yet to show anything. However, I think the defense is legit and there are enough weapons on offense to get the job done. This game gets sloppy at the end but I think the Seahawks cover and may even sneak away with this game if the Bears don’t put together a playbook for all 4 quarters.

Prediction – Bears 31 Seahawks 27

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Best of luck in your Monday Night Football contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest Fantasy Football news and analysis heading into Week 3.

Monday Night Football Week 2: Bears vs. Seahawks Preview

By Alex McKinnon | Sep 17, 2018