DraftKings MLB Picks September 18: Which ace do you choose?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks September 18: Which ace do you choose?
The Yankees and Red Sox take their brand of hatred to a matinee in the Bronx, so that leaves us with 14 games in the main DraftKings tournament. As you may expect with a slate this large, there are some very good pitching options and some sleeper picks that could come up big as well. Who should we build around? Let’s check it out!
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There is a slight chance of a delayed start in Detroit, but even if it is delayed, it will play as normal within an hour at the most.
The only wind of note is the Bay Area breeze in Oakland. This should be a good weather night for baseball!
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
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Top Tier:
Blake Snell ($12,100): Snell has been somewhat less dominant on the road, but Texas has really had problems with lefties, including this one. The Rangers only managed one run on Snell in their only start against him. Snellzilla racked up 31.3 DraftKings points in that one. Snell has at least 25 DraftKings points in seven straight games. Are you sure you want to fade that? In cash games, Snell is clearly the best option.
Aaron Nola ($10,900): The Mets are hitting just .164 against Nola in 116 at bats with three homers, six runs, and 38 strikeouts. Those are the kind of numbers we want from our SP1. Nola has 129 DraftKings points in five starts against the Mets this year. He should be in at least the mid 20s for DraftKings points today. That is worth this price tag.
Corey Kluber ($10,600): The White Sox are only hitting .216 against Kluber in 167 at bats with five homers, 14 runs, and a whopping 60 strikeouts. On top of that, Kluber has shut out the Pale Hose over 13 innings this year, amassing 68.2 DraftKings points in just two starts against them. Kluber may not have as elite numbers overall, but he has completely dominated the White Sox this year. Kluber actually appears cheap here!
Stephen Strasburg ($10,200): The Marlins are only hitting .211 with a homer and two runs with 22 strikeouts in 76 at bats against Strasburg. Factor in that Strasburg has a 2.27 ERA in eight road starts and his 27.7 DraftKings points against the Fish earlier this year, and you have someone that could anchor your staff. Kluber and Nola may be a little more flashy and higher owned, but I do like Strasburg as a pivot option here. There is plenty of potential here.
Middle Tier:
Kyle Freeland ($9,500): Freeland’s career numbers against the Dodgers are not good, but he has racked up 63 DraftKings points in three starts against them this year. Freeland has a 2.32 ERA over his last ten starts, and racked up 27.9 DraftKings points against the Dodgers just ten days ago. He is rolling right now, and has 54.9 DraftkIngs points during that ten game stretch. We pretty much know that we are getting a strong start from Freeland right now.
Jameson Taillon ($9,200): Taillon has five straight games with 20 or more DraftKings points and a 2.47 ERA over his last ten starts. Now he gets to take on the Royals without a DH? Yes please! Taillon is a suitable fade to just about anyone on the top tier tonight. He has never faced the Royals before, but chances are he’s going to like it. Those who use him in their lineups should as well.
Carlos Rodon ($8,100): The Indians are only hitting .211 in 204 at bats against Rodon with just two homers and 16 runs to go with 50 strikeouts. Those are good numbers. That said, Rodon is mostly a GPP play because this Cleveland offense is still very potent. Still, Rodon has 46.8 DraftKings points in three starts against Cleveland this year with just six runs allowed in 19.1 innings. He should be able to put together another solid game at low ownership.
Jake Odorizzi ($8,000): The Tigers are hitting just .143 in 49 at bats with no homers, two runs, and 13 strikeouts against Odorizzi. When you factor in the fact that Odorizzi took a no hitter into the eighth against the Yankees in his last start, it looks like he should be able to handle the Tigers in Detroit. There is solid potential here if you can swing Odorizzi as your SP2.
Bargain Pitchers:
Sandy Alcantara ($6,200): Alcantara has allowed just six hits in 12 innings at Marlins Park so far. It’s pretty easy to trust him at home. Last night was not quite the pitcher’s duel that I expected, but this one should be. I like the potential on Alcantara here, but Washington does have some dangerous lefties.
Aaron Sanchez ($5,900): Sanchez looks like a really good option here. Not only has he picked up 36.8 DraftKings points over two starts against the Orioles this year, but he has eclipsed the 20 DraftKings point mark in both of his last two starts. If you take Davis’ stats out of the past stats against Sanchez, the Orioles have just one homer and five runs in 69 at bats with 12 strikeouts. There is a lot of bang for the buck here, but Sanchez will likely be as chalky as Fedde was last night.
Daniel Norris ($5,400): The Twins are hitting just .204 with two homers and four runs in 49 at bats with 11 strikeouts against Norris. I wouldn’t worry too much about the Twins getting to Zimmerman last night. Most saw that coming. However, Rosario likely wont be in the lineup in this one, and the Twins aren’t hitting lefties very well anyway. I like the potential for Norris at this price, but his upside is capped since Detroit probably wont let him go more than five innings.
Mike Montgomery ($5,300): Arizona is only hitting .171 against Montgomery in 41 at bats with a homer and two runs. The downside is that Montgomery only has five strikeouts. The thing that sticks out here is that Montgomery’s ERA is a run better on the road and Arizona’s offense is much worse at home. Don’t expect a huge game because of the lack of strikeouts, but Montgomery could wind up in the mid teens. That’s not bad for this price.
Milwaukee Brewers against Michael Lorenzen:
The Brewers slugged four homers and drove in 15 against Lorenzen in just 68 at bats. This year promises not to be any better. Granderson, Schoop, Orlando Arcia, and Braun have the homers. Cap this off with a scorching Christian Yelich,, and you have a pretty good stack here. Moose and Travis Shaw are worth a look as well.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Yovani Gallardo:
You could put a AA team (or the Mets) against Gallardo right now, and I think I would still stack on him. Gallardo has given up 11 runs in his last two starts. Only Gomez and Kiermaier have homered against Gallado so far, but the Rays have never faced him either. That means that Mallex, Bauers, and Matt Duffy have never faced Gallardo. I think you could use any Ray tonight and be pretty happy with the results.
Chicago Cubs vs. Matt Andriese:
No, the Cubs aren’t playing the Rays. Andriese has actually been with Arizona for almost two months. This will be his first start with Buchholz now out for the season. Andriese wont go deep into this game. The Cubs put up five runs on Corbin and company last night. More should be in store here. I like Rizzo and Bryant regardless of if you are stacking or not. You can add Zobrist, Baez, and Happ or Heyward to attack Andriese here.
Oakland Athletics vs. Tyler Skaggs:
The A’s are hitting .324 with five homers and 17 runs in 111 at bats against Skaggs. There is some fantasy value here. Khrush and Marcus Semien each have two homers against Skaggs. Lucroy has the other. Piscotty, Chad Pinder, Lowrie, and Matt Chapman are all hitting .333 or better. You can form a very affordable stack here.
Houston Astros vs. Wade LeBlanc:
Top Tier:
Be it Matz or Jason Vargas that toes the rubber for the Mets, I want at least Rhys Hoskins in my lineup. Franco, Hernandez, and Asdrubal Cabrera are tempting as well since both of those Mets lefties have struggled against the Phillies this year. If it is Vargas, go after Jose Bautista. Bautista has homered three times against Vargas in 21 at bats.
Bryce Harper and Juan Soto continue to be about the only Nationals bats that I’m interested in against righty pitching. I don’t expect a lot of runs here, so using more than these two seems risky at best.
Austin Gomber has been hit pretty hard in his last three starts. I like Ronald Acuna and Albies here to go after him. Freeman hits lefties well enough that he is worth a look if you want to make a Braves mini stack.
Francisco Lindor has both of the homers off of Carlos Rodon, so if you are going to go after him, use Lindor. Jose Ramirez is 7-25(.280) with four RBI, but you may be disappointed if Ramirez doesn’t hit a homer, which he hasn’t off of Rodon yet.
Goldschmidt is the only Diamondback to homer off of Montgomery so far, but his home struggles are well documented.
Liam Hendriks has not pitched well against the Angels, but he is still just the opener. Trout is in play against this entire pitching staff. So is Calhoun. After that, I would go with Andrelton Simmons but not really anything else.
Starling Marte, Josh Bell, and Pablo Reyes look like a very good Pirates mini stack against Eric Skoglund. Skoglund has a 6.19 ERA in 10 starts and a 7.15 ERA in four road starts. The Pirates could put up some pretty big point totals here.
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Middle Tier:
The Rockies are freaking awful on the road, but to me Kershaw still looks overpriced considering all of the other elite pitchers on the slate. Arenado is 16-52(.308) with three homers and seven RBI against Kershaw. CarGo has homered three times as well, so he may be worth a look on the cheap.
I’m not going to stack on Dylan Bundy, but he has given up six homers to Toronto in only 95 at bats so far. Aledmys Diaz has two of them. Grichuk, Smoak, and Morales have one as well. So does Russell Martin, but that is his only hit in 11 tries against Bundy.
I’m certainly not opposed to throwing Puig at Freeland considering he is hot right now and has homered twice off of Freeland in just 12 at bats. I’m not really interested in any other Dodgers, though you could make a case for Justin Turner since he is 11-20 against Freeland.
Anibal Sanchez has good numbers against most teams, but the Cardinals aren’t one of them. We saw the Redbirds get Folty last night, so I like DeJong here again. Yadi Molina and Matt Adams have both homered against Sanchez in the past, to they are good plays as well. Matt Carpenter in a park that caters to lefties is never a bad idea either.
Jose Abreu has all five homers and 12 of the 14 RBI against Corey Kluber. Maybe it’s time to pounce on his depressed price, but you also know that Abreu has nothing, just like the rest of his teammates, against Kluber this year.
Chase Anderson has struggled at home and doesn’t have great numbers against the Reds, so this is the time to go after him with Schebler and Gennett and maybe Billy Hamilton for good measure. Suarez has homered twice against Anderson, but he is just 3-17 overall.
I kind of want to stack against Holland, but he is kind of like Miley last night. He always flirts with disaster, but rarely has to deal with said implosion. The right handed power in this lineup was mostly quiet against Suarez last night, and Holland is about the same pitcher. Renfroe and Hosmer have homered against Holland before. The cheap power of Franmil Reyes is tempting as well, but history says not to go too crazy here. Holland has actually been better on the road than at home this year.
Bargain Shoppers:
Mike Leake has not been terrible against the Astros. In fact, most of the damage has been done by cheap Astros. Gattis is the only Astro to homer off of Leake. He has two. Marwin Gonzalez is 6-11 with a pair of RBI. Tony Kemp is 3-5 so far against Leake. All of htem are under $4,000. Bregman is the only other Astro hitting over .300 against Leake. He is 4-6.
This is mostly a bullpen day for the Astros, but their bullpen is pretty damn good. I may take a shot with a cheap Mariner like Kyle Seager, but beyond that, I don’t see a ton of value here. Segura and Cruz are worth a look, but are not a huge priority.
I don’t really trust Lucchesi, and there are better pitchers to use for less than his price. I would really consider riding Longoria while he is hot, but beyond that, this offense isn’t all that good. I am a pretty big fan of Brandon Crawford cleaning up at his price though.
Joey Gallo is the only Ranger to drive in a run against Blake Snell. It was on a solo homer.
Chris Davis is 8-23(.348) with four homers and five RBI off of Aaron Sanchez if you feel like chasing an Oriole tonight. I wouldn’t recommend it though. They were shut down by Borucki last night, who has been awful on the road.
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