Fantasy Football Week 3: Fact or Fiction?

GLENDALE, AZ – SEPTEMBER 09: Running back David Johnson #31 of the Arizona Cardinals rushes the football against the Washington Redskins during the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on September 9, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. The Redskins defeated the Cardinals 24-6. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) fantasy football /

Welcome to another edition of Fantasy Football Fact or Fiction! Each Tuesday, I’ll be examining a few fantasy football questions based on what transpired the previous week. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @BenMcD_Sports to let me know if you agree or disagree with my takes! Thanks for reading!

Fact or Fiction? Patrick Mahomes will keep up his blistering hot start.

Fiction. A regression is coming. Mahomes is currently on pace to toss 80 touchdowns, which would only be 25 more than the record 55 touchdowns thrown by Peyton Manning in 2013. In fact, this tweet perfectly explains why Mahomes is primed for a regression.

Mahomes' touchdown rate of 18.2% is more than twice that of Carson Wentz's league-breaking rate of 7.5% in 2017.
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) September 17, 2018

Before you start throwing stones at me, it’s important for me to state that I do still believe Mahomes can be a top 5 quarterback, regression and all. What has surprised me more than anything about his scorching start has been that so little of his fantasy production has come on the ground. Mahomes has scored 70.1 fantasy points through two games, with only 3.9 of those points coming from rushing attempts. I expect that as teams are able to gather more film on him, we’ll see him begin to make more plays with his legs.

Even though his passing totals are headed for an inevitable decrease, his increased rushing totals should help to make up the difference. Kansas City has given their young quarterback the most explosive set of weapons in the league, and there will be weeks where Mahomes pops off for huge numbers. So while his blistering hot start isn’t sustainable, he’s still an every week starter with one of the highest ceilings at the position.

Fact or Fiction? David Johnson isn’t the same running back we saw in 2016.

Fiction. The question isn’t whether or not David Johnson is still a supremely talented NFL running back. The question is, will the Cardinals coaching staff ever figure out how to properly utilize his talents. Thanks to @NFLDraftJoey for the work it takes to compile these stats!

As you can see, the Cardinals seemed content to let David Johnson run up the gut against 8 man fronts all day long. Only giving him one carry on the perimeter is inexcusable. In fact, only giving him 13 carries is inexcusable! You can’t even blame the negative game script for his lack of overall touches, because he was only targeted twice in the passing game! There’s no reason to believe that David Johnson isn’t still the extraordinarily talented weapon on offense we saw a few years ago. It just appears that he is being hampered by poor coaching.

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However, in a bit of good news, Cardinals Head Coach Steve Wilks just promised to use Johnson out of the slot more often, starting in week 3. If the David Johnson owner in your fantasy football league is panicking, this is the perfect time to buy low.

Fact or Fiction? O.J. Howard is cementing his spot as a TE1.

Fact. In all the noise and commotion caused by Fitzpatrick lighting the world on fire, a very interesting development has taken place in Tampa Bay. That timeshare between O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate? Yeah. That’s not a timeshare anymore. Take a look at how the two players compare to one another.

Week 1
O.J. Howard – 2 catches, 52 yards, 0 touchdowns while playing 65% of the snaps.
Cameron Brate – 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns while playing 36% of the snaps.
Week 2
O.J. Howard – 3 catches, 96 yards, 1 touchdown while playing 79% of the snaps.
Cameron Brate – 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns while playing 24% of the snaps.

ESPN.com shows that Howard is currently owned in only 21.5% of all fantasy football leagues! Through two weeks, only six other tight ends have scored more points than the 2nd year pro out of Alabama. When researching stats for this article, I was shocked to find out that in week two, Cameron Brate actually finished third in snaps behind O.J. Howard and another Bucs tight end named Anthony Auclair. I think we can officially put the fears of a tight end timeshare to bed. O.J. Howard is the man in Tampa Bay. If you are in need of a tight end, he is the top fantasy football waiver wire pickup of the week!

Fact or Fiction? It’s possible to stack too many players from one game into a DFS lineup.

Fiction. Did you watch Sunday’s game between the Chiefs and Steelers? Do you think anyone was worried about being overexposed to that game? The lineup that won the DraftKings Millionaire contest featured 5 players from that shootout! It was the same story in week 1 when Tampa Bay and New Orleans were seemingly having a contest to see which team could score 100 points first. The lineup that won the DraftKings Millionaire contest that week featured multiple players from that game as well. Vegas currently projects the Chiefs-49ers and the Falcons-Saints to be the two highest scoring games in week 3. History says it wouldn’t be a bad idea to make a lineup loaded down with players from these two games.

Next. Fantasy Football - Waiver Wire for Week 3. dark