DFS NFL Game by Game Breakdown, Week 3

We’re ready to try and conquer the DFS NFL world again in Week 3 and the Game By Game Breakdown is here to help!

Week 2 wasn’t a bad week for me, but it wasn’t anything to write home about. I will say for the first time I tried head to heads instead of 50/50’s and that showed some solid results. I went 8/10 which is a better success rate than I’ve had in 50/50’s in the past so that could be something that you may want to try. It also could have been a one week anomaly, but I’m interested to see how it goes again this week. This slate is very interesting because some of the more popular offenses aren’t on this one due to scheduling. Let’s get to work on the 13 games we have on hand this week!

DFS NFL – Saints at Falcons – O/U of 53, Falcons -3

Saints Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 30th, 28.4       RB – 3rd, 10.6      WR – 32nd, 43.3      TE – 10th, 4.5       D/ST – 31st, 1.0 PPG 

Matt Ryan‘s game log is skewed by his two rushing touchdowns last week but I wouldn’t let that stop me from using him in cash this week. He’s only the 13th most expensive quarterback on the board and draws a Saints defense that hasn’t quite found their way yet and is on the road for the first time. The numbers for the Saints against receivers won’t stay this bad for the season, but Julio Jones is under $8,000 and for now, New Orleans is the worst team against receivers in football. The Saints  have given up the fourth most passing yards, 12 plays of 20+ yards, 3 of 40+ yards and a 133.0 passer rating against, worst in the league.

New Orleans has been stout against the running back so far but Tevin Coleman will once again have the full workload to himself. Even at $6,400 in what reads as a bad matchup, he’s still firmly in play. Coleman didn’t find the end zone last week(greedy Matt Ryan, somehow rushing for two touchdowns) but Coleman still scored a very respectable 19.5 DraftKings points on just his yardage and receptions. Austin Hooper is cheap and is play the second most snaps on the team and saw five targets in his last game. Rookie Calvin Ridley caught the touchdown last week and is intriguing but Mohamed Sanu saw 20 percent more of the snaps than the 55 percent Ridley saw. The targets flipped to Ridley in Week 2 as opposed to Sanu in Week 1.

Falcons Players To Target 

Cash Options – Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman

GPP Options – Austin Hooper, Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu

Falcons Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 15th, 15.8     RB – 26th, 21.7     WR – 17th, 23.8     TE – 7th, 3.1     D/ST – 20th, 5.5 PPG 

I basically want all the Alvin Kamara this week. Atlanta gets destroyed by pass catching backs as we saw last week and we’ve seen for well over a year now. He’s in line for one of the bigger games on the slate and even at the highest price on the board, it’s not a real fun proposition to not play him this week. I don’t think it’s out of line to suggest he’s got a floor of 20-22 points. It’s not being talked about all that much but Drew Brees is on about a 50 TD pace right now. Granted, it’s only two games and one of them was a total shootout but Brees is more of what we knew him to be through his career. Michael Thomas is the NFL reception leader through two weeks and he’s demanding such a large target share, he deserves to to be at the top of the pricing tier for receivers this week. The only other player I’d take a shot at is Ted Ginn in a GPP with a target percentage over 15. The New Orleans offense is very easy to figure out right now.

Saints Players to Target 

Cash Options – Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas

GPP Options – Ted Ginn

DFS NFL – Packers at Redskins – O/U of 45.5, Packers -3.5

Packers Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 27th, 23.8     RB – 10th, 13.4     WR – 29th, 32.2     TE – 14th, 5.8     D/ST – 12th, 8.0 PPG 

I’m not all that interested in too many players from this side of the game. The passing offense hasn’t quite clicked yet with all of the wide receivers and I’m not sure just how well they mesh with Alex Smith since they don’t get a lot of separation. Chris Thompson already has 19 receptions, 3rd in NFL behind the aforementioned Michael Thomas and Christian McCaffrey but he’s in a crowded range of running backs that I tend to like better from a volume perspective. I’d bet that the Redskins need to chase this game more often than not so he’s still a solid option, but at some point the other receivers have to get more involved…I think. Jordan Reed will draw some attention but my fear is he’s only playing 50 percent of snaps. The good news is he has a 17.8 percent target share to go along with 2 red zone targets but there are better options on the board I believe.

Redskins Players to Target 

Cash Options – Chris Thompson

GPP Options – Jordan Reed

Redskins Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 2nd, 7.1     RB – 18th, 17     WR – 4th, 13.5       TE – 17th, 6.3     D/ST – 9th, 9.0 PPG 

Washington has been tough so far on the defensive side of the ball, but the quality of opponent can be questioned a little bit. Quarterback is so loaded(as usual) so I’m not too thrilled to pay up for Aaron Rodgers this week, but we all know what he can do anytime he steps on the field. The backfield is too risky this week with the return of Aaron Jones because we don’t know how either back is going to be treated. You can always play Davante Adams provided Rodgers is the quarterback but two of my favorite plays from this side are the cheapest options in Geronimo Allison, who is only $4,500. I’ll likely lean towards playing the cheapest between him and Randall Cobb almost every week. Cobb has a 20 percent lead in snaps but the targets are basically the same and Allison is leading Cobb 2-0 in red zone looks. Jimmy Graham might be one of the better targets for tight end. He saw 8 targets and had a touchdown called back last week and is still only $4,900. Perhaps the best news was his usage, with 75 percent of the snaps and a 15 aDOT. If they’re deploying him as a downfield threat, the Green Bay passing game is going to be tough to deal with.

Packers Players to Target 

Cash Options – Jimmy Graham

GPP Options – Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, Randall Cobb

DFS NFL – Colts at Eagles – O/U of 47.5, Eagles -6.5

Colts Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 12th, 14.8     RB – 22nd, 18.1      WR – 7th, 17.9      TE – 11th, 4.9     D/ST – 17th, 7.0 PPG 

Philly quarterback Carson Wentz is back for this game but his offense is pretty beat up right now. Wentz is also in a weird middle ground for pricing and I’m not sure how much exposure I’ll have to him in this game. I will say that since the offense is beat up, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz have seen about 11 targets a game each and I don’t think that changes this week. The one player I will have a lot of(along with everyone else) is Corey Clement. Jay Ajayi is expected to miss this game as of this writing and Clement got 11 touches last week on under 50 percent of the snaps. If Ajayi misses, those touches might come close to doubling and he’s just too cheap to get away from in cash games. In fact, I would suspect pairing Clement with Kamara is going to be one of the more popular routes in attacking this slate for cash. The offense is hard to project with Wentz seeing his first action and all the injuries they’re currently dealing with. Dropping into the NFL season with no preseason action after a torn ACL isn’t the easiest thing on the planet.

Eagles Players to Target 

Cash Options – Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz, Corey Clement(free square in cash)

GPP Options – Carson Wentz, Philly D/ST

Eagles Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 22nd, 19.4     RB – 4th, 11.5      WR – 28th, 31.7      TE – 24th, 9.0     D/ST – 11th, 8.0 PPG 

Andrew Luck is so cheap that the price tag has to tempt us. Philly has given up the fifth most passing yards, four touchdowns and 10 explosive passing plays, two of which were 40+ yards and  came last week against Tampa Bay. The problem is Luck has yet to throw down the field very often, as evidenced by his number one option. T.Y. Hilton is seeing 11 targets a game but also is at an 8.2 aDOT, which is 4 yards lower than Luck’s last healthy season in 2016. I definitely want to be on that first game that trend changes. Philly is tied for eighth in sacks this season and the Indly offensive line is going to have their hands full. You can’t play any of the other running backs because none of the them played over 40 percent of the snaps last week and that’s not something you can bank on in fantasy. I’m still not falling for the Eric Ebron fake out to this point. Ebron saw his snaps go from 45 percent to 27 percent last week and Jack Doyle is seeing the most snaps on the team. I’m always going to be more interested in the player on the field more and with more involvement in the passing game. A crazy low-owned play here could be the Colts defense. It’s a tough thing to target Wentz, but you have no idea what he’s going to look like in his first game in over a year. If he’s rusty and the offense struggles, Indy could have a decent day at near minimum price.

Colts Players to Target 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle, Indy D/ST

DFS NFL – Bills at Vikings – O/U 42, Vikings -16.5

Bills Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 29th, 24.6     RB – 30th, 29.9      WR – 21st, 25.9      TE – 19th, 7.9      D/ST – 32nd, 0.5 PPG 

You can legitimately load up here. As long as Dalvin Cook isn’t injured, it’s full steam ahead as the Bills are the worst team in football at defending the running back since last year. If Cook is out or limited, Latavius Murray enters the conversation but that’s only worth it if we know Cook is out. DraftKings priced him to the point where you can’t play him if Cook is healthy, which is fine. It’s just something to be aware of. Kirk Cousins is great and the receivers are interesting just because of who Tre’Davious White covers. At a guess, I’d say he gets more Stefon Diggs so I’d prefer Adam Thielen who’s $100 more expensive. That’s also a guess because we don’t know how the game unfolds. Kyle Rudolph is totally fine and he saw a bump to eight targets from the two he got in Week 1. For perspective on his price, Greg Olsen is more expensive and he’s nowhere close to playing right now. The Minnesota D/ST should be the number one in pricing but I have a really tough time paying $4,300 for a defense. This game shouldn’t be competitive for very long.

Vikings Players to Target 

Cash Options – Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook or Latavius Murray if Cook is out, Vikings D/ST

GPP Options – Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph

Vikings Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 7th, 12.5     RB – 6th, 11.8       WR – 11th, 19.5      TE – 25th, 9.5      D/ST – 6th, 10.5 PPG 

I’m not sure I would play a Bills player if you paid me to. This team is a disaster and they’re the biggest underdog on a slate unequivocally. Minnesota has one of the nastiest defenses in football, despite giving up 29 points last week. That’s just how good Aaron Rodgers is. They have no receivers that can win consistently against the Vikings secondary. On top of that, LeSean McCoy is dealing with a rib injury and might not play. No thank you on this side.

Bills Players to Target – None 

DFS NFL – Raiders at Dolphins – O/U of 43.5, Dolphins -3

Raiders Defensive Ranks 2018

QB – 16th, 15.9     RB – 27th, 22.9     WR – 13th, 20.7      TE – 5th, 2.9      D/ST – 30th, 2.5 PPG 

I really want to use Kenyan Drake since the Raiders are giving up 5.7 per carry, the worst mark in the NFL. My hesitation is the pain that Frank Gore might be in this backfield. Don’t get me wrong, Gore should be a first ballot Hall of Fame player. However, he’s a thorn for people who want to play Drake because we saw the snap percentage come closer to equal this past week. Drake saw his snaps drop16 percent and Gore went up 12 percent from Weeks 1-2 and that gives me a little pause. The good news is Drake is still out-touching him 32-18 in total but that gap also closed a little last week. Drake also has four red zone rushing attempts to two for Gore so I think Drake is playable, he’s just not the slam dunk he would be if Gore wasn’t around. Ryan Tannehill might be the last usable QB at $5,300 since he brings a little bit of rushing upside as well. You need those 24 rushing yards per game since he’s only averaging 199 passing yards a game. Maybe someone can inform him to throw the ball towards Kenny Stills a little more. He has the most snaps but is fourth in targets among receivers and his aDOT wasn’t above seven yards this past week. There’s too many receiving hands in this pie to be that interested. The Dolphins defense has been solid to start the year. I don’t fully believe in it but the Raiders aren’t the scariest matchup either. They’re definitely on the GPP radar with Oakland coming all the way east.

Dolphins Players to Target

Cash Options – Kenyan Drake, Ryan Tannehill(if you love the rest of your lineup)

GPP Options – Dolphins D/ST, Kenny Stills

Dolphins Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 3rd, 8.9      RB – 23rd, 19       WR – 3rd, 13.1      TE – 18th, 7.8     D/ST – 3rd, 13.0 PPG 

The Raiders squad might not be the most exciting in this spot but that’s also because I don’t have a lot of belief in their passing game yet. Maybe this is a Marshawn Lynch spot since the game is expected to be close and he’s under $5,000. Lynch isn’t always the best option on DraftKings because of his lack of passing game chops but he should get reasonable volume in this one. He saw 18 rushes last week when they were up and it would be very hard to turn away from a similar touch total at that price. I pretty much always get Amari Cooper wrong and the Miami secondary might be the best part of their defense. I give him a ton of credit for going off in Denver but I’m not positive he’ll do it again. The Dolphins have been the third toughest team against receivers so far and that’s something to consider. Jared Cook did the most Jared Cook thing ever last year and went from 12 targets in Week 1 to four in Week 2. He’s on the radar but nothing I’m going to force into a lineup by any stretch. This game doesn’t carry a super high over/under and there’s not too much to write home about.

Raiders Players to Target 

Cash Options – Marshawn Lynch

GPP Options – Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Jared Cook

DFS NFL – Broncos at Ravens – O/U of 43.5, Ravens -4.5

Broncos Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 18th, 17.9     RB – 10th, 13.8      WR – 18th, 25.6      TE – 29th, 11.5     D/ST – 15th, 7.0 PPG 

The Broncos haven’t been great against wide receivers so far, which is an odd thing for them. They’re 12th in yards given up and haven’t faced a murderers row of wideouts so far this year. I’m only going to use him in tournaments but John Brown has the talent to beat them deep, and has been used as a downfield player so far. His aDOT is spiked over 19 yards and even though he’s seeing roughly the same amount of targets as Michael Crabtree, Brown is producing double the points per target. I don’t want either back because it’s basically a 50/50 split in some respects. Buck Allen has the passing role, garnering a split of 15-3 in targets over Alex Collins. They’re shared the red zone work so even though Collins might be more talented, the Ravens coaching staff doesn’t see it that way. I wish there was a tight end to use in this spot because Denver has had trouble with them so far. Unfortunately, Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams and Mark Andrews don’t have enough targets to be viable. They’re all seeing a few a game and it’s a complete dice role as to who has more looks. Through two games, Boyle has 10, Andrews has eight and Williams has six. It’s just enough to ruin all three players.

Ravens Players to Target 

Cash Options – None

GPP  Options – John Brown, Alex Collins/Buck Allen if you think you have a read on how the game goes, Ravens D/ST

Ravens Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 8th, 14.6     RB – 2nd, 9.2       WR – 14th, 23.1       TE – 14th, 6.0      D/ST – 13th, 8.0 PPG 

A lot of my interest on the Denver side is going to come down to the status of C.J. Mosley for Baltimore. If he misses, I’d be much more likely to play some Denver pieces like Emmanuel Sanders or Demaryius Thomas or even Phillip Lindsay. We already know that Baltimore has no Jimmy Smith out at corner and Mosley is one of their best defensive players.One of the reasons a player like Buck Allen for the Ravens doesn’t move the needle for me is because Lindsay is the same price and he’s been tearing it up in the Denver backfield. He’s not going to get the lion’s share of the work but that hasn’t stopped him from posting consecutive games with 100+ yards from scrimmage. $4,600 is a reasonable price for him and he’s my favorite Denver back to play until further notice. Thomas let a lot of people down last week with a five reception game for all of 18 yards, but I’d go back to him this week. All of his metrics looked solid, from snaps, targets, air yards and everything else. It’s a weird and frustrating game for him but sometimes those things happen. He’s significantly cheaper than Sanders and it might be the better play to take the savings for 10+ targets again, which is exactly what he’ll have. There’s some value to be had in this game but I think most of the plays are best suited for tournaments.

Broncos Players to Target 

Cash Options – Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders(Thomas better points per dollar play)

GPP Options – Phillip Lindsay, Case Keennum, Denver D/ST

DFS NFL – Bengals at Panthers – O/U of 43.5, Panthers  -3

Bengals Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 20th, 18.9      RB – 13th, 15.8      WR – 15th, 23.7       TE – 32nd, 15.3      D/ST – 5th, 11.0 PPG 

If there’s a quarterback that can get me off playing Matt Ryan in cash, It’s definitely Cam Newton. Coming off a 30+ point game last week, he is way too cheap at home and so far his floor game has been 18 points. That’s still three times return on his salary and I really think DraftKings kind of whiffed on his price this week. We all know the type of ceiling Newton brings every single week. Christian McCaffrey is always viable on DK but I don’t know how much I’ll have of him this week. He’s the third most expensive back on the slate after putting up big number las week. As things stand now, I’m much more interested in running backs who aren’t quite as expensive and might have the same amount of touches this week. It’s hard to be too critical of a player who’s second in the NFL in receptions through two weeks and sees a good spike in production when Greg Olsen has been out. Receivers Devin Funchess and D.J. Moore both on the radar, but I don’t think they’ll be core plays for me.  Moore only saw 25 percent of the snaps last week and only saw two targets. He’s a big gamble but you can hope coach Ron Rivera wasn’t just blowing smoke when he  said they need to put more on his plate this week. The super sneaky lay of the week might well be Ian Thomas. The young tight end  played 95 percent of the snaps and Bengals are the worst team in the league vs the position. On top of that, Thomas is just $2,800 and he dropped a potential touchdown last week.

Panthers Players to Target 

Cash Options – Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey

GPP Options – Devin Funchess, D.J. Moore, Ian Thomas

Panthers Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 23rd, 19.7      RB – 15th, 16.5      WR – 10th, 18.6       TE – 17th, 7.4       D/ST – 19th, 6.5 PPG 

With the injury to Joe Mixon, Gio Bernard is in play despite not the best matchup due to the volume of touches he’s going to get. There’s every reason to think he’ll touch the ball at least 18 times in this one and the price is certainly right. There is a really good pivot from him for only $100 more which we’ll get into later. A.J. Green is always a play you can turn to but there’s nothing that sticks out other than he’s an incredible receiver. What is interesting is a possible punt at the receiver position in Tyler Boyd. Last week, Boyd had the highest aDOT of any Bengals receiver and he was tied for team lead in targets with 9. He found the end zone on his way to 21.1 DK points but is still priced at just $3,700. I’m not huge on Andy Dalton on the road in this spot so I likely would only play Boyd as a price play from the receiving corps. It’s encouraging to see Tyler Eifert bump his snaps up to 65 percent as he did this past week but he’s still not terribly involved in the offense, seeing only a 10 percent target share so far. Even though the price isn’t crippling, I’m likely to look elsewhere this week.

Bengals Players to Target 

Cash Options – Gi Bernard

GPP Options – Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green

DFS NFL – Giants at Texans – O/U of 41.5, Texans -6

Giants Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 8th, 14.1       RB – 16th, 16.7       WR – 6th, 17.3      TE – 1st, 1.25      D/ST – 29th, 2.5 PPG 

The Texans offense is always very easy to breakdown. Deshaun Watson is always on the board and he did throw for over 300 yards last week while adding on 40 rushing yards. It might not be what we saw last year from him but it’s unwise to have those expectations. We also know where the ball is going to go because DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are basically the Denver receivers in that they’re demanding over 50 percent of the targets basically every time they play together. On top of knowing where the targets are heading, we also know they’re high value targets since both players have an aDOT over 14.0. Fuller and Watson in particular really like playing with each other –

The Giants have been tough on quarterbacks and wide receivers so far but they’ve also faced a Jaguars offense that was on the road and didn’t get very aggressive and they faced a Dallas offense that has one skill player worth worrying about and he’s not a receiver or quarterback. I’m not sure I’m ready to take the ranks New York has at face value quite yet. Fuller under $6,000 really stands out in this spot. Lamar Miller at $5,000 really isn’t bad since he’s almost locked in for  18-20 touches basically every week. As usual, I don’t expect a massive game from him but you don’t get that workload at that price tag all the time.

Texans Players to Target 

Cash Options – Texans D/ST, DeAndre Hopkins

GPP Options – Will Fuller, Deshaun Watson

Texans Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 12th, 15.1      RB – 19th, 17.0       WR – 5th, 15.3     TE – 23rd, 8.9     D/ST – 24th, 5.0 PPG 

If you’re looking for a clinic on how to play offensive line in the NFL, you might not want to watch the game film from Sunday night for the Giants. They really struggled and gave up six sacks while getting nothing going offensively until they scored a garbage time touchdown. The poor line play is making life difficult to figure out these offensive pieces. I think Saquon Barkley might have the exact same game he had Sunday night, with10+ targets and receptions. This might have to act as the running game right now because it doesn’t look promising as the traditional way of moving the ball. Odell Beckham Jr. is always in play because he can take a four yard slant and be gone in a heartbeat but I think that’s kind of what you’re banking on right now. The line can’t be trusted to give Eli Manning time to throw and there’s a question of him being accurate enough at this stage of his career. Manning only went 5-13 on throws over 10 yards from the line of scrimmage in this past game. Three of the four main defensive lineman for the Cowboys were above average in distance from the quarterback Sunday, which speaks to how poor the line is. Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard each have a game as the third highest targeted player so it’s tough to separate them for fantasy right now. The Houston defense let a lot of folks down last week but are seventh in the league in sacks and should get Jadeveon Clowney back this week.

Giants Players to Target 

Cash Options – Saquon Barkley

GPP Options – Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram

DFS NFL – Titans at Jaguars – No Line

Titans Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 19th, 18.2      RB – 5th, 11.7      WR – 31st, 35.8        TE – 4th, 2.6      D/ST – 10th, 9.0 PPG 

We don’t have a line in this game yet because we’re waiting on the status of Marcus Mariota but Jacksonville will definitely be favored in this one for sure. Who we play from the jags likely depends on the status of Leonard Fournette. I f he makes his return to the lineup, I might not be as interested in the offense. CBS analyst Jamey Eisenberg pointed out on the podcast this week that when the Jaguars have Fournette as a battering ram and they know the defense can rule the game, the offense is far more conservative. That holds true for Blake Bortles, as illustrated with these splits shared by Al Zeidenfeld –

If Fournette is out again, Tennessee has been weaker against receivers and I’d have a lot of interest in Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook. They are behind Donte Moncrief in targets but Cole has the most snaps and they’ve both been far more productive than Moncreif, lapping him in receptions and yards. T.J. Yeldon was a big flop last week and part of that was Corey Grant played 42 percent of the snaps. He always looks dangerous when he touches the ball so he’s a fine cheap option.He’s also an exact price point pivot off of Core Clement. As much of a smash spot as this is for the Jacksonville defense, $4,000 is usually that threshold that I’m not willing to cross when I pay for a defense. If I really love my lineup and I have that amount left, I’ll play them but I’m not willing to sacrifice other portions of my lineup for it. I will likely be close to off this side of the game if Fournette is in but we’ll see how the week of practice goes for him.

Jaguars Players to Target

Cash Options – Blake Bortles, Keelan Cole, Jacksonville D/ST

GPP Options – Leonard Fournette if active, Yeldon/Grant if he’s not, Dede Westbrook, Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Jaguars Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 4th, 11.8      RB – 20th, 17.6      WR – 8th, 18.4       TE – 7th, 4.2      D/ST – 8th, 9.0 PPG 

This Tennessee offense has been a disaster and the early word from coach Mike Vrabel is Marcus Mariota will not play until he’s healthy. That’s not exactly a lot of confidence so I wouldn’t count on him at this stage. Even if he does, I don’t care for playing offensive players against the Jaguars from a good offense, let alone the Titans. Dion Lewis led Derrick Henry in snaps by a 55-45 percent split which means they’re both off the table in a bad matchup. Corey Davis is the only receiver of note and I wouldn’t touch him against this secondary.

Titans Players to Target – None 

DFS NFL – 49ers at Chiefs – O/U of 56.5, Chiefs -7

49ers Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 26th, 22.5      RB – 8th, 13.3       WR – 25th, 30.6      TE – 22nd, 8.7      D/ST – 22nd, 5.0 PPG 

This will probably be the new normal for the Chiefs, but it’s everyone in the boat again for them this week. I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but the bird is the word and that bird is named Patrick Mahomes. He leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 10 and has yet to throw an interception. He’s only $100 cheaper than Aaron Rodgers and I’m scared not to play him in some places, at least. The receivers are very interesting because as amazing as Tyreek Hill is, the price tag is sky high at $8,500. He deserves to be up there but I think I’d rather save $3,400 and play Sammy Watkins. He only has two fewer targets than Hill and he showed off in Pittsburgh. his day could have been even more massive because Mahomes actually did something wrong and missed an easy touchdown –

Travis Kelce is leading the team in targets and he’s my favorite option at the high end of the tight end pool this week. Perhaps the one player that is getting looked over is Kareem Hunt. He’s been on the back burner with the aerial fireworks so far but he’s still getting 68.9 percent of the snaps and is averaging 17.5 touches a game in a high powered offense. He’s cheaper than Tevin Coleman, Chris Thompson and is only $100 more than Gio Bernard. The 49ers haven’t been able to stop running backs for quite a while now so this could be a big breakout game. They allowed nine catches to Theo Riddick last week and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Andy Reid try to exploit that.

Chiefs Players to Target 

Cash Options – Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins

GPP Options – Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill(more just because the price is so high)

Chiefs Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 32nd, 33.9      RB – 28th, 27.2     WR – 29th, 32.9      TE – 31st, 14.1    D/ST – 27th, 3.5 PPG 

To me, this is kind of a put up or shut up time for Jimmy Garoppolo from a fantasy perspective. I really was high on him coming into the season but he’s been a little underwhelming so far. In fairness, he’s been without his number one receiver in Marquise Goodwin for basically all of the first two games but this is the Chiefs defense we’re talking about here. They’ve given up the most passing yards and the gap of 107 yards between them and the Buccaneers says a lot. They’re tied for the second most touchdowns given up and lead the NFL in 20+ yard passing plays allowed. This has to be the spot for Jimmy G. Hopefully Goodwin can make it back in the lineup but if he doesn’t, Pierre Garcon and Dante Pettis are front and center. Pettis is kind of weird because he’s leading the team in snaps but is only fourth in targets. That could change this week. Matt Breida is your current rushing leader and he’s certainly priced pretty nicely in this spot. The Chiefs haven’t been able to stop anyone so far and he’s only $5,400, while averaging 13 touches a game. He’s certainly earning more work as the season progresses. Even at Arrowhead, I’m pretty interested in stacking a Chiefs game once again. I trust Kyle Shanahan to take advantage of this weaker defense for Kansas City Chiefs.

49ers Players to Target 

Cash Options – Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Breida

GPP Options – Dante Pettis, Pierre Garcon, George Kittle, Marquise Goodwin(if healthy)

DFS NFL – Chargers at Rams – O/U of 48.0, Rams -7

Chargers Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 24th, 20.7      RB – 24th, 19.4      WR – 21st, 28.1     TE – 2nd, 2.5     D/ST – 26th, 3.5 PPG 

The Rams offense has more or less picked up right where it left off last year, it’s just gone a little more under the radar with Patrick Mahomes taking the NFL by storm. I’m fine with Jared Goff even though his points haven’t been where they should be yet. His yards per completion, yards per attempt and completion percentage are all up from last year and he’s averaging 40 more yards a game so far. The only stat that’s down is touchdown rate, but Todd Gurley has been swiping almost all of them. That won’t stay constant through the whole season. Speaking of Gurely, I’m going Kamara much heavier this week due to the incredible matchup against the Falcons. Having said that, you know exactly what you’re getting with Gurley. Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are all between 23-27 percent target rate and they really seem to love Cooks so far. Cooks is a little expensive for me this week despite being so involved so I’d rather take the big savings and play Kupp or Woods. They may not have the upside that Cooks does but I definitely feel safer spending less money in this passing attack because it could be anyone in any given week. This offense might be sneaky given the way the slate is shaking out at this point and might be a great GPP stack.

Rams Players to Target 

Cash Options – Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp

GPP Options – Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks

Rams Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 1st, 3.9      RB – 11th, 13.9     WR – 1st, 5.4      TE – 28th, 10.9     D/ST – 2nd, 15.0 PPG 

I legitimately don’t want any Chargers here with the exception of maybe Keenan Allen. it won’t be often he’s the 10th most expensive receiver on a given slate but the matchup certainly isn’t great. The Rams might have the most talented secondary in football so I’m not convinced we get the ceiling game from Allen, despite him commanding  25 percent of the targets in this offense. I truly believe this Rams defense is legitimately this could, because that’s a big limb to step out on with the talent they have. Regardless of my very mild sauce take, I don’t want to pay for Chargers offense unless it was a very contrarian GPP stack.

Chargers Players to Target 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon

DFS NFL – Cowboys at Seahawks – O/U of 41.5, Seahawks -1.0

Cowboys Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 15th, 15.9     RB – 12th, 14.7      WR – 2nd, 9.9       TE – 21st, 8.5      D/ST – 7th, 9.0 PPG 

Well, this game might just be the worst on the slate. Both of these offenses play at a very slow pace, with the Seahawks being 28th in plays per game and Dallas down at 31st. Right off the bat, the opportunity for points is pretty limited. One thing I also know for sure is you can’t touch the Seattle running backs when Rashaad Penny is getting shoved down our throats. Coach Pete Carroll saying that his starting running back(Chris Carson) got gassed playing special teams might be the dumbest thing I’ve heard in a press conference this side of Jon Gruden. If he’s your starter, he doesn’t play special teams. Unless I missed guys like Kamara and McCaffrey covering punts every week. Anyways, this offense is just not very good. All three of Tyler Lockett, Brandon Marshall and Will Dissly are seeing about 15 percent of the targets in a glacier paced offense. That doesn’t cut it for me. Russell Wilson is getting it done for fantasy, regardless of whether it’s garbage time or not. The issue with him is I’d rather play Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Drew Brees and Jimmy Garoppolo around that price tag so I can’t see a reason to jam Russ in for this slate.

Seahawks Players to Target 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Seahawks D/ST

Seahawks Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 16th, 16.8      RB – 19th, 17.1      WR – 23rd, 28.5      TE – 15th, 6.3     D/ST – 18th, 7.0 PPG

This offense is just bad right now, especially for fantasy. Dak Prescott is averaging 165 yards passing, which is incredibly low in this era of football. He’s also yet to clear 15 points so even his floor is gone right now. It’s just Ezekiel Eliot from the Cowboys and there are so many other running backs that he’s going go be low-owned. The plus side is he’s seeing five targets a game which does help raise his floor a bit. The bad news is he’s only averaging 3.3 yards a catch because opposing defenses have absolutely zero fear of the passing game “weapons”. Please, whatever you do, don’t bite on Tavon Austin and his long touchdown from Sunday night. He played under 40 percent of snaps and saw two targets, one of which ended up going for a touchdown. That’s never going to be a recommended play from me. At least a guy like Eric Ebron sees targets with his low snap percentage. The Cowboys defense could be somewhat of an option at near minimum price, if you believe Seattle will continue to struggle on offense.

Cowboys Players to Target 

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Ezekiel Elliot, Cowboys D/ST

DFS NFL – Bears at Cardinals – O/U of 37.5, Bears -6.5

Bears Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 19th, 18.4     RB – 1st, 7.7      WR – 30th, 33.9      TE – 16th, 7.3      D/ST – 2nd, 15.5 PPG 

The Chicago offense remains a work in progress as Mitchell Trubisky is learning on the job. I’m not real to play him on a large slate since he still is missing some open throws and appears to hit the skids after the Bears run out of scripted plays at the start of the game. He does bring some rushing upside but there’s other options here. Arizona has been getting smashed by backs(giving up the fifth most rushing yards) and Matt Nagy said Jordan Howard needs more carries in his presser this week and it should be a positive game script. He’s a very nice option this week and we can easily play the running back/defense correlation because the Bears are the cheapest of the elite defenses on this slate. Per my podcast partner Adam Pfiefer, the Cardinals have fewer first downs than the Buffalo Bills. Good luck facing Khalil Mack and the rest of that Bears defense. I don’t think Allen Robinson or Trey Burton are the worst options ever, but they’re definitely not in my core player pool this week. It’s mostly just Howard and the defense correlation.

Bears Players to Target 

Cash Options – Jordan Howard, Bears D/ST

GPP Options – Allen Robinson, Mitchell Trubisky, Trey Burton

Cardinals Defensive Ranks 2018 

QB – 21st, 18.9      RB – 32nd, 38     WR – 9th, 18.4      TE – 26th, 9.9      D/ST – 25th, 4.0 PPG 

I wil have not a single Cardinal this week. I wish I could pull the trigger on David Johnson when he’s as low as $7,200 but I can’t do it until we see the Cardinals learn how to use him. I will admit this price is the probably the time you should sprinkle him into tournaments but I probably won’t join you. It’s incredible he’s not seeing a large role in the passing game and they’re just going to continue to run him up the middle. You just gave him a large extension and he’s one of the best backs in football. Learn how to use him. Larry Fitzgerald is dealing with a hamstring injury and even if he plays, does anyone have faith in Sam Bradford to get him the ball against this ferocious Bears defense? I definitely don’t and the Cards have to show me legitimately anything on offense before I’m ready to hit the submit button with them .

Sample Lineup 

QB – Matt Ryan

RB – Alvin Kamara, Corey Clement

WR – Sammy Watkins, Will Fuller, Julio Jones

TE – Ian Thomas

Flex – Kareem Hunt

D/ST – Texans