DraftKings CFB picks September 21: Can we trust Milton?

We have a three game Friday slate on DraftKings to get us primed for the big Saturday slates. All six teams are FBS, but two of these games might be blowouts. Do we stack the close game, or take three high scoring quarters in the blowouts? Let’s take a look at our choices here.

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Top Tier:

McKenzie Milton ($10,500): This is going to be familiar all season long. UCF is going to be favored in every game, and in most by double digits. Milton was a beast against UConn, but threw three picks against FCS South Carolina State in week 2. That could chase some off here. FAU has allowed a whole bunch of passing yards, so expect Milton to get back on track here.

Trace McSorely ($10,300): Illinois is one of the worst defenses at any level of the college spectrum, which is really surprising considering Lovie Smith is their coach. McSorely was saved by his rushing yards last week. He hasn’t had an efficient game as a passer yet, so I can see the risk. However, I’ve watched all of the Illinois games. This unit is seriously horrible. They are the worst defense Penn State has faced so far, and not by a small margin.

Middle Tier:

Chris Robison ($8,100): The Oklahoma transfer has a lot of raw talent, but he is going to have a tough go against a pretty good UCF defense. I usually like my quarterbacks in the mid range with a lot less risk, but the fact is there are only six starters to choose from. Robison has a lot of talent, so I get the upside. That said, there are better options at a lower price.

Gardner Minshew ($7,500): Let’s see here…….we have a quarterback in one of the most pass happy offenses in college going against a team that is among the worst in passing yards allowed. Minshew has averaged 31.7 DraftKings points per game this year, and he may actually top that against USC. This defense is reeling. Minshew is a chalk play, but one that I am definitely willing to use. Minshew has thrown 165 passes in three games. I would consider playing him at twice this price…..

Bargain Shoppers:

J.T. Daniels ($6,300): Daniels has only thrown one touchdown in three games so far. Washington State is actually seventh in the country in passing yards allowed. USC is going to run quite a bit because they have several backs and because Wazzu has struggled to stop the run at times. Daniels wont be much more than a game manager here. He wont take shots down the field, so there is virtually no upside here.

Don’t even think about using an Illinois QB against the Penn State defense. You are just donating money if you use either Bush or Rivers. Neither has been good, and both will probably play, and not very well.

Top Tier:

Devin Singletary ($8,600): Singletary ran for 32 touchdowns last year, but he has found the going tough without a QB to help open things up for him. Singletary will improve as Robison does, but it may still be too early to really rely on him. UCF is in the top 20 against the run and Singletary is only averaging four yards per carry. The volume is there, but it’s hard for Singletary to produce while the offense is one dimensional.

Miles Sanders ($7,900): No one is going to forget Barkley in State College anytime soon, but Sanders has been a serviceable back. For as bad as Illinois’ defense has been, their run defense is solid. Will that make Penn State throw? Probably not, but even if they do, Sanders is involved enough in the passing game that he could still have a strong game here.

Middle Tier:

Adrian Killins ($6,600): Killins only has 17 carries on the season if that tells you anything about the UCF offense. That said, he has found the end zone three times and has caught a handful of passes. Whenever a running back gets this few carries, there is always a risk. Killins would seem to be worth it since UCF isn’t afraid to let him run it in from a few yards out.

James Williams ($6,300): Williams has caught 18 passes in three games, so even if he doesn’t carry the ball more than 15 times a game, the touches are still there. This USC defense is improving, but I still think they are going to have all kinds of problems with this Cougars offense. Williams is heavily involved even if he isn’t carrying the ball all the time. That makes him a pretty strong option for the price.

Bargain Shoppers:

Otis Anderson ($5,200): Even though Anderson is listed behind Killins on the depth chart, he has just as many touchdowns and nearly as many touches. I would rather play Anderson than anyone in that muddled USC backfield situation. You know Anderson is going to see at least ten touches regardless. You can’t say that for any of the USC backs right now.

Mike Epstein ($4,200): Before you blast me for this, realize that the Penn State defense, particularly the run defense, is not what it was. Reggie Corbin will still get touches, but he Illini remained in the game with Epstein carrying most of the load against a decent South Florida team. Illinois literally can’t throw, so they are finding creative ways to get the ball to Epstein and Corbin. Either back is worth using at this deeply discounted price, but Epstein is more likely to break a big play.

Top Tier:

Gabriel Davis ($7,300): Davis is by far the favorite target of Milton to the point where he is the only UCF receiver I would even consider using. Davis has found the end zone in both games, and seems likely to do so again. UCF should throw enough for Davis to put up close to his 22.6 DraftKings points per game average.

Jovon Durante ($7,000): For all of the struggles that Robison has had, Durante is putting up really good numbers. He is the guy that Robison goes to. Durante is averaging almost 100 receiving yards per game, and has scored once in each of the last two weeks. Trusting a receiver in a passing offense that is struggling is a risk, but Durante sees so many targets that is really mitigates the risk.

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Middle Tier:

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,500): Brown carved up the awful Texas secondary last week to the tune of 167 yards. The going is going to be tougher against Washington State, but like Durante, St. Brown sees so many targets that he is worth the risk. USC is going to have a pass to try and keep up to the Leaches, and St. Brown will be the focal point of that attack.

Davontavean Martin ($6,000): How is the leading receiver in this offense so cheap? Martin was targeted a ridiculous 16 times last week. Martin has seen double digit targets in all three games this year. This game wont be any different. He looks like a nice play at this price.

Bargain Shoppers:

KJ Hamler ($5,800): Illinois has struggled so much in the secondary that I have a hard time believing that Penn State wont try to exploit this even though they are mostly a run first team. Hamler is the favorite target of McSorely if and when he throws. If you want to take a shot with a Penn State receiver in this tasty matchup, Hamler is the best option.

Jamire Calvin ($4,400): Calvin is the second most targeted receiver for the Cougars thus far. That stands out to me more than his lack of a touchdown through three games. Calvin will find the end zone sooner or later. For this low of a price, it’s worth finding out if it’s here.

Ricky Smalling ($3,800): Smalling has 13 targets over two games, which leads the team right now. Again, this is a big risk with the awful QB play for the Illini so far, but at this price, Smalling enables us to pay up for a quarterback. When you can get a target leader for this cheap, it’s not always a bad thing. This is a risk worth taking for this low of a price.

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