Texas A&M vs. Alabama preview, odds, prediction, live stream

Alabama and Texas A&M will square off on Saturday afternoon in what will be both the first road game and first SEC game for the Aggies under Jimbo Fisher. We preview the key matchups, odds, make predictions and tell you where and how to watch.

Alabama entered the 2018 season ranked No. 1 for the third straight year. After three weeks, they’re planted solidly atop both the AP and Coaches Polls with a 3-0 record they have blown out all three opponents they’ve faced by an average point differential of 47.3 (170 points scored, 28 points allowed).

The Tide are riding a five-game win streak dating back to last season and are looking to extend that streak as well as Alabama’s eleven-year run of 4-0 starts. It obviously comes as no surprise to see Alabama steamrolling opponents as they’ve been heavily favored in every game so far in 2018.

Texas A&M, on the other hand, has been one of the surprises of the conference and they’ve turned several heads while shooting up to No. 22 after starting the season unranked. Coming off a 7-6 season that resulted in the firing of Kevin Sumlin, most people thought first-year head coach Jimbo Fisher and his staff would be inheriting a program and roster with far more questions than answers, most of which couldn’t be answered in just one season.

But after three games, the Aggies are 2-1 and their only blemish is a 26-28 loss to No. 2 Clemson when they were expected to lose by more than two touchdowns. There may not be moral victories in big-time college football but the narrow loss to Clemson is as close as you’ll get and was as resounding an affirmation as any win that A&M is here to compete, not just to rebuild in 2018.

No. 1 Alabama (3-0, 1-0 in SEC)

Alabama’s offense has averaged 56.7 points (1st in NCAA) and 544.7 yards per game (8th in NCAA) through three games. Led by Tua Tagovailoa and bolstered by Jalen Hurts, Bama is averaging over 300 yards per game through the air. Running backs Damien Harris and Najee Harris have led the way on the ground, combining for close to 400 yards with both averaging close to seven yards per carry. The Tide have a stable of receivers that can stretch the field against any defense in the country.

Defensively, Alabama has one of the best front sevens in the SEC if not all of college football. They have an extremely talented but inexperienced defensive backfield and although their secondary was expected to be the team’s one area of weakness, it hasn’t shown through three games.

No. 22 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-0 in SEC)

Jimbo Fisher’s offense is led by junior running back Trayveon Williams and sophomore quarterback Kellen Mond. Williams is the SEC’s leading rusher with 399 yards and his four rushing scores ties him with Ole Miss’ Scottie Phillips for most in the conference.

Mond, who split time at quarterback last year, struggled over stretches of the season, especially in the middle of A&M’s SEC schedule. Under Jimbo Fisher, Mond has come into his own in 2018, looking like a completely different player. He is currently top three in the SEC in passing yards. Most of his damage has been through the air so far but Mond is extremely athletic and has the ability to extend plays and beat defenses with his legs when he needs to. Through three games, he’s rushed for just over 100 yards and three scores.

One of the biggest keys to this game will be Mond’s ability to move and escape the pocket. The Aggies’ offensive line is still a work in progress and Mond has been sacked nine times already this season.

It’s hard to gauge the defense’s performance only three games into the season but so far they’ve bottled up opposing running games and looked decent against the pass. The glaring concern on defense is turnovers. They have a -2 turnover margin and have only forced one turnover so far this season. That’s something they’ll have to change if they hope to have a chance to upset Bama on the road Saturday.

How to bet and watch Texas A&M vs. Alabama

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 22, 2018
• Kickoff: 3:30 pm EST (2:30 pm Central)
• Location: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
• Stadium: Bryant-Denny Stadium
• TV Info: CBS (Play-by-play: Brad Nessler, Analyst: Gary Danielson)
• Live Stream: CBS Sports Live

Odds and Betting Trends (via Oddsshark)

• Point Spread – Texas A&M vs. Alabama (-27)
• Moneyline – Texas A&M +2000 / Alabama -4000
• Over/Under – 61.5 points
• ATS Records – Texas A&M: 3-0 / Alabama: 3-0
• Over/Under Records – Texas A&M: 1-1 / Alabama: 2-1

Prediction

27 points is a ridiculously high number even if we’re talking about a Power Five team vs. a middle of the road MAC or Sun Belt team, much less two ranked SEC teams. Based on the way Texas A&M hung with No. 2 Clemson, it seems like a no-brainer that they’d be able to come within four touchdowns of the team ranked one spot higher.

I expect Jimbo Fisher to come in with a game plan that takes advantage of Kellen Mond’s athleticism and ability to throw downfield from outside the pocket. Look for Mond to run a number of bootlegs, read options plays, play action, etc. — anything that moves the pocket and at least somewhat neutralizes pressure that Bama’s front seven will apply up the middle. If Mond and the A&M offense execute to perfection, I think they’ll be in this game for the first two quarters.

Bama scored enough points against Ole Miss to cover the 61.5 points by themselves. I think they’ll drop 50-plus on A&M and the Aggies will score a couple of times to bring the total up into the 70-75-plus range.

And since Alabama plays two quarterbacks and usually keeps the first-team offense in with both quarterbacks until late in the game, I’m taking Bama to cover.

Pick: Bet the over and take Alabama to cover the spread.