Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 3

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate prediction, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story. Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

*Funnel Defense refers to a noticeable difference in DVOA between pass defense and rush defense.

Pass Funnel Defenses:

Denver (Pass: 24th, Run: 4th), Houston (Pass: 23rd, Run: 3rd), San Francisco (Pass: 22nd, Run: 9th), Arizona (Pass: 30th, Run: 14th), New Orleans (Pass: 31st, Run: 1st)

San Francisco: 22nd ranked Pass DVOA and 9th ranked Run DVOA

San Francisco will have to travel to Kansas City, to take on the hottest offense in the NFL. While there will certainly be some sort of regression coming for Patrick Mahomes, I’m not too sure that it will be this week. It’s only a two game sample size, but the 49er’s defense has been much more susceptible to the pass than the run. They currently rank 22nd in pass DVOA and 9th in run DVOA. In addition to the obvious advantage that the Kansas City offense will have, the San Francisco offense will also have an easier matchup against the Chiefs defense, that ranks dead last in overall DVOA. If San Francisco can also have success offensively, this would in turn actually be beneficial for the Chiefs offense as well. It could force them to keep their foot on the gas, and increase the pace of the game.

Run Funnel Defenses:

LA Rams (Pass: 3rd, Run: 17th), Washington (Pass: 4th, Run: 28th), Dallas (Pass: 9th, Run: 20th),

Inefficient Defenses Overall:

Kansas City (32nd Overall), Tampa Bay (31st Overall), Buffalo (30th Overall), Detroit (29th Overall)

Detroit: 29th ranked overall, 27th ranked Pass DVOAand 29th ranked Run DVOA

Detroit’s defense doesn’t offer any glaring advantages from a run vs. pass standpoint, but it does appear that the New England Patriots offense could find their rhythm again in Detroit on Sunday night football. Detroit is ranked 29th in overall DVOA, the 4th worst in the league. They’ve given up an average of 37.5 points in their last two games, and the Patriots will be fresh off a loss in Jacksonville. It also not a great sign when reports are circulating that veterans of the team are not happy with new coach, Matt Patricia.

It is important to note that Patricia has spent a majority of his time under Bill Belichick, so maybe he has the formula for success against him. However, Belichick knows Patricia just as much as Patricia knows him, and in that matchup, I’ll take Belichick ten times out of ten. Note that Darius Slay has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday), and looks like he could be doubtful for this game. This would be a huge loss for an already struggling defense.

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Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 3

By Matt McGarvey | Sep 20, 2018