NFL DFS Quick Hits: Week 3 Game by Game Previews
By Joe Metz
Go game-by-game with the NFL DFS Quick Hits and cut the fluff from your preliminary research!
Welcome back to the NFL DFS Quick Hits! Week 2 was not nearly as exciting as week 1, as a large amount of the chalk plays underwhelmed but nonetheless, there were a lot of great plays that came with little to no ownership.
Injuries are starting to make their mark on teams and opening up more opportunities for fantasy players to find some value, which will be especially apparent this week (both with players coming back and going down). Due to time constraints and busy schedule this week, I will be highlighting the main slate and get back to my normal all-inclusive breakdown for week 4.
What are NFL DFS Quick Hits?
For those of who haven’t read my quick hits before, I’m not going to persuade you into plays and tout top plays of the slate. My goal is simple. I want to help lead you in the right direction and cut the fluff when you start your research. I will list the 13 games on the MAIN SLATE and highlight one piece of data, a trend, or notable narrative to help you focus your research.
I will also split up the article to make it an easier read. I will do this by breaking it up between the Thursday, Sunday (1 PM ET games), Sunday afternoon games and the Primetime games on separate slides.
Now, onto week 3!
NFL DFS – Sunday 1PM EST Games
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
A popular play in both weeks 1 and 2, Alvin Kamara‘s ownership may finally see its first drop of the season. After picking apart the Buccaneers defense in week 1, he recorded only 46 rushing yards and 43 receiving yards in week 2. He’s recorded a total of 21 times, showing that the Saints were not bluffing when they said that they wanted to limit his workload a bit. He’s second on the team in targets (21) which does heighten his ceiling, but the lack of usage on the ground could potentially (and hopefully) drive people away. In a game in which the Saints are the 3 point underdog, we could see similar usage in the passing game as we did in week 1, making him a top play yet again.
San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Whatever doubters that Patrick Mahomes may have had leading up to the season are eerily quiet through two weeks. Mahomes has posted unbelievable numbers, throwing for 10 touchdowns without an interception on 582 passing yards and a 69.1% completion rate. He’s utilized every single weapon in the offense with most of the production going to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. All three of them draw another tasty matchup this week, as the 49ers have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to QBs (22.52 per game), 7th most to WR (30.60 per game) and the 11th most to TEs (8.70 per game). All should carry heavy ownership, but there may not be a safer stack this week.
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
A player that seems like he’ll play forever, Marshawn Lynch has found the end zone in consecutive weeks and received 20 touches in his week 2 tilt with the Broncos. He’s proving to be somewhat TD-reliant 65 yards last week, 41 the week prior and minimal 3rd down involvement), but the 3-point spread on this game could offer Lynch a little more involvement. He’s been one of the bright spots in the offense this season and the Dolphins defense was 10th worst in the league last season, allowing 19 fantasy points per game. He’s essentially the only piece in this game that comes with any ounce of safety, and that’s barely saying anything.
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings
Much like last season, the Bills run defense can be your first target when building lineups every single week. Let’s take a look at the RB totals against their defense in the first two weeks:
Week 1 vs BAL: 24 carries, 74 yards and 3 touchdowns, 6 catches for 21 yards
Week 2 vs LAC: 21 carries, 105 yards and 1 touchdown, 9 catches for 59 yards and 2 TDs
Through two weeks, they’ve allowed 4 touchdowns on the ground and an additional 2 through the air to running backs.
If Dalvin Cook is active (currently DTD with hamstring injury), he makes for a great RB2. If he is out and Latavius Murray takes sole reign of the backfield, he comes in as one of the top value plays on the slate.
NFL DFS – Sunday 1PM EST Games (continued)
Indianapolis Colts @ Philadelphia Eagles
Through two weeks, Nelson Agholor (22) and Zach Ertz (23) lead the Eagles team in targets, but the production has been underwhelming. Agholor was able to post 88 yards and a TD last week, but with Nick Foles behind center, their ceilings were limited. This week, that won’t be the case. Carson Wentz has been cleared for the start and with Mike Wallace out with a broken leg, there should be a handful of targets to go around, likely to Agholor and Ertz. The Colts have s allowed 249 passing yards per game this season and ranked 5th worst in the NFL in that category last season (246.6).
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins
Aaron Jones is making his 2018 debut after serving a 2-game suspension to open up the season for the Packers. He’s slated to play behind both Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery, but this could make him a phenomenal leverage play. With Williams and Montgomery combining to average less than 4 yards per carry and unable to find the endzone in the first two weeks, Jones could have his name called sooner rather than later. Last season, he was able to average 5.5 yards per carry last season on 81 carries, highlighted by a 17 carries, 131 yard and 1 TD performance in week 6 against the Saints. The ceiling is there, it’s just a matter of opportunity, and this makes him worth a dart in large-field GPPs.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
With Greg Olsen out last week, Christian McCaffrey saw 15 targets which accounted for one-third of the entire Panthers’ target share. He also ranks 2nd in the entire NFL in receptions. Yes, with WR included. He looks to remain the centerpiece of this offense, but the fact that he has yet to find the pay dirt is alarming, as we’ve already seen Cam rush in a TD this season. While the Bengals defense has been stout against the run (7th in rush DVOA), the fact that CMC does NOT just rely on the ground game makes him one of the top RB options on PPR sites.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
If you were hesitant to play Odell Beckham Jr. against the Jags secondary in week 1, you should see absolutely no appeal in Blaine Gabbert, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, making the Jags defense one of the top options against the depleted Titans offense. Gabbert and Mariota are still expected to split reps as Mariota nurses a nerve issue and without Delanie Walker, the Titans offense is less than menacing. The Jaguars ranked first in the league in pass DVOA last season (-27.6%)and only allowed 169.9 passing yards per game while recording more interceptions (21) than touchdowns allowed (17). This game could be a mess offensively, but the Jaguars D/ST come in as a top option.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
While Royce Freeman reportedly won the starting gig after a solid preseason, the first two weeks of the season say otherwise. After being outperformed by undrafted rookie Philip Lindsey in week 1 (Lindsey posted 15 carries for 71 yards and 2 catches for 31 yards and a TD), he was outsnapped by Lindsey 28-16 in week 2. If this trend continues, Lindsey should take over the starting role in the coming weeks. While the Ravens have a stout run defense, Lindsey could be an excellent leverage play assuming this trend continues and he sees even more opportunity at such a cheap price.
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
Making his 2018 debut last season, Will Fuller picked up right where he and DeShaun Watson left off last season, corralling 8 of 9 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. In 5 career games with Watson, he’s scored SEVEN times. He’s never a super safe cash play due to his injury history and the fact that he can be big-play dependent, but his $7,200 price tag on FanDuel makes him extremely easy to fit into any lineup.
NFL DFS – Sunday (4 PM EST)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams
The Chargers have allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to RB to start the season (22.4) and Todd Gurley has gone all Todd Gurley in the first two weeks of the season, scoring 4 total touchdowns, but his efficiency on the ground has underwhelmed. After averaging 4.7 yards per carry last season, he’s only been able to manage 3.8 yards per carry through the first two weeks of this season. He has a chance to right the ship this week, as the Chargers allowed 4.9 ypc to RB last season (worst in the league). This game carries a 48-point over/under with the Rams being the 7-point favorite, shaping up to be a smash spot for Gurley. His ownership may be high, but he’s well worth the investment in all formats.
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Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
The Khalil Mack effect is real and Chicago must be licking their chops after two weeks. Their defense has arguably been the best in the league. They’ve forced 5 fumbles, recorded 10 sacks, 2 interceptions and have scored 2 defensive TDs. The scary part? They might have their best game-to-date this week against the Cardinals. As they’ve mis-managed David Johnson, the Cardinals have scored a TOTAL of 6 points through the first two weeks of the season. They rank dead last in the league in yards-per-game (175) and with Larry Fitzgerald hobbled this week, they may be in for a long game. At $4,300 on FanDuel, the Bears D/ST comes in extremely under-priced and are a phenomenal option in all formats.
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Both of these teams used to be ripe with fantasy relevance, but they could not be more opposite so far this season. Coming off of a short week after getting mauled by the Bears (nice pun huh) on MNF, the Seahawks come in to a deceptively difficult matchup against the Cowboys defense. Without Doug Baldwin or a reliable ground game, this offense is a bit one-dimensional, making the Cowboys’ defense a viable punt for $3,400 on FanDuel this week. They rank 4th in the league in fewest yards allowed per game (274), have forced 3 fumbles (extremely nice upside against a QB like Russell Wilson) and have 9 total sacks. LB Sean Lee is questionable this week, which would be a massive blow to the defense, but as long as he’s healthy, they could very well end up as a top-5 defense this week.
Next. NFL DFS Week 3 Lineup Advice. dark
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