College Football picks against the spread September 22, 2018

College Football picks against the spread September 22, 2018

They say that Saturday is the first day of fall, but we know better. Fall begins when college football does!

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Our week began last night with a regularly scheduled Thursday game. We have three games tonight before the big 51 game Saturday slate!

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! A slightly below average week 3 put me right at .500 on the season at 72-72 overall. Despite that, I am still down two betting points on the season. Not to worry, I will have 22 to play with in my all time bank.

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 4!

(2)Georgia(-14.5) at Missouri(4):

Missouri can’t stop anyone. I do have a bit of an issue with that half, but not enough to move the needle much. Georgia’s defense is more than good enough to stop the Missouri offense.

(8)Notre Dame(-7.5) at Wake Forest(2):

I was hoping this would be higher so I could confidently pick the Irish not to cover. That Wake defense is not playing well right now. I have to go Notre Dame. The offense should have their way here.

Nebraska at (19)Michigan(-18.5)(2):

The news came out that Adrian Martinez was going to play for Nebraska, and the line still went up another point. It shouldn’t have. I’ll take Nebraska. The Cornhuskers haven’t exactly played well, but they haven’t given up either. This stays pretty close.

(23)Boston College(-6.5) at Purdue(2):

BC’s offense has been impressive so far. They will look the part again against this defense. Eagles by double digits.

Kent State at Mississippi(-28.5)(2):

I don’t like the half, but Kent got destroyed by a Penn State team last week that has struggled is most of the other games. Ole Miss has struggled as well, but they shouldn’t here. Give me Mississippi.

Buffalo(-5.5) at Rutgers(5):

Yeah, okay. Rutgers got blown off the field by a Kansas team that has been the doormat of the power five for at least five years. Tyree Jackson is a better talent than any one player that Kansas has. Buffalo may not blow them out the way Kansas did, but I still see Buffalo winning by at least two scores. Welcome to the third Bull Run.

Minnesota at Maryland(-2.5)(3):

This is tougher with Rodney Smith out for Minnesota. That said, Maryland got smoked by Temple last week. I still like Minnesota straight up here, so the three points isn’t a deterrent.

Akron at Iowa State(-19.5)(1):

Wow, this is a lot. I know Iowa State has the talent and the defense to cover this, but Akron isn’t exactly a bad team. I think this game stays closer than the spread. I’ll take the Zips.

Ohio at Cincinnati(-9.5)(2):

I don’t know that Cincinnati is that much better than Ohio. We haven’t seen much from either team, but this Ohio offense just put up 34 on a pretty good Virginia defense. Cincy has a tough defense as well, but I still see this as a one score game. I’ll take the Bobcats.

Nevada at Toledo(-10.5)(2):

I don’t like the half, but Nevada struggled against a pretty bad Oregon State team. Give me Toledo.

Navy(-6.5) at SMU(2):

I don’t really know what to do with this one. That SMU offense is similar to the Hawaii one that had few issues moving the ball on the Middies. Still, I don’t think that SMU defense can come up with stops either. I have to go Navy for under a touchdown.

Pittsburgh(-3.5) at North Carolina(3):

Neither team has looked particularly good, but Pitt is finally starting to realize what they have with Qadree Ollison. This UNC defense has been gouged by everyone. I’ll take Pitt.

Louisville at Virginia(-4.5)(3):

This line is down because Virginia allowed a lot of points to Ohio. They still won by double digits. Louisville is mostly terrible. Give me UVA.

Western Michigan(-7.5) at Georgia State(2):

You can’t judge the Broncs for getting pounded by Michigan. They have not had issues scoring in any of the other games. Give me WMU.

Miami(OH)(-6.5) at Bowling Green(1):

Sure, Bowling Green has been blown out, but they have at least been able to score. The Redhawks have three points in the last two games combined. I still like Gus Ragland, but I have zero confidence in this offense. I’m taking Miami because I have to pick, but I wouldn’t touch this one. The under on 54.5 looks like a safer bet.

Western Kentucky at Ball State(-2.5)(1):

This is one of those games that I am going to go out of my way to find on TV. I expect a highly entertaining game. Both teams have good talent at the skill positions. I trust Riley Neal a little more, so I’ll go the Letterman’s at home.

Texas A&M at Alabama(-26.5)(4):

We can thank Ole Miss for lying down and getting destroyed last week because it’s going to win us money here. A&M wont win outright, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if this stays within two scores. A&M hangs around for much of this one. Give me the Aggies.

(3)Clemson(-15.5) at Georgia Tech(3):

This looks like an easy pick. A National title contender against an option offense that has had trouble running the option. Clemson rolls.

Tulane at (4)Ohio State(-36.5)(2):

This line is all over the place. It opened at 34.5, and I would feel a lot better with it there. I did place a small bet at a place that still has it at that line. That said, most of Vegas has this at 37 or 38 now. I feel less confident about it at that level. I’m taking Ohio State, but I do trust it a little less.

Kansas State at (12)West Virginia(-16.5)(2):

Hey, remember when this used to be a game? K-State looked a lot better last week, but it wont be enough better to hang around here. Give me the MountainGriers.

(13)Virginia Tech(-27.5) at Old Dominion(4):

Props to the Hokies for going on the road here, but the Monarchs got trampled at home by Liberty. This line just suggests that Vegas thinks the second string for the Hokies isn’t that good. They are still better than ODU. Tech by close to double this.

Florida International at (21)Miami(FL)(-26.5)(2):

FIU makes the trip down I-95, but they aren’t just another team to beat on. This looks a little high to me. I think FIU keeps it around 17-20. Give me the Panthers.

Charlotte at Massachusetts(-7.5)(1):

Oh, come on! No…..please…..no. Nothing good can come from picking this. These teams are on a level of bad that I can barely fathom. This stays a one score game either way, so I guess that means I’m taking Charlotte.

Northern Illinois at Florida State(-10.5)(2):

Honestly, neither team is very good. On paper, the Seminoles should win going away. The reality is that they can’t get out of their own way. Give me NIU.

Kansas at Baylor(-7.5)(2):

The bottom has fallen out of this line. It’s down a full three points. I can see why. Kansas has become a ball hawking defense, and is among the country’s leaders in takeaways. I still don’t trust this offense though. I think Kansas finally hangs around, but one step at a time. Oh, to hell with it. Baylor hasn’t looked great either. Give me the Jayhawks! They may not win outright, but I say one score game!

Arizona(-6.5) at Oregon State(2):

Any team with a talent like Khalil Tate on is should be able to cover a touchdown line, even on the road. Give me Arizona.

South Carolina(-2.5) at Vanderbilt(2):

This is going to be a tough one for the Gamecocks. Tough enough that I like Vandy straight up at home. The Commodores have looked pretty good against pretty good opponents. South Carolina, I guess all we have on them is seeing them get pummeled by Georgia on National TV. This stays close, but Vandy straight up at home.

Connecticut at Syracuse(-28.5)(2):

UConn is awful. Syracuse is not. Give me the Orange, but I’m lowering the bet because of that half.

(17)TCU(-2.5) at Texas(3):

Texas was made to look good by a putrid USC offense. It was a mirage, people. The kind of thing Vegas was built on. This could get out of hand. TCU has the athletes to turn this into a rout. Give me the Toadies.

North Texas(-12.5) at Liberty(3):

Liberty is a good team, but North Texas just threw the hammer down on Arkansas in Fayetteville. I’ll take the Mean Green here too.

Louisiana Tech at (6)LSU(-20.5)(3):

Call me crazy, but this still looks low for Death Valley at night. I’ll take LSU and that stable of running backs.

(14)Mississippi State(-9.5) at Kentucky(3):

Kentucky is getting a little too much credit for beating Florida. That doesn’t mean what it used to. Give me the Bulldogs.

Texas Tech at (15)Oklahoma State(-13.5)(3):

This looks a touch high. The Red Raiders are content to turn this into a shootout, and I doubt the Cowboys can slow it down. I don’t really see Tech winning outright, but this stays close. Give me TT.

Rice at Southern Mississippi(-14.5)(1):

Can the Eagles beat anyone by more than two touchdowns? I have my doubts. Give me Rice.

Texas State at UTSA(-6.5)(2):

This line has been cut in half. At least Vegas understands that this is a rivalry. If you haven’t been in this area of South Texas, these teams really, really don’t like each other. I like UTSA for a touchdown just because they are at home, but this should be a great game. One I have to hunt down on my TV.

UNLV at Arkansas State(-7.5)(3):

I understand this line. Arkansas State is notorious for starting slow. If they do here, this is in jeopardy. I’ll lower the bet a little, but I still like the Red Wolves at home.

Coastal Carolina at Louisiana(-3.5)(2):

This line is down to -3 everywhere. Really? Is Louisiana that bad? I have my doubts. Give me the Cajuns. They should be good for a touchdown at home.

Troy(-4.5) at Louisiana-Monroe(4):

So, being smoked by A&M earns you as much respect as going to Lincoln and winning a game? Sure. I’ll take the lower line. Give me Troy by double digits.

North Carolina State(-5.5) at Marshall(3):

Both teams lost a game to Florence last week, so they will be well rested. When you have a guy like Ryan Finley going against a smaller school, I like this quite a bit. Give me the Wolfpack.

Florida(-4.5) at Tennessee(2):

It’s been a while since I’ve been less excited about this game. Florida is the better team, and they play like it against inferior competition. Give me the Gators.

Arkansas at (9)Auburn(-29.5)(3):

This is too low. Arkansas is far and away the worst team in the SEC right now. And yes, I realize that Tennessee and Florida didn’t change conferences. Auburn by about 35-40. I doubt they let up.

(24)Michigan State(-5.5) at Indiana(3):

As you know from my Pick Em article, I like the Hoosiers straight up. The spread really doesn’t matter, but I do like that it’s over three.

New Mexico State(-3.5) at UTEP(1):

Oh wow….no way I’m touching this one. Give me UTEP at home with no confidence. This is going to be a really ugly game.

Army at (5)Oklahoma(-31.5)(2):

I like the Oklahoma offense and the way they have looked, but Army managed to slow down a high powered Hawaii attack. Remember the days when basketball players used to literally sit on the ball to run the time out? That’s pretty much what Army does. Sooners win, but not by this much. Give me Army.

(7)Stanford(-2.5) at (20)Oregon(3):

This line opened with Oregon favored, then the bettors made Vegas come to their senses. Stanford has outscored Oregon 101-38 over the last two years. Not a lot has changed. Give me Stanford.

East Carolina at South Florida(-20.5)(2):

Wow, that’s a lot. Is beating Illinois worth that much? Did everyone forget that ECU beat North Carolina by 22 points? I think so. Give me the Pirates. They wont lose by this much.

South Alabama at Memphis(-31.5)(1):

I don’t doubt that the offense can cover this, but I do have doubts that the defense can keep it covered. Give me the Jags, I guess.

(18)Wisconsin(-3.5) at Iowa(3):

BYU is probably better than Iowa, if that’s any consolation to the Wisconsin fans. This is going to be a tough game. Both defenses are nasty. This may stay within a field goal. That’s what every line is at now. It did open a 3.5, so I’ll lower the bet a little. I still like Wisconsin here.

Arizona State at (10)Washington(-17.5)(2):

This looks a little high. However, considering what the San Diego State defense did to Sparky in the second half last week, I could see it turning out like this. Give me the Huskies.

Air Force at Utah State(-10.5)(3):

This looks low. Utah State has looked a lot better than Air Force so far. Give me the Aggies.

Eastern Michigan at San Diego State(-11.5)(4):

Really? This looks low. Give me SDSU.

My lock is actually going to be the USC-Washington State game tonight. I didn’t see anything else that tripped my trigger like that one.

We have a big 55 game slate this week. I ended up with eight one pointers, 23 two pointers, a season high; 16 three pointers, six four pointers, and still only two five pointers. Good luck out there! Only part of this is skill!