DFS CFB FanDuel Week 4 Friday Main
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the weekly DFS CFB FanDuel review. This edition is focused on the Friday Night slate for week 4 of the season. We’ll discuss top DFS CFB options by position for your FanDuel DFS CFB slates.
We made a HUGE mistake last week in our Early Only DFS CFB FanDuel picks review. In the first four weeks of every college and NFL football season, we’ve noticed teams work through issues to land at an optically different spot than where they start each season.
We assumed the Florida State Seminoles were working through new coaching kinks and could find some offensive success last week against Syracuse. Florida State football does have some great recruited talent.
Boy, was I wrong! FSU has, quite possibly, the worst offensive line in college football. Their offense was dreadful. I still think Deandre Francois is a skilled signal caller, but he was making desperate decisions while constantly under pressure. So our FSU QB and WR stack, didn’t work.
This week, while still trying to identify some value picks in the running back and wide receiver positions, we’re also going to land on some known commodities, eating chalk, to build a better lineup for cash games. We should be able to use these lineup ideas for GPP as well.
Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS CFB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @MattyMcMatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.
Here’s a look at the schedule for the Friday Night DFS CFB FanDuel slate:
Florida Atlantic University at University of Central Florida 7pm ET
Penn State at Illinois 9pm ET
Washington State at University of Southern California 10:30pm ET
With only three games on the slate, it almost seems like a boring night. But there are some great match ups on Friday night. FAU is a solid team facing an untested UCF ranked team in the same state. Penn State’s offense is finally firing again, and they’re facing a surprising 2-1 Illinni in Champaign, IL. And likely the closest contest of the night will be the Washington State Cougars traveling to Southern California to face the USC Trojans.
DFS CFB FanDuel Week 4: Friday Quarterbacks
Washington State historically has a great offensive passing game. Someone like Gardner Minshew II ($10,300) should be able to pile up some points, even against a team like USC. Minshew has six touchdowns and over 700 passing yards in just two games this season, including another touchdown on the ground.
But, the Washington State/USC game may be tighter than many believe. The -4.5 spread for USC in most books isn’t too surprising after their struggles against Texas. And as we just mentioned, Washington State’s offense can be dangerous. But the 50.5 over/under makes me nervous. That’s a close, low-scoring game.
The Longhorns threw up over 30 points against the Trojans last week, but that was in Texas. Sam Ehlinger had two touchdown passes, but his yardage was low. So all of this leads me to believe Minshew is a better GPP play than cash game play. Still, he’s a solid, and likely low-owned, consideration at the QB position Friday night.
In that same vein, JT Daniels ($7,900) is a worthy GPP consideration as well. Daniels has only thrown one touchdown this season, but he piled up over 300 yards against the Longhorns. He’ll be low-owned, making Daniels a great sneaky GPP play, but I don’t anticipate a great night from JT.
If you’re playing cash games tonight, and a great Super Flex anchor play for your GPP games, you should strongly consider Trace McSorley ($10,400) at quarterback. McSorley is a Heisman trophy candidate who’s found a way to jump-start the Penn State offense now that Sequon Barkley is in the NFL.
While Trace has only thrown five touchdowns in three games he adds another six touchdowns on the ground. So you’re really getting almost three guaranteed touchdowns a game from McSorley, along with almost 300 yards per game on the ground and in the air.
The Penn State and Illinois game has a juicy 61 over/under and the Nittany Lions are are favored by 27 points. That smells like a lot of offense from Trace and the Penn State offense. I’m plugging McSorley into every lineup I own Friday night.
The highest scoring game tonight should be FAU vising the Knights in Central Florida. The over/under is 76, with UCF only favored by just under two touchdowns. If you do the math, that’s a lot of points for both teams, but another barn-burning offense from UCF. That makes McKenzie Milton ($10,200) a clear Super Flex or quarterback favorite in cash lineups, and a slightly cheaper GPP anchor pivot from McSorely.
McKenzie had an odd rough outing against South Carolina State, throwing three interceptions, before the UCF game was cancelled against NC State. But at UCONN, Milton threw for five touchdowns, piling up nearly 40 DFS CFB FanDuel points in one game. We also know, from last year, it’s rare that Milton throws a lot of touchdowns, and the UCF offense should be OK on Friday night.
DFS CFB FanDuel Week 4: Friday Running Backs
At the running back position, James Williams ($10,100) is the priciest option. But the Cougars lead back is going to have a tougher defense this week. Williams has two of his three touchdowns in the air, so expecting him to maintain his 22.75 DFS CFB FanDuel point-per-game average is unrealistic, especially after tonight. Don’t spend that much money on James in your lineup.
Devin Singletary ($10,000) and Adrian Kllins Jr. ($9,7000) should both be involved in a shoot out, but what worries me about picking either back is the game could be mostly done in the air, with each time fighting to stay in the game. It seems like we’d spend a lot of money on a running back likely getting less than 100 yards, and we’d desperately need a touchdown for almost $10K/person. No, thanks.
So who do I like most at running back on Friday night? I’m going back to Miles Sanders ($9,200). Since Barkley left for the NFL, Sanders is fitting in nicely as the lead back for the Nittany Lions. Miles is getting between 15 and 20 carries per game, averages around 100 rushing yards per game, and has hauled in seven receptions in the first three games, for 56 receiving yards.
The only issue with Sanders is the lack of touchdowns, just two against App State in the first game of the season. But, even without touchdowns, Miles is proving to be a solid ten to 15 point DFS CFB FanDuel play every week. And, I suspect PSU will need Sanders run game in the 3rd quarter to keep the Illini at bay. For $9.2K, we’re getting arguably the best and most consistent running back in the Friday night slate.
What do we do next? Unfortunately, we need some value. I don’t want to get stuck digging for three value picks at wide receiver, and playing two of the top four quarterbacks is part of our strategy on Friday night.
Fortunately, the USC Trojans are deploying their 2nd depth chart running back at the goal line often. The Trojans are switching running backs often, among their top three backs, and red-shirt sophomore Vavae Malepeai ($6,200) has found the end-zone three times in the first three games. He’s not piling up rushing yards and only has about two to eight carries per game, but Malepeai is on the field when the Trojans are thinking about punching in the touchdown in the red zone. That’s a value back we want!
DFS CFB FanDuel Week 4: Friday Wide Receivers
We have PSU’s McSorley and UCF’s Milton at quarterback. So we’re going to do our best to find the top receivers for Trace and McKenzie, while also not spending too much money. That’s a tough task.
Fortunately, we have decent options. I admit I’m partial to picking Brandon Polk ($7,200), having seen him play ball at Briar Woods High School, less than two miles from my house. But there are several additional reasons to like Polk again tonight.
Brandon played high school ball with Trace McSorley. So we know the two are very used to each other. The Senior PSU receiver only has two receptions per game, but he also has over 100 yards on the season, and hauled in a touchdown in each of the last two games. It’s likely McSorely has time to find Polk again tonight, making Brandon a decent 10+ DFS CFB FanDuel point value tonight.
Sticking with the Nittany Lions, are next pick is risky, but the ceiling is awesome. DeAndre Thompkins ($8,200) never hauled in a pass in the first two games for PSU. Yes, he was on the field. But against Kent State last week, Thompkins piled up 101 yards on four receptions, including a touchdown.
So we know McSorely is likely now comfortable looking DeAndre’s way. We’re also expecting a big passing game from Trace in the first half. Polk and Thompkins could put us a a great spot earlier on Friday night.
Finally, we’re grabbing another mid-salary-range receiver, but this time from the Knights of UCF. Dredrick Snelson ($8,400) is less risky than he seems. Likely priced low because of his 9.5 point-per-game average, Dredrick is hauling in over five receptions per game, on more targets. So Milton is looking Snelson’s way often. With a touchdown, this could easily be a 15 to 20 point play.
DFS CFB FanDuel Week 4: Friday Summary
For DFS CFB FanDuel Week 4, Friday night, we’re grabbing two talented quarterbacks with less risk than we did last week. In fact, McSorley and Milton give us a solid base to build our team on for Friday.
The challenge is going to be finding the risk pieces to build around our biggest point-getters. We’re sticking with Sanders again at running back this week, his consistency is worth the salary. And expecting a few rushing touchdowns from the Trojans tonight, Malepeai should be able to punch one or two in for us, greating a great value pick.
Finally, at the receiver position, we’re trying to capitalize on three targets for our two confident quarterback picks, although with some risk in picks like Thompkins. Still, receivers like Polk and Snelson have proven to be reliable, and we can probably take a hit with one value pick for the rest of the lineup.
With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the Week 4 DFS CFB FanDuel Friday slate:
QB Trace McSorley ($10,400)
RB Miles Sanders ($9,200)
RB Vavae Malepeai ($6,200)
WR Dredrick Snelson ($8,400)
WR DeAndre Thompkins ($8,200)
WR Brandon Polk ($7,200)
Flex McKenzie Milton ($10,200)
Remaining Salary: $0
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for the slate. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building DFS CFB FanDuel lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
Best of luck in your DFS CFB FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across College Football, NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, and NASCAR this fall!