FanDuel EPL DFS Soccer Analysis – September 22 2018
By David Gate
Hello and welcome to FanDuel EPL DFS column on FantasyCPR! We have all the best analysis for you to cash on this seven game soccer slate!
This is the best slate of the Premier League season so far. For a start it is the biggest. We have seven games and 14 of the 20 EPL teams to choose from. We also have four of the ‘big six’ sides meaning the top players won’t be as chalk as they are on normal Saturdays.
The two Manchester sides are facing newly promoted teams. Man City travel to Cardiff in the biggest mis-match of the day. Their rivals Man Utd are hosting Wolves which could be a tricky game for the Red Devils at Old Trafford.
Tottenham Hotspur are hoping to stop their three game losing streak away at Brighton & Hove Albion. Meanwhile Liverpool are aiming to keep up their perfect start to the season at home to Southampton.
Almost all of the top plays on this slate have some question marks over them regarding form or injuries it will be crucial to pick the right attackers this week.
A lot of these teams are coming off midweek games in Europe so there will likely be some rotations and surprise inclusions. I’ll be on Twitter @davidgatesports to chat through lineups changes and team sheet surprises from 9:00am ET.
Let’s look at who to target this week in FanDuel EPL action!
FanDuel EPL Goalkeepers
There are two clear standouts on this slate. Alisson Becker (6000) is at home to struggling Southampton. The Saints only have six goals in their opening five games but three of those have come from Danny Ings who will miss this game against his parent club. Liverpool have conceded only two goals in their opening five fixtures; a late consolation to Spurs and a goalkeeping error against Leicester.
Ederson (6000) is almost an equally good play against Cardiff who have failed to score in three of their opening fixtures. However the Bluebirds have scored in their last two games – against Arsenal and Chelsea, no less. Regardless you can feel safe about either Brazilian keeper this weekend.
If you are looking for a value pick the I would plump for Asmir Begovic (4500) who is facing a Burnley side with only three goals. The Clarets have been surprising strugglers this year and sit rock bottom of the Premier League.
Kasper Schmeichel (5000) is a very solid pick if you want a goalie at home against weak opposition.
FanDuel EPL Defenders
One of my favorite tactics in FanDuel EPL action is to stack defenders against Burnley. They are a one-dimensional team who can only hit the ball long to their bulky strikers. That creates a ton of opportunity for opposing center backs to rack up stats. That gives you a very safe floor to build the rest of your team. This year we have the added plus of the clean sheet bonus and Burnley are struggling to score.
That makes Steve Cook (6500) and Nathan Ake (5500) elite plays this week. Cook has the price bump because he bagged a goal and an assist in one game this year inflating his game logs. Ake is a steal at under $6k this week.
Sol Bamba (5500) is another player who is a solid $1k under value on this slate. He has been gaining 4x his value and has three out of five games with 30 FanDuel points. Man City can make me nervous as a matchup for defenders as they keep so much of the ball. However, one of the consequences of Kevin de Bruyne’s injury at Man CIty is that they have been a little more direct with their attack. I feel great about this pick.
If you are looking for goal/assist threat this weekend from the position then I would look at Andrew Robertson (7000) against Southampton; Kyle Walker (5500) against Cardiff and Aaron Wan-Bissaka (6000) against Newcastle.
FanDuel EPL Midfielders
If you read my column regularly you will know that my current tactic for my lineups is to prioritize forwards, defenders and goalkeepers. The scoring system FanDuel are persisting with has lessened the impact of the position. Ironically it is the most important position in the actual game!
To create an element of safety in the position it is worth stacking two or three midfielders from a team you think are going to do well this weekend. I am happy to take more risks in GPP but I like the safety of stacks in cash games.
As I’ve already said the best two stacks on the slate are Liverpool and Man City. You can get either Mohamed Salah (11000) or Sadio Mane (10500) with James Milner (7500) and Gini Wijnaldum (6000) and still have room for a top forward.
Mane has been the better play of the two African wingers this season and there is a chance Salah could be rested for Xherdan Shaqiri (7500). But if the Egyptian plays I want him – he had three goals in two games against Southampton last season and scored against Mark Hughes’ Stoke side when he was still manager there.
A Man City stack has to start with David Silva (10500) with de Bruyne out. Fabian Delph (6000) should start at left back with Benjamin Mendy ruled out for a few weeks. Leroy Sane (8000) is a bargain at that price in a prime matchup.
I love Ryan Fraser (8000) against Burnley. He is becoming the key player for the Cherries and seeing more minutes and more of the ball week after week.
FanDuel EPL Forwards
Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino (11000) has scored the game winner in three straight games for the Reds. He came of the bench on Tuesday to grab the key goal against PSG after missing the start with the eye injury he picked up against Spurs. He should start this week and be the top forward play on the slate.
Sergio Aguero (12500) is hard to fade this week. Pep Guardiola is regularly rotating his forwards and subbing them around the hour mark which is hugely frustrating for DFS. However this matchup is too good to fade him entirely.
Romelu Lukaku (11500) has a reputation for being a flat-track bully, scoring most of his goals against the lower ranked sides. There is a note of caution in this matchup as Wolves have been a decent side so far but I like the Belgian this week.
My favorite value pick of the day at the position is Jordan Ayew (7000). He has established himself as Wifried Zaha’s partner in attack and has a great home matchup against Newcastle. His inclusion helps make all my stacks viable.
FanDuel EPL Lineups
Once again: these are sample lineups and are not optimized. The only guarantee I can give you is that I will playing them too. I will also have some lines that are not here. Best thing is to take some of these picks and build your own lineup – especially in GPP – as lineup sharing only reduces the amount you can win.
Sample Lineup – Man City stack
FWD: Firmino –Liverpool
FWD: Ayew – Crystal Palace
MID: Silva – Man City
MlD: Sane – Man City
MID: Delph – Man City
DEF: Bamba – Cardiff
DEF: Ake – Bournemouth
GK: Alisson – Liverpool
Sample Lineup – Liverpool stack
FWD: Firmino –Liverpool
FWD: Ayew – Crystal Palace
MID: Salah – Liverpool
MlD: Milner – Liverpool
MID: Wijanldum – Liverpool
DEF: Bamba – Cardiff
DEF: Ake – Bournemouth
GK: Ederson – Man City
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