DraftKings NFL Week 3 Ownership Projections
Every week of the NFL season, I will provide you with my projected ownership of each position for the DraftKings NFL main slate. These DraftKings Week 3 Ownership projections are based on social trends, pricing, injury reports, match-ups and so on. Sources include beat reporters, weather reports, individual team injury reports, Pro Football Reference and FanShare Sports.
For clarity, we will only be analyzing the main slate of the week (1PM and 4PM EST games) on DraftKings which includes the new version of the Millionaire Maker, Roman’s Fantasy Football Millionaire.
The best thing that can happen to your DraftKings NFL lineup is finding a low owned, high reward player who can separate you from the competition. There is no better feeling than seeing your top WR score two touchdowns and noticing he is only owned by 2% of the field.
This season, I will provide you with who I expect to be the highest owned players at each position along with some of the top expected performers with low ownership expectations. I will also provide my picks per position based on the ownership and pricing relationship and isolate a few hidden gems.
"A contrarian is a person that takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority."
One thing I will mention regularly is value or ‘hitting value’. What that means is a player scored enough fantasy points to be worth his price tag. What I consider to be value is landing in the ‘cash’ of a particular contest or tournament and making a profit off of your initial entry. The metric we use to discern the value is your players multiplier or Points/Price equation. For example, Player X costs $6700 and this week on DraftKings he managed to score 20.7 DK points. You would then take the point (20.7) and divide it by the players cost by moving a decimal over three spots from the right (stay with me). In this case, $6700 would turn into 6.7 or 6.7K. 20.7 DK Points divided by 6.7 would be 3.09, and that number signifies the ‘value’ of a player. Player X scored 3.09 times his cost.
In most major GPP contests on DraftKings, anywhere from 3 to 3.5x would generally be in the cash. For the most part, 4 to 5x would help you flirt with a victory in a major tournament. In Week 1 this season, 3.62 was the cash mark and in Week 2 it was 3.08. Here is a recap of the performances from Week 2…
On to Week 3 where a number of injuries have created some clear chalk on the slate as we analyze some value pivots and which chalk you can’t avoid in our position by position breakdown.
CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR QUARTERBACKS IN WEEK 3
Week 3 QBs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
We’re back to a relatively level playing field after Week 2 when it comes to QB ownership. There is no clear-cut top target for this week and ownership will be incredibly spread out. As we crawl towards Sunday, the person on the biggest climb right now is Carson Wentz. His price is modest at $6200 and his ownership will skyrocket as long as nothing changes in his injury status. Also, here is a look at how defenses are shaping up against the QB two weeks into the 2018 season in DK Points allowed…
Top Tier (10% owned or higher)
Patrick Mahomes
Carson Wentz
Patrick Mahomes ($7000) will head to Arrowhead for his first career home game after playing Week 17 in Denver last year and starting the 2018 season with back to back road games. The two-time defending 2018 AFC Offensive Player of the Week will arrive with lofty expectations after starting the season with TEN touchdown through two games. TEN. What may be more impressive is that he has those touchdowns on only 55 pass attempts and 38 completions. He hasn’t thrown for more than 326 yards in a game yet. He also has surprising only ran for 39 total yards thus far. The guy just has a heat seeking missile attached to his arm with its target being the end zone.
If you have plans of fading the 23-year-old, good luck. His opponent this weekend is the San Francisco 49ers. The game total has surpassed 55 points! As you can tell from the chart above, they are one of the worst defenses against the opposing quarterback and were even worst the season before meaning things are not looking upwards. For those worried about game flow, the Chiefs are even WORSE against opposing QBs so this game has the makings of another shootout involving the Chiefs.
The wait for Carson Wentz’s return is over. The Super Bowl champion(?) Wentz ($6200) is back at the helm after leading the Eagles to an 11-2 start in 2017 before he went down with an ACL injury. Prior to the injury, Wentz was phenomenal. In 13 games, he accrued 3296 yards with 33 TDs and only 7 INTs and also added 299 rushing yards. He was as solid of a DFS play as anyone during that period. The Eagles take on the Colts this week in a battle between Wentz and Luck, two of the games best young QBs. It is at home which is to Wentz’s advantage and the Colts are a soft defense, despite improving from last season.
Unfortunately for both sides, a few top weapons are out of play. Alshon Jeffrey, Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles will be inactive for the Eagles and Jack Doyle for the Colts. Any chance of a shootout diminishes with those players missing.
Middle Tier (7-10% owned)
On the other side of the Mahomes homecoming is Jimmy Garoppolo ($6500) and the 49ers. After a putrid start of the season against the Vikings, Jimmy G and San Francisco narrowly escaped with a victory against the Detroit Lions. He threw no interceptions (3 in Week 1) but only put together 206 yards for 2 TDs 26 attempts. That is a very solid performance but it’s not necessarily a DFS superstar performance. Kansas City has the worst defense against the QB in the league and Eric Berry is expected to miss another week. This is the game DFS players have circled with a thick, red marker as the one to target.
Blake Bortles ($5600) is coming off of one of the best games of his career, defeating the New England Patriots in an AFC Championship rematch, but still remains one of the lower priced starters in the league. Throwing for 376 yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT and adding 35 rushing yards against an admittedly poor Patriots secondary was still impressive and he faces the Titans this week with an equally average defense.
Deshaun Watson ($6100) is clearly a better player with Will Fuller on the field and it showed in Week 2 despite losing to the Titans 20-17. Watson finished with a QB rating of 107.6 and had 310 yards passing. He also posted his second straight 40+ yard rushing performance. More importantly, he is facing a struggling Giants team at home in a must-win game for both teams. I expect the best performance of the year for Watson in Week 3.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk
Pretty straight forward this week. Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo are the best plays out of the chalk. I don’t see either going past 12-15% owned this week and this game will have some fireworks. With the $500 price difference, I think it’s a fair argument to go with either guy and still have the same amount of success this week.
Week 3 QBs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
Targets (5% ownership or less)
Drew Brees ($6400) has an 81.25% completion percentage in two games with 80 pass attempts! That’s an outrageous statistic for a soon-to-be 40-year-old quarterback. With that, he has yet to throw an INT and has 5 TD on the season with a 123.0 QB rating. The Saints are facing a division rival this week in Atlanta where every game is important if you have hopes of winning the NFC South crown. With Atlanta likely to pack its own punch, Brees should have plenty of opportunities to air it out on Sunday. This is my favorite play on the slate, for around 5% ownership.
Andrew Luck ($5600) has had two decent games thus far against a pair of respectable teams (Washington and Cincinnati) including a convincing win against the Redskins. When healthy, Luck was a truly elite QB in this league and I think he’s slowly on his way back. He does have a tough matchup this weekend against the defending super bowl champion Eagles, but he should be able to compete against another guy who is returning from injury. Thus far, he has 84 pass attempts which is good for DFS players, the more opportunities equals more yards and touchdowns.
Despite tying with the Packers, Kirk Cousins ($6800) exploded last week for 429 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT with 35 completions on 48 pass attempts. Thats 669 yards with 6 TDs and only 1 INT through two games. The most enticing thing about Kirk Cousins this week is his opponent. The Buffalo Bills have been a punching bag this year as they allow for their young QB, Josh Allen, to develop. To boot, Dalvin Cook will miss Sunday adding more pressure to Cousins, Diggs, Thielen and Rudolph.
Jared Goff ($5900) is clearly reliant on game script in most match ups. If there is any sort of lead or plan on controlling the ball, this offense runs solely through Todd Gurley. If it becomes a shootout or the Rams are trailing, it’s Goff’s turn. I’m not completely expecting the Chargers to keep up with the Rams but it certainly is an opponent who can get Goff involved in a hurry. He did have 354 yards last week in a game that they won 34-0 and was deadly accurate. Philip Rivers and the Chargers can score in bunches but their defense has been exposed all season. With his new-found favorite target, Brandin Cooks, and reliable options such as Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, Goff has the tools to run a fast paced, high power offense.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
Summer BREES, makes me feel fine, blowing through the jasmine in my mind.
I am all over Drew Brees this week at this unexpected low ownership and will pair him with Michael Thomas to create a contrarian super team this weekend.
CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR RUNNING BACKS IN WEEK 3
Week 3 RBs -DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
This is brewing into one of those weeks where there are some MEGA chalk options due to injuries and opportunities and you will have a lot of trouble deciding who to play and who to fade. 3 of the 4 highest owned RBs this week will all be backups in premiere back roles on high-powered teams.
Top Tier (20% owned or higher)
There seems to be a situation like this every weekend in the NFL. A star player goes down, the team announces their replacement, DFS players automatically start the replacement. Did anyone ever think that there is a reason that these guys are backups? I do agree with the method…You get first team snaps for a second team price but I’m always very cautious when following the chalk with a replacement.
That being said, I am in agreement of at least one of these two. Corey Clement ($4300) has shown signs of brilliance the last few years and I honestly believe there is an argument to be made for him to be the starter in that crowded backfield. With both Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles leaving his only competition to be Wendell Smallwood and Josh Adams. Smallwood will get some reps but this will be the Corey Clement show on Sunday. This is also Carson Wentz’s first game back, I have to imagine that the Eagles will rely on Clement to carry the load as Wentz finds his groove. He is also only $4300, pretty clear he will be close to 30% owned this week.
I completely disagree with Gio Bernard ($5900) becoming super chalk this week. He clearly will be the workhorse on Sunday with Joe Mixon missing the next few weeks but did you see the chemistry between Dalton and his receivers last week? The Bengals take on the Panthers in Carolina this weekend and the Panthers have looked pretty good so far. I understand Bernard is a part of the passing game as well but Dalton has really found some rhythm with Green and Boyd. Bernard hasn’t done much with his 8 targets in the first two weeks only collecting 26 yards on 5 catches. He clearly will get enough touches this week to put together a nice score but I have two concerns. He was limited in practice all week with a knee injury and he is $5900. That’s not much of a discount for a career 3rd down back. I also don’t want to put my chips in on Bernard and then see him knocked out of the game in the 1st. He will need 19-20 DK points minimum to even hit value with that price tag. He’ll end up somewhere between 22-25% owned, I’d rather go with Clement in this spot.
Middle Tier (15-20% owned)
Similar to Bernard, Latavius Murray ($5800) is filling in for the premiere back (Dalvin Cook) but is still relatively high in cost at $5800. Unlike Bernard, Murray has been a #1 back in the past and has a little bit better of a track record. He has seen 15 rushes through two weeks but only has 61 yards and has zero targets in the pass game. The one selling point is that the Vikings are playing the Bills. It is conceivable that the Vikings will go up early and just run Murray into the ground to run out the clock. I still think it is a risk at his price tag.
Alvin Kamara is once again the highest priced RB at $9500. He will sit between 15-18% owned this week purely because of his insane upside. He had a really lethargic game in Week 2 against the Browns only putting together 46 rushing yards and 53 receiving yards with zero scores. I can’t argue against anyone wanting to play Kamara but that cost is very intimidating. It is a fair assumption that he will likely be paired with Clement in a lot of lineups due to the cap relief from Clement’s pricing.
Lower Tier (10-15% owned)
Jordan Howard ($6500) has been serviceable in DFS this year but has yet to go off. Lucky for him, the Cardinals have been absolutely gashed by opposing running backs this season giving up 44 DK points per game to the position. This is a dream matchup for Howard who is at a modest $6500.
Todd Gurley ($9200) is ….well, Todd Gurley. The #1 or #2 running back in the league is coming off a 3 TD game despite only rushing for 42 yards. This guy just finds a way to the end zone game in and game out. He faces a Chargers team that is still missing Joey Bosa up the middle and has been only okay against the run so far. I honestly think the $300 discount he gives you from Alvin Kamara makes him a nice pivot play this week.
Christian McCaffrey ($7800) is an ELITE receiver. This guy saw 15 targets in Week two. FIFTEEN. That’s Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, AJ Green type numbers. He caught 14 of them for 102 yards after catching 6 of 9 in Week 1. He only has seen 18 carries out of the backfield which is concerning but if you look at him as a receiver that’s sees 15 balls a game at $7800, it sounds a little more reasonable. The Bengals won’t be a pushover so McCaffrey will see plenty of action and will be just a tick above 10% owned.
Saquon Barkley ($7600) saw even more targets than McCaffrey! For an elite runner, I was surprised to see him targeted 16 times in Week 2 where he grabbed 14 for 80 yards. Unfortunately for the Giants, Eli Manning and the offensive playbook clearly are avoiding chunk plays and often just seem to be checking down, but that is goof for Barkley supporters. Bad news for Barkley would be the return of Clowney this week for the Texans who I think could be an elite DEF play this week.
Guess what? Another running back saw 14+ targets in Week 2. Chris Thompson ($6300) grabbed 13 of 14 passes from Alex Smith in Week 2 for 92 yards after grabbing 6 of 7 in week 1. For $6300, he just sees too many targets not to consider as an elite WR play.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk
There are a lot of solid options this week within the ‘chalk’ catalog. I will be targeting Corey Clement, Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey. Corey Clement is in a perfect situation and is ridiculously cheap. Don’t overthink it, just plug him in and find contrarian options else where. I love Todd Gurley as a pivot play off of Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey is just too cheap.
Week 3 RBs -DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
Targets (10% ownership or less)
Kenyan Drake ($5600) was an animal after the Jay Ajayi trade last season. He averaged 4.8 yards per attempt and saw 48 targets. He has certainly started off slowly this season but still has 101 yards, 1 TD and 7 catches despite being rather disappointing. More importantly, he’s down to $5600 and will be well under 10% owned against a Raiders defense that has allowed 29.4 DK points per game to the RB position. The Dolphins are 2-0 and will be home in Week 3 looking for one of their best starts to a season in a long time.
Look, if you want to ignore David Johnson ($7200) until you see him explode, be my guest. I will continue to give this guy some ownership shares week in and week out as we await for his coming out party. The biggest concern this weekend is their opponent. The Bears are the best defense in the league against the RB position, only allowing 10.7 DK points per game to opposing backs. The Cardinals are at home and David Johnson is down to $7200. I’ll take my chances of DJ hitting 25-ish DK points and creating some alternate lineups while I play Corey Clement.
Devonta Freeman will be out for a second straight week and Tevin Coleman will see the bulk of the carries in Week 3 against the Saints. Behind Coleman is Ito Smith at only $3000. Smith saw 10 touches in week 3 and had 54 yards on those 10 touches. Coleman has yet to hold a vice grip on the shares in his few games with him as the #1
Tevin Coleman has played 4 games w/o Devonta Freeman
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 21, 2018
2015 Week 12:
Coleman: 18 touches + 67% snaps
Terron Ward: 6 touches + 23% snaps
2017 Week 11:
Coleman: 21 + 68%
Ward: 7 + 29%
2017 Week 12:
Coleman: 19 + 69%
Ward: 8 + 31%
2018 Week 2:
Coleman: 20 + 63%
Ito Smith: 10 + 30%
30% of the touches is no joke. At that price tag, Smith only needs about 10 DK Points to hit value. That’s a pretty decent punt play if you need some cap relief. He will be less than 1% owned.
With Marlon Mack missing another game, Jordan Wilkins ($3700) will be the #1 for the Colts this week. The rookie has been pretty impressive in limited action so far with 101 rushing yards on 24 carries and 5 catches on 5 targets. The problem with Andrew Luck is his affinity to spread the ball evenly across the offense. With Mack and Jack Doyle out of the picture in Week 3, I like Wilkins and his upside at only $3700 and about 1-2% ownership. He has also been pretty impressive in finding the gap and hitting the holes
Jordan Wilkins patience on gap run pic.twitter.com/cpZ693NP4e
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 17, 2018
Melvin Gordon ($7400) continues to be a slightly poor-man’s Todd Gurley. The guy just finds the end-zone. He only has 92 rushing yards so far but he has 15 receptions for 140 yards and 3 total touchdowns. Despite Austin Ekeler‘s emergence, Melvin Gordon finds his way into any game script. At $7400 and under 10% ownership, he’s worth a look this week.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
I will be giving David Johnson another look despite his tough match up. The guy is just too good and too cheap to not take a leap of faith. I also love Ito Smith and Jordan Wilkins as punt plays which will allow me to pay up on receivers, QBs and a guy like DJ or Gurley.
CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR WIDE RECEIVERS IN WEEK 3
Week 3 WRs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
Week 3 will be very tough to discern the correct plays and match ups at the WR position. Ownership will be incredibly spread out with my projections only showing 7 WRs over 10% and I don’t expect anyone to exceed 20%. There are a few match ups with huge upside due to expected game flow (shootouts or high snap counts) and a few defenses with some glaring concerns in the secondary.
Top Tier (15-20% owned or higher)
Michael Thomas
Nelson Agholor
Julio Jones
Tyreek Hill
Michael Thomas ($8900) has 30 targets so far this season. He has only missed on two, catching 28 for 269 yards and 3 TDs. That’s as efficient as it gets. The Saints offense is pretty two-dimensional, Thomas and Alvin Kamara control a HUGE share of the touches. Thomas and Kamara account for 48 out the teams 76 targets and Kamara controls 36 of the 50 rush attempts. The only downside to Thomas is his price this week as the highest among the receivers. However, the Falcons have allowed 36.3 DK points per game to WRs and this game should have plenty of points.
Carson Wentz returns which means a pretty big bump for guys like Agholor and Ertz as well as Jeffrey when he returns from injury. Without Wentz, Agholor ($6100) still saw 22 targets and caught 16 with Nick Foles at the helm. Agholor was just starting to blossom towards the end of Wentz’s 13 games in the 2017 season where he saw 23 targets in his final 2 games with Wentz. The Colts have been surprisingly decent against the pass in the first two weeks but at $6100, it makes sense that Agholor will be the 2nd highest owned receiver.
Julio Jones ($7900) has seen 28 targets through two weeks and has put together 15 catches for 233 yards. Imagine he caught the ball at the same rate as Michael Thomas (93% catch rate)?. Thankfully for Jones, the Saints are the worst defense against the WR when it comes to DK Points allowing 61.8 DK points per game through two weeks. That’s astronomically high. At $7900, he only needs roughly 25 points to hit value. Seems pretty attainable for the amount of action he sees. I think it’s plausible to play both Thomas and Jones in this game.
In the presumed highest scoring affair of the week, Tyreek Hill ($8500) will face a 49ers defense that has been gashed by the Vikings and Lions. Hill saw a drop off from Week 1 to 2 but still managed to bring home over 20 DK points on only 6 targets. Hill has an outrageous 21.6 yards per reception. His only downside is his price but the upside is too massive.
Middle Tier (10-15% owned)
Will Fuller
Tyler Boyd
T.Y. Hilton
Will Fuller ($5900) just has a knack for the end-zone. That is magnified when he is paired with Deshaun Watson. The two have only 5 career starts with each other but have connected on 21 balls for 8 touchdowns. What?! I’m no mathematician but that means for every 2.62 receptions (from Deshaun Watson to Will Fuller), he’s in the end zone. The Texans take on the reeling Giants this week and Fuller has a full week under his belt after returning from injury. Good luck fading this connection.
Tyler Boyd ($3700) had a great performance on Thursday Night against the Ravens catching 6 out of 9 balls for 91 yards and a TD. The Ravens-killer also saw 5 targets in Week 1 and is clearly becoming a solid alternative for Andy Dalton. At $3700, DFS players are jumping all over him with an expected ownership up near the 15% range.
T.Y. Hilton’s stock goes up purely because of the absence of Jack Doyle and Marlon Mack this week. Andrew Luck loves to spread the ball but with limited options, he has no choice but to target T.Y. Hilton ($6700) a little bit more this week. Despite the spread, Hilton has still seen 22 balls come his way this season catching 12 for 129 yards and 2 TDs.
‘Fringe’ Tier (Near 10% owned)
All six of these guys should be right around the same ownership on the fringe of 10%. Out of the six, Hopkins and Beckham are in good match ups but suffer due to their price. I am hesitant on Allen Robinson who will likely be facing Patrick Peterson all day in Arizona and I fear Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins will be drowned out by their fellow offensive weapons. Marquise Goodwin is an interesting option in the shootout of the week as long as he remains healthy.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk
There is an argument to be made for the top-4 chalk plays but I will be leaning on Michael Thomas and Julio Jones. The cap relief received by the various options at RB will allow for both weapons to be slotted into a roster. I also love Will Fuller at $5900 continuing his dominance with Watson.
Week 3 WRs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
Targets (8% ownership or less)
Brandin Cooks
Stefon Diggs
AJ Green
Calvin Ridley
Randall Cobb
Brandin Cooks ($7000) has quickly become a favorite target for Jared Goff as he’s totaled 246 yards on 12 target but has yet to finish in the end zone. He is reliant on his chunk plays averaging 20.6 yards per reception and is definitely high-risk. If he finds his way to a touchdown, Cooks will be an awesome play this week.
Kirk Cousins has picked up the Vikings offense where Case Keenum left it. Stefon Diggs ($7700) and Adam Theilen have been phenomenal in two high scoring affairs through two weeks. Diggs has found his way to 3 TDs on 12 receptions with 171 yards. I think his price, $7700, is keeping his ownership down this week but they certainly have a juicy match up this week against a Bills team that had a member of their secondary retire mid-game last weekend.
AJ Green ($7500) exploded on Thursday Night with 3 TD despite only catching 5 balls for 69 yards. He has yet to see 10 targets in a game this year after a 2017 campaign with 143 targets and the Bengals face the Panthers this week where the pass attempts should be plentiful. Green is also a reasonable $7500 this weekend.
Calvin Ridley ($3700), the first round pick for the Atlanta Falcons, should get going eventually, right? He did show up last weekend grabbing 4 of 6 targets for 64 yards and more importantly, a TD. If he can solidify himself as Matt Ryan‘s #2 option, that role has paid dividends in the past (See: Mohamed Sanu). At $3700, he is definitely one of the best values in Week 3.
Randall Cobb ($5200) was great in Week 1, catching 9 of 10 targets for 142 yards and a score. His production was dampened last weekend, only seeing 6 targets for a mere 30 yards on 4 catches. As one of Aaron Rodgers lone reliable options, he could provide a nice pivot play at $5200 with limited options in that price range.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
Take your pick out of the first three. I think purely based on predicted game flow, Brandin Cooks would be the best play but is also the highest risk. If you are looking to stack the Falcons offense or look for an alternative off of Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley’s price is very intriguing.
CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR TIGHT ENDS IN WEEK 3
Week 3 TEs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
The DFS community has a problem. The tight end position has been an absolute mine field through two weeks with almost zero consistency. Here is a breakdown of Week 1 vs. Week 2 and the performances/ownership for each week
Top Tier (15% owned or higher)
George Kittle ($4500) will be the highest owned TE this week purely due to the match up. Despite looking like an elite level tight end in week 1, he was pretty awful come week 2 with only 22 yards on 2 catches. The potential is there, however, and this is a dream match up against the Chiefs who have given up the second most DK points to TE’s this season. This game also has a 55+ point over/under and Jimmy Garoppolo will be active trying to keep up with the Chiefs high-powered machine that is the Mahomes-Hunt-Hill-Kelce-Watkins combo. Kittle is also still $4500 due to his poor performance in week 2.
Middle Tier (10-15% owned)
Eric Ebron ($3400) was rather impressive in the first two weeks despite sharing the TE looks with Jack Doyle. On 9 targets, Ebron brought in 7 balls for 77 yards and 2 TDs. Now that he is alone with Doyle sitting out this week, Ebron is a clear target for top ownership among the TEs. His price is super friendly at $3400 and his only downside is the opponent, the defending super bowl champion Eagles and their stout defense.
On the other side of that match up, Zach Ertz ($6800) gets his #1 QB back in the mix. He has seen 23 targets for 16 catches and 142 yards through two weeks, but has yet to score. Thru 13 games with Carson Wentz in 2017, he saw 108 targets and caught 74 balls for 824 yards and 8 TDs. With Alshon Jeffrey and Darren Sproles missing the game this week, Ertz and Agholor will be likely only be challenged by returning WR Jordan Matthews for targets.
I have to admit, I was worried about Travis Kelce’s role in this high-speed attack built by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Those questions were hushed a bit after Kelce ($6700) caught 7 balls for 109 yards and 2 TDs in Week 2. In the high scoring affair upcoming between the Chiefs and 49ers, Kelce’s only downside is being the second highest priced TE at $6700, just $100 less than Ertz.
Lower Tier (8-10% owned)
Austin Hooper ($2900) scored his first TD of the season last week to pair with 5 catches (on 5 targets) and 59 yards. He’s not a flashy option at tight end, but he should get the job done against a Saints defense that has struggled through two games. He is also an incredible value at only $2900 in a season where some of the top performances have come from below the $3000 mark.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk
Although I’m still wary of George Kittle’s role, especially with the return of Marquise Goodwin, the situation is just too juicy in Week 3. I’ll likely dig into the value options in Week 3 but will definitely also have some exposure to Eric Ebron.
Week 3 TEs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
Targets (8% ownership or less)
Jordan Reed ($5400) did not score in Week 2 but he still managed to grab 6 balls for 55 yards and saw three more targets than he did in Week 1. Reed is clearly very TD reliant with guys like Chris Thompson stealing a lot of his targets but he is still a deadly weapon and is getting healthier by the week. At $5400, he is a nice pivot off of guys like Kelce and Ertz and is facing an aging defense in the Green Bay Packers.
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Jared Cook ($4000) went pretty cold after his week 1 explosion but still grabbed 4 balls for 49 yards in the Raiders week 2 loss to Denver. He has been very efficient on his targets, catching all 4 this past week and 9 of 12 in week 1. At $4000, I think he is still a huge value despite a clear unsteady flow of targets week in and week out. The Dolphins have been pretty impressive on defense through two weeks but are very average against the TE, allowing 12.8 DK points per game.
Will Dissly ($3300) has made the most of his limited looks, scoring 2 TD’s on 6 receptions and 10 targets. Granted, his TD in week 2 came in garbage time against the Bears on Monday night, but a TD is a TD. His target share is the biggest concern, but this guy can ball. At $3300, I think DraftKings is still adjusting to his significance in the Seahawks lineup with the absence of Doug Baldwin.
Tight ends on the Broncos are seeing limited opportunity thus far due to the variety of options at wide receiver and running back through two weeks, but Jake Butt ($2700) is seeing the majority of those opportunities. His 10 targets trump Jeff Heuerman‘s 4 and he has snagged 6 of those for 77 yards. It’s very insignificant, but I think he is an excellent punt play at $2700 and bottom of the barrel ownership.
After an awful showing in week 1 (2 catches, 18 yards), Evan Engram ($4300) returned to form in week 2 on Sunday Night vs. the Cowboys grabbing 7 balls for 67 yards and 1 TD. If you remember, Engram was one of the few elite TEs in 2017 and is only in his second year. At $4300, the ownership is depleted a little bit due to guys like George Kittle ($4500) and Jared Cook ($4000) in the same price range but the Texans have struggled against the TE position so far (See: Rob Gronkowski week 1).
Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?
I’m leaning towards giving Jared Cook another run this week with his very affordable price tag and high-efficiency. I also love Evan Engram as Eli Manning continues to look for short yardage opportunities.
CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR DEFENSES IN WEEK 3
Week 3 DEFs -DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership
Top Tier (10-15% owned or higher)
Dallas Cowboys
Minnesota Vikings
After clamping the Panthers to 8 points in week 1, the Cowboys ($2200) followed up by keeping the New York Giants to 13 points including a zero point performance in the first half and most of the points (10) coming in the fourth quarter during garbage time. They face the depleted Seahawks offense and only cost $2200 this week creating one of the most attractive options on the slate.
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To be frank, the Bills stink. On the contrary, the Vikings ($4300) defense is incredible. Combine these two variables for a week 3 match up and it is not surprising that the Vikings will be one of the top 2 owned defenses this weekend. They are incredibly costly at $4300 which is unheard of for a defense but they should be viewed as high upside opportunity with defensive TDs, sacks, fumbles and interceptions well within reach.
Middle Tier (8-10% owned)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears
The Jaguars ($4000) were very impressive against the New England Patriots, scoring 13 DK points against one of the most prolific offenses in football. Although they are also incredibly high priced, they face a Titans offense who continues to get bit by the injury bug. The only concern would be the lack of motivation after defeating an AFC rival and giving up a few scores to a Titans offense with a few decent targets but I think it’s a pretty safe bet to use the Jaguars in week 3.
The Bears ($3500) have clearly made their presence known as a defensive powerhouse for the 2018 season. After a 17 DK Point performance in week 1 in the loss to the Packers, they grabbed another 14 DK points against the Seahawks on Monday Night and face a Cardinals offense who is still looking for an identity. At $3500, they are in a nice price range if you don’t want to spend up for the Vikings or Jaguars.
Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk
All four of the ‘chalk’ options in Week 3 are viable. If you want to save a few dollars, the Cowboys are an excellent choice and all three high-priced options may be well worth their cost. If I had to choose, I’d lean towards the Bears keeping their momentum looking for a 2-1 start.
Week 3 DEFs -DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets
Targets (8% ownership or less)
Houston Texans
Look, I don’t want to just add teams to this list to add alternate options. There are very few identifiable plays worthy of a roster spot this week, so let’s keep it simple. Outside of the 4 chalk plays, the Texans ($2800) approach me as the next best option. Eli Manning and the Giants have struggled mightily to utilize the numerous offensive options they have (Barkley, Beckham, Engram, Shepard) and I am comfortable with the Texans, especially with the return of Jadeveon Clowney. At $2800, they are a solid option against a team that has yet to score over 15 points.
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