Fantasy Football: NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 3 2018

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 3 (Sun.-Mon.)

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of the NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where there may be some mis-priced players across Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft in favorable matchups.

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
• These players are but a sampling of who I feel are some of the best values at each position that week. However, with so many skills players in the NFL, there are certainly others worth considering, especially as late-breaking injury news comes out Sunday morning. Therefore, feel free to utilize this piece as a good guide for where some of the most prominent value lies, but not as an exhaustive list.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 3 slates!

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 3 (Sun.-Mon.) Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick, TAM vs. PIT- Yahoo ($29)/ FanDuel ($7,500)/ DraftKings ($6,000)

Fitzpatrick is priced too high on FantasyDraft, but he still represents a nice value on the other three sites. We don’t have to go over what Fitz has done over the first two weeks, as he’s essentially been the talk of the NFL. While eclipsing 400 yards each week is naturally unsustainable, the veteran certainly has a chance to put together another solid effort versus a Steelers defense that proved vulnerable to the pass last week in particular.

Pittsburgh does have the benefit of getting Joe Haden back from injury this week, but Fitzpatrick essentially has more weapons at his disposal than Pittsburgh can effectively cover. Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard have all been excellent over the first two games, while Cameron Brate hasn’t even gotten cranked up yet but certainly carries plenty of upside in his own right.

Fitzpatrick also offers the benefit of supplementing his fantasy production with his legs, and it’s worth noting the Pittsburgh defense has allowed the second-most DraftKings (33.2) and FanDuel (31.7) fantasy points to quarterbacks over the first two weeks, along with the most rushing yards to the position (95).

Ryan Tannehill, MIA vs. OAK- Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($6,600)/ DraftKings ($5,300)/ FantasyDraft ($10,900)

Tannehill has quietly put together two solid games to open the season in his return from his torn ACL, completing 72.5 percent of his 51 attempts while generating a 4:2 TD:INT. Head coach Adam Gase seems to be keeping things fairly conservative with his veteran quarterback, but he could begin opening things up versus a Raiders defense that can be exploited through the air.

One of the big factors in Tannehill’s favor this week is the return of DeVante Parker, who’s slated to make his season debut after missing the first two weeks with a finger injury. Parker should take away some defensive attention from Kenny Stills, and he’ll give Tannehill a valuable second deep passing weapon that should keep the defense honest. Tight end A.J Derby also found the end zone for the first time last week, and he could be integrated further against an Oakland squad that struggled against the tight end position last season when they still had the services of Khali Mack.

Mitchell Trubisky, CHI at ARI- Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($5,500)/ FantasyDraft ($10,400)

Trubisky’s passing numbers have been modest thus far, but he offers a decent floor due to his elite rushing ability and is already displaying excellent rapport with prize offseason acquisition Allen Robinson. The second-year signal caller has also handled whatever portions of the offense that head coach Matt Nagy has exposed to him relatively well, as he’s completed just under 70.0 percent of his passes while averaging a robust 69 attempts through two weeks.

Trubisky’s accuracy dovetails well with the Cardinals’ defense’s vulnerability to opposing quarterbacks thus far, as they’ve allowed a 72.6 percent completion percentage through the first two games, along with 21.0 DraftKings and 19.5 FanDuel fantasy points per contest to the position. Patrick Peterson does figure to see plenty of Robinson, but Jamar Taylor, Brandon Williams and Bene Benwikere can all be exposed. Meanwhile, Arizona has also allowed a pair of touchdowns to tight ends over the first two games, potentially leaving a Trubisky to Trey Burton connection poised for success.

DRAFTKINGS-ONLY SPECIAL:

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. NO- $5,700

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 3 (Sun.-Mon.) Running Backs

Tevin Coleman, ATL vs. NO- Yahoo ($22)/ FanDuel ($7,300)/ DraftKings ($6,400)/ FantasyDraft ($12,000)

Coleman will have lead-back duties again this week, and with the Falcons sporting a projected point total of just over four touchdowns, he’s certainly worth a look if you’re trying to keep costs reasonable at running back. The fourth-year back turned 16 carries into 107 yards in Week 2 against the Panthers, adding four grabs for 18 yards along the way.

The Saints have been solid against the run over the first two weeks on a YPC basis, but they’ve still allowed 102.5 rushing yards per contest. Coleman should be in for another 20-25 touches again in Week 3, as he can remain on the field for all three downs given his pass-catching acumen. Ito Smith did prove to be an effective complement to Coleman against Carolina, but the Falcons are likely to turn much more frequently to the more experienced player in what should be a tight home game against a division opponent.

Matt Breida, SF at KC- Yahoo ($19)/ FanDuel ($6,200)/ DraftKings ($5,400)/ FantasyDraft ($10,300)

Breida does carry some risk, as he’s still sharing time pretty evenly with Alfred Morris. However, the second-year back clearly has the ability to generate chunk plays, as he demonstrated in Week 2 with a 63-yard touchdown run versus the Lions. Now he draws a matchup against a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the second-most DraftKings points to running backs (39.2) through the first two games, along with the fifth-most FanDuel points (32.5).

Breida has 11 rushing touches apiece through the first two weeks — including four red-zone carries versus Detroit — and he encouragingly added three receptions (on four targets) in Week 2. The game conditions also help make a case for him as a value option Sunday, as the 49ers have a projected total of over 24 points.

Latavius Murray, MIN vs. BUF– Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($5,200)/ DraftKings ($5,800)/ FantasyDraft ($11,000)

Murray’s stock went up considerably Friday afternoon when Dalvin Cook was officially ruled out of Sunday’s Week 3 battle against the Bills with a hamstring injury. That should set Murray up for 20-25 touches at minimum in a game during which the rushing attack should be featured heavily, especially in the second half.

Murray already handled 11 carries in Week 1, and he hit or exceeded the 20-carry mark on four occasions over the last six games of 2017 when Cook was injured. He’s got the frame to handle the heavy workload, and with a Bills team that’s allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points (38.0) and second-most FanDuel points (33.7) to running backs over the first two weeks, he could be poised to offer a solid return on a reasonable price.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Corey Clement, PHI vs. IND- Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($5,800)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($9,000)

DRAFTKINGS-ONLY SPECIAL:

David Johnson, ARI vs. CHI ($7,200)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 3 (Sun.-Mon.) Wide Receivers

Nelson Agholor, PHI vs. IND- Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($6,600)/ DraftKings ($6,100)/ FantasyDraft ($12,500)

Mike Wallace (lower leg) is on injured reserve, while Alshon Jeffery is unlikely to play despite a questionable designation, since he’s yet to be cleared for contact. That would leave Agholor front and center for targets on the wideout corps on a week when Carson Wentz will make his season debut.

Agholor logged seven of his eight touchdowns last season with Wentz at the controls, and the two showed excellent rapport until the latter’s Week 14 ACL injury. The Colts were solid versus the Redskins’ largely conservative passing attack in Week 2, but they did allow a 75.0 percent completion rate to Andy Dalton in Week 1. Agholor has seen double-digit targets over his first two games, and given the depleted nature of Philadelphia’s receiving corps and Wentz’s return, that level of opportunity certainly wouldn’t be out of the question versus Indianapolis.

Cooper Kupp, LAR vs. LAC- Yahoo ($20)/ FanDuel ($6,300)/ DraftKings ($4,900)/ FantasyDraft ($10,100)

Kupp typically doesn’t have the flashy numbers of the top two receivers in Sean McVay’s offense, but he’s a perfect third wideout that also sees plenty of red-zone opportunity. Kupp already has six looks inside the opponent’s 20 over the first two games, and he’s logged a solid 15 targets overall during that stretch.

The Chargers came into the season believing that their secondary was a strong point, but they’ve already allowed four touchdowns to wide receivers over the first two weeks, along with 17.6 yards per grab. Kupp should be able to avoid the blanket coverage of Casey Heyward and No. 2 corner Trevor Williams, putting him in plus matchups throughout the afternoon with a sharp Jared Goff (64.6 completion percentage) at the controls.

Sammy Watkins, KC vs. SF- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($6,200)/ DraftKings ($5,100)/ FantasyDraft ($10,800)

Watkins is likely to go modestly owned in tournaments once again this week despite a breakout effort in Week 2, as the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are bigger names who had excellent performances themselves. The pricing algorithms on all four sites weren’t overly impressed either, as he remains a bargain across the industry.

The Chiefs currently have the highest total on the slate (30.75) and will face a 49ers team that’s allowed an elevated 47.6 DraftKings points and 37.6 FanDuel points to wide receivers over the first two weeks, along with 14.8 yards per catch and three touchdowns. Watkins turned a solid seven targets into six catches for 100 yards in Week 2, adding a 31-yard run. That type of volume is certainly conceivable in what’s projected to be another high-scoring shootout for Kansas City, making it very feasible for Watkins to provide another strong return on affordable prices.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Kenny Golladay, DET vs. NE- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($5,800)/ DraftKings ($6,000)/ FantasyDraft ($8,000)

Tyler Boyd, CIN at CAR- Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($4,700)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 3 (Sun.-Mon.) Tight Ends/Team Defense

Tight Ends

Will Dissly, SEA vs. DAL- Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($4,600)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,400)

The bargain section of the tight end pool is somewhat thin on viable options in Week 3, but Dissly has to be considered after getting into the end zone over the first two weeks. The rookie has shrugged off his blocking-tight-end reputation during his first pair of NFL games, averaging a whopping 24.5 yards per catch.

Dissly has notched 10 targets over the first two weeks, and with Doug Baldwin (knee) out again in Week 3, he should see his fair share of attention again versus the Cowboys. Dallas has already yielded 13 receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown to the tight end position this season, leading to averages of 15.0 DraftKings points and 11.7 FanDuel points allowed to the position per contest.

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. NO- Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($5,200)/ DraftKings ($2,900)/ FantasyDraft ($5,600)

Hooper’s price is worthy of a double take on all four sites, especially considering the Falcons’ projected total of over four touchdowns and Hooper’s own 5-59-1 line from Week 2. The third-year tight end could see between six and eight targets in what could turn into a shootout between Matt Ryan and Drew Brees, and his athleticism down the seam could especially come into play if New Orleans devotes extra resources to slowing Julio Jones.

ALSO CONSIDER:

O.J. Howard, TB vs. PIT- Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($5,600)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($7,500)

Team Defense

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks– Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($2,200)/ FantasyDraft ($3,900)

Most affordable defenses in Week 3 have plenty of warts, and that technically includes the Cowboys. However, Dallas is in an interesting position versus a Seahawks team that gives up sacks by the boatload. Seattle has allowed six sacks apiece to the Broncos and Bears over the first two games, while the Cowboys are tied with the Browns — which have already played three games — for the second-most sacks (nine) thus far this season.

The Cowboys have allowed just 183 passing yards per game over the first pair of contests, while surrendering just 3.7 yards per rush and yielding a scant 14.5 points per game. Seattle will be down Doug Baldwin once again as well, which will give Russell Wilson one less option when he’s desperately scanning the field while trying to avoid pass rushers.

Given their near-minimum price and ability to get to the quarterback, the Cowboys could rack up some turnovers in addition to sacks in Week 3.