DraftKings MLB Picks September 24: Kluber or Severino?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks September 24: Kluber or Severino?
We have a dozen games for our last Monday main DraftKings tournament of the season. Many of you have already checked out. I will admit that I don’t really find it all that exciting to play in the tiny Sunday tournaments anymore. However, if you want weekday action besides the NFL or NCAA showdown games, there is still money to be made in MLB. There is a large upper tier of aces tonight, but not much in the lower tiers. How should we go after this? Let’s take a look!
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Rain is likely in Washington, and could threaten postponement. Rain is possible in Chicago, but the game should play. There is risk in St Louis as well, especially in the later innings.
There is a 12 mph wind in from right in Boston, and the normal Bay Area breeze. If Washington plays, the wind will be blowing in as well.
This time of year we really have to be careful with player sitting. If you can’t check before game locks, it might be best to just avoid these. With the expanded rosters, players are sitting more frequently.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
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Top Tier:
Luis Severino ($11,100): This is a tough sell with the way that Severino has pitched lately. He has a 5.24 ERA over his last ten starts. However, Severino has averaged 24.2 DraftKings points in three starts against the Rays this year. The Trop would seem to be a park upgrade, but Severino’s ERA is more than a run worse on the road. With nearly a full slate today, I don’t see a really good reason to move up to Severino.
Corey Kluber ($10,900): The White Sox are hitting just .215 against Kluber with eight homers, 17 runs, and 86 strikeouts in 237 at bats. I wouldn’t call those numbers great, but Kluber’s 2018 numbers against the White Sox are. In three starts against them, Kluber has racked up 100.2 DraftKings points. Kluber’s strikeout numbers may be down across the board, but not here. He has fanned 28 White Sox in 21 innings. Kluber is an elite play tonight, especially if Jose Abreu‘s five homers and 12 RBI off of him remain out of the lineup.
Stephen Strasburg ($10,700): The Marlins are only hitting .214 with two homers and four runs in 98 at bats against Strasburg with a staggering 32 strikeouts. Strasburg has 58.4 DraftKings points in two starts against Miami this year. If you are going to pay up at pitcher, Strasburg is a strong candidate. These are the kinds of numbers you look for when paying up for an ace.
Middle Tier:
Jack Flaherty ($9,100): The Brewers are only hitting .164 off of Flaherty with only one homer and three runs in 61 at bats. This is a dangerous lineup, but with the way Flaherty is pitching lately and the way he has handled Milwaukee overall, this looks like a very reasonable price. When you consider that Flaherty has 30 strikeouts in those 61 at bats, he looks like a bargain!
Tyler Anderson ($6,000): Anderson has had a few awful outings over his last ten starts, which has inflated his ERA. However, most of those starts have been of the quality variety. It’s just that the bad ones have been really bad. That makes Anderson a risk, but his ERA is still better at home, and he dominated the Phillies in Philly earlier this year. There is solid value with Anderson here.
Bargain Pitchers:
Daniel Mengden ($4,900): Mengden has been outstanding coming in after someone else opens the game. The A’s are going to try him starting the game off again tonight. This could be the place to still use Mengden on the cheap. The Mariners only have three runs in 45 at bats with 11 strikeouts against Mengden. The problem is that all three of those runs were allowed on the 1st of September in just two innings.
Ryan Yarbrough ($4,800): Yarbrough has a tough test in the Yankees, but he has held them to four runs in 12 innings this season. Coming in during the second or third innings has worked well for Yarbrough. He will still have a chance for the win here. Yarbrough has three wins against New York this year. I see solid value for the price here.
Adrian Sampson ($4,300): How many DraftKings points are acceptable from a pitcher this cheap? I’m only asking because Sampson started in Anaheim 13 days ago and picked up a respectable 10.9 DraftKings points. There isn’t a lot of upside here since Sampson wont go deep into the game and has just five strikeouts in 11 major league innings. However, he allows for a major Coors stack, and even a hybrid Coors/Red Sox stack if you use him with Yarbrough.
Houston Astros vs. Marco Estrada:
Estrada is the cheapest priced pitcher on the slate for a reason. He is even cheaper than Rays opener Diego Castillo! A bad season for Estrada has only gotten worse with a 7.12 ERA over his last ten starts. There is a lot to like here with the Astros bats. Tyler White, Josh Reddick, and Evan Gattis have homered off of Estrada so far. At least one name should be added to the list tonight. Everyone in an Astros uniform is worth consideration here.
Boston Red Sox vs. Dylan Bundy:
Bundy has stuggled almost as much as Estrada. The one thing that is true for both is that 2018 was largely a lost season. The Red Sox are not a good way to end it on a high note. The Red Sox are hitting .280 with 12 homers and 32 runs in 232 at bats against Bundy. Mookie has three of those homers. Bogaerts has two. Brock Holt, Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez, Sandy Leon, Benintendi, Devers, and Bradley have all homered off of Bundy as well. A Red Sox stack is expensive, but it could be worth it.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Junior Guerra?
This is a supposed bullpen game for the Brewers, but I would think that Guerra gets a bulk of the innings. Guerra has been better out of the bullpen, but the fact remains that he has a 7.02 ERA on the season. Milwaukee’s pen is mostly good, so if Guerra isn’t going to pitch a bulk of the innings, I’m probably really only after Carpenter and Paul DeJong. If Guerra goes, I want some of the power potential of Jose Martinez, O’Neill, and Ozuna.
Colorado Rockies vs. Zach Eflin:
It seems like it’s been forever since Colorado has been at home. More accurately, it has been a while since Colorado has had a good matchup at home. The Rockies are hitting .344 with three homers and eight runs in just 32 at bats. Blackmon has two homers and four RBI in just five at bats. Parra has the other homer. It’s all hands on deck as the Rockies are still within striking distance for the division and/or wild card. All starters should play for them, which makes this a relatively easy stack to use.
San Francisco Giants vs. Bryan Mitchell:
It takes a special matchup for me to consider stacking Giants, but this could be just that. The Giants are hitting .406 with two homers and seven runs in just 32 at bats against Mitchell. Crawford and Longoria have the homers. Panik, Pence, and Chris Shaw are looking good enough to stack with right now. The best part? All of them are $3,800 or less.
Top Tier:
I don’t know how much I trust Sandy Alcantara here. He knocked around a bit by the Nationals last week. However, I’m not exactly sure how much I trust the Nationals offense either. I may take a run at him with Soto or Harper, but again, with nearly a full slate, there are likely better options.
The Cubs have hammered Taillon so far in his career. Javy Baez and Rizzo both have two homers and five RBI off of him already. Bryant and Schwarber have taken him deep as well, so some high end Cubs at not so high end prices could pay off here.
Covey pitched reasonably well against Cleveland last week. Most of the high end names like Donaldson, Lindor, and Edwin have really struggled against Covey. Jose Ramirez is 3-7, but has no counting stats. The best play here may be Michael Brantley. Brantley is 6-13 with two runs and a steal. Kipnis and Melky are the only two that have homered off of Covey, so a few mid range Indians may be the way to go.
Although Felix Pena handled Texas earlier this year, he hasn’t pitched all that well lately or at home. I want to take a shot at Pena with Gallo and/or Odor here.
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Middle Tier:
Jake Bauers is the only current Ray to homer off of Severino. If you are going to go after him though, I think I prefer Joey Wendle, Choi, or Mallex Smith.
The Blue Jays haven’t homered against Keuchel yet, but that could change after tonight with the amount of right handed power that the Jays have. I kind of want to take a shot here at reasonable prices. Lourdes Gurriel, Grichuk, Pillar, Diaz, and Teoscar Hernandez are all worth considering in GPP formats.
The Orioles have hit Eovadli hard, in particular Chris Davis. Davis has two homers against him already. Caleb Joseph has one. The only Oriole that I am really interested in though is Mullins. I could be talked into Beckham for a flier, but there are better places to attack pitchers.
Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have both homered against Derek Holland, but it is still pretty hard to hit one of out AT&T Park. There are better places to attack, but Reyes is certainly cheap enough to throw out there.
Robbie Ray hasn’t pitched well at home, so I want some Dodger righties. Matt Kemp has two homers off of Ray. Kike has three. Manny Machado homered against Ray in his only start against him.
Hamels got blasted in his last outing. I really like Starling Marte and Cervelli here. Josh Harrison is worth a look on the cheap tonight as well.
Bargain Shoppers:
Clayton Kershaw has been a mortal at Chase Field with a 3.65 ERA in 14 career starts. The best part is that you still get the discount for the hitters facing an elite pitcher. If you want to take a shot or two at Kershaw, this is a pretty good place to do it. Christian Walker has two homers in two career at bats against Kershaw, making him a great GPP play. Goldy has three homers against Kershaw. Chris Stewart has hit him hard if he starts. Eduardo Escobar is the only other Diamondback that has enjoyed a little bit of success against Kershaw.
Jose Fernandez hit a solo homer against Adrian Sampson two weeks ago. He was the only Angel to get a run off of him, but I certainly could be talked into Calhoun or Trout here as well.
Some of the Phillies are pretty cheap considering they are at Coors Field tonight. Both Jorge Alfaro and Maikel Franco have homered off of Tyler Anderson, and they are both $4,000 or less. If you are looking to spend a little more, Hoskins and Bautista look good for the power potential.
Kyle Seager is about the only Mariner I trust for the price right now. Maybe Nelson Cruz because he hammers everything at home, but beyond that, I’ll save my money.
Paxton’s career numbers against the A’s are good, but not great. Add in the fact that he hasn’t pitched in over two weeks, and I’ll take my chances with a couple of A’s. Semien has homered off of him twice, and can be found in the bargain bin. Mark Canha is worth a look as well.
Peter O’Brien may be worth a look for the power potential since he slugged a homer off of Strasburg earlier this month. However, I’m not crazy about any Marlins hitters tonight.
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