DraftKings MLB Picks September 25: Can Max figure out the Marlins?

BOSTON, MA – JUNE 26: David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox receives an intentional walk as the clouds and rain roll over the field during a game against the Colorado Rockies in the 7th inning at Fenway Park on June 26, 2013 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks September 25: Can Max figure out the Marlins?

The Royals and Reds start earlier than everyone else, so they are off of the main DraftKings slate. We still have 14 games though. We have a few aces, but the middle tier is once again lacking and there are at least two bullpen days going. We had one probable starter scratched last night, so keep a close eye on this down the stretch.

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If they wait long enough, the games in Boston and Chicago may play, but none of those three will likely start on time. There is serious risk here since they may elect to go with doubleheaders tomorrow to get these in. The Chicago ones will be safe after about 9pm central, but Boston may not be until midnight eastern. Will they wait it out?

If the Fenway game plays, there is a nice 14 mph wind blowing out to right. The usual Bay Area breeze is out there as well.

This time of year we really have to be careful with player sitting. If you can’t check before game locks, it might be best to just avoid these. With the expanded rosters, players are sitting more frequently.

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

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ST. LOUIS, MO – SEPTEMBER 14: Walker Buehler #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers is congratulated in the dugout after leaving the game in the eighth inning at Busch Stadium on September 14, 2018 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Max Scherzer ($12,800): Scherzer’s career numbers against the Marlins aren’t as dominant as you may expect. The Fish are only hitting .184 against Max, but they do have six homers and 14 runs in 136 at bats. They also have 38 strikeouts. Scherzer has only averaged 23.2 DraftKings points per game in his four starts against Miami this year, despite going 4-0 against them. His last start in Washington netted 27.9 though, so I could see Scherzer getting close to 30. I could also see him hovering around 20, so it’s up to you if you think he’s worth it or not. The upside is certainly there though.

Walker Buehler ($11,700): Buehler has a 1.68 ERA over his last ten starts. One of those was a domination of the Diamondbacks, the same team he faces tonight. Buehler has the strikeout upside and the Diamondbacks have really struggled at home. There is a ton of upside here, and I don’t see a whole lot of risk.

Trevor Bauer ($10,400): The White Sox are hitting just .188 against Bauer with three homers and 11 runs in 186 at bats to go with 69 strikeouts. Kluber dominated this team last night. Bauer should do the same. In three starts against the White Sox this year, Bauer has 95.2 DraftKings points. He is an acceptable fade to Scherzer based on the opponent alone. The problem here could be if Cleveland doesn’t let him go deep into the game since they already have their playoff spot locked up.

Middle Tier:

David Price ($9,500): The Orioles are only hitting .223 against Price with three homers and 14 runs in 188 at bats with 59 strikeouts. We saw Eovaldi shut down the Orioles last night. This is a night for Price to do it as well. However, with so much rain in the forecast, Boston may elect to push Price back anyway to avoid the rain. They have already clinched the East, so keep an eye on this.

Josh James ($8,100): James has pitched well for the Astros this year, putting up a 2.81 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 21.1 innings. This is a favorable matchup against the Blue Jays, who hit lefties better than righties. They also offer enough strikeout potential to make James worth this price even if he does only go five innings.

Touki Toussaint ($7,500): It’s thin lower tier, and Toussaint is about as safe as I feel for a SP2. He has decent strikeout upside, so that helps to tolerate his 4.30 ERA. Of course, facing the Mets doesn’t hurt either. Toussaint has a strikeout per inning in the majors this year. The Mets shouldn’t do anything to hurt that ratio.

Bargain Pitchers:

Robbie Erlin ($5,400): This takes a bit of a leap of faith since Erlin has not pitched well against the Giants and Erlin has not pitched all that well on the road. Still, this is a pitcher’s park with a struggling offense in it. I tried to stack against a Padres lefty last night, and the Giants got shut out. There is decent potential here for Erlin.

Matt Koch ($5,100): Koch has been a serviceable pitcher for Arizona this year, but he carries little to no upside. However, Koch has been much better at home, and this Dodgers lineup always seems to fall short of expectations. Still, Koch isn’t getting out of this unscathed, and his lack of strikeouts wont bail him out if he gets in trouble. Cracking double digit DraftKings points could be a chore, which makes this a tough sell.

Kohl Stewart ($4,600): Stewart picked up 23.9 DraftKings points on Detroit last week after having an opener go through the meat of the lineup the first time around. This approach has worked well for the young Twins pitchers so far, so expect that to continue through the end of the season. There is obvious upside for Stewart here, but we all saw how awful he was upon his arrival. It’s hard to trust one game, even though the Twins are duplicating the favorable situation for him.

CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 22: Michael Brantley #23 of the Cleveland Indians is mobbed by teammates as they celebrate after Brantley hit a walk off single against the Boston Red Sox in the eleventh inning at Progressive Field on September 22, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Indians defeated the Red Sox 5-4 in 11 innings. (Photo by David Maxwell/Getty Images) /

Washington Nationals vs. Jeff Brigham:

Brigham had his best start against Cincy last week, but that was in Miami. Most Marlins pitchers have struggled on the road, and Brigham is no exception. The Nats put up seven runs last night, and could again tonight. I like Harper, Soto, and Rendon for sure. Trea Turner and Matt Wieters look like pretty good options as well.

Boston Red Sox vs. Jimmy Jacobonis:

No official starter has been announced for Baltimore yet, but it is Jacobonis’ turn to play pitching machine again. He has struggled in the majors this year. If this game plays, you want to stack Red Sox. All Red Sox are in play, but paying up for Mookie and Martinez seems to be the right way to start. Fill it in with whatever fits your budget.

Cleveland Indians vs. James Shields:

Shields has been pounded lately, and Cleveland has hit him pretty hard over his career. Yonder Alonso and Edwin have each homered three times against Shields. Lindor, Donaldson, and Michael Brantley have done it twice each. Jose Ramirez and Adam Rosales have one each. Pretty much the entire lineup is in play here, though it is worth noting that Ramirez is just 2-17(.118) lifetime off of Shields despite the homer.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chad Bettis:

I was on the Rockies side of Coors last night. Tonight is the night to lean heavy towards Phillies. Bettis has a 7.65 ERA at home this year. He has been better out of the bullpen, which means that Bettis wont go deep into the game. The good news for those of us stacking Phillies is that the long relief part of this bullpen can be had too. Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Cesar Hernandez, and Wilson Ramos are my stack. Who is in yours?

Los Angeles Angels vs. Yovani Gallardo:

The Angels are hitting .333 with tow homers and 13 runs in just 84 at bats against Gallardo. This is a cheap stack if you are paying for pitching. Simmons and Jose Fernandez have the homers, and will set you back a combined $7,100. Mike Trout is 4-9 against Gallardo. Kole Calhoun and Francisco Arcia have hit Gallardo well enough to throw in there as well. David Fletcher looks good if you want another cheap option. If price isn’t a concern, I like Upton with Trout.

MILWAUKEE, WI – SEPTEMBER 19: Jesus Aguilar #24 of the Milwaukee Brewers hits a home run in the third inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park on September 19, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Believe it or not, Thor has actually not pitched well against the Braves at all. Freddie Freeman has a homer and seven RBI against him in just 15 at bats. Ozzie Albies has homered off of him as well, so either one or both of those for a mini stack look pretty good.

The Dodgers have plenty of lefty power if you want to go after Matt Koch. Bellinger is the only one with a homer so far, but Pederson, Muncy, and Yasiel Puig are all worth a look as well.

Austin Gomber does have the upside of holding the platoon advantage against most of the Milwaukee lineup. The bad news is that Jesus Aguilar is right handed. So is Ryan Braun if you want to throw him out there.

I’m really tempted to stack against Velasquez, but he has pitched really well against righties this year. Still, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl look like elite plays. CarGo and Gerardo Parra are worth a look too.

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Middle Tier:

The Yankees-Rays game just seems like one to leave alone on all sides. However, neither option that the Rays could send to the mound look thrilling. I may throw McCutchen or Judge out there just to see what happens.

Nelson Cruz destroys lefties, especially at home. It also doesn’t hurt that he has two career homers against Brett Anderson. The downside is that those are his only two hits in 18 at bats. Healy and the white hot Robinson Cano are worth a look instead or as a compliment to Cruz.

Gaviglio has pitched well enough at home that I’m not going to go hard after him, but Evan Gattis has homered off of him twice in three at bats. Reddick has also taken him deep, and both of them are reasonably price. Honestly, it’s hard to pass on Bregman for under $5,000 as well.

I don’t really trust Chris Archer against the Cubs, but this doesn’t really seem like the best place to attack either, especially when you factor in the weather. A rainy night in Wrigley could result in many a Cub sitting this out if and when it does start. I’ll take Schwarber and Rizzo if they are in the lineup, but I wouldn’t count too heavily on them being in there.

Gio Gonzalez has pitched well with the Brewers but not well against the Cardinals. I’m tempted to split the difference and just leave this alone, but Gyorko and DeJong at their prices are very tempting.

Most of the Rangers offense is getting discounted against Matt Shoemaker. To this I say thanks! I don’t expect Texas to blow him up, but Choo and Odor for a combined $7,900? I have room for that in my lineup! Elvis Andrus at just $3,100 looks like a steal as well.

Bargain Shoppers:

Despite terrible career numbers against Oakland, Mike Leake has managed to pitch pretty well against them this year. Still, Lucroy and Matt Chapman have both homered twice against Leake. I’ll take a shot with one or both of them. Piscotty is 6-17(.353) with a homer and four RBI off of Leake, so he is worth a look too.

Going after a couple of cheap Marlins on a homer hunt isn’t the worst idea. Dietrich has smacked two homers off of Scherzer in his career. Miguel Rojas, Realmuto, Starlin Castro, and Yadiel Rivera have taken Scherzer deep once each.

For the Blue Jays, I am really only interested in the lower tier, if at all. That means Lourdes Gurriel and maybe Aledmys Diaz.

At this point, the only Giants that I would even consider are Longoria and Pence, and I’m not crazy about either one of them.

Trey Mancini is about the only Oriole I really have my eye on if Price takes the mound. If it’s a different lefty and this game plays, I’ll load up on the right handed Orioles power with the wind blowing out to left.

Cheap Pirates may be the way to go after Montgomery. Cervelli and Jordy Mercer have the homers off of him, and they should both be in the lineup.

I don’t trust Turnbull and I don’t trust the Twins offense, but I do trust the fact that I may need some cheap players. Ehire Adrianza and Willians Astudillo fit the bill and hit Turnbull well in his start against them.

Next. MLB picks and pivots September 24. dark

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