DraftKings CFB picks September 28: Build around Henderson
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings CFB picks September 28: Build around Henderson
We only have two games for our DraftKings tournament on Friday night, but there are a couple of potent offenses and bad defenses on display. There wont be as much parity in the lineups, but there are still ways to separate ourselves in GPP formats. Let’s explore those options!
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If you used Milton last Friday, you cashed. I don’t really see anyone on this Friday slate that can have the monster that Milton did, but a couple could come close.
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Top Tier:
Brady White ($9,800): While you wont be confusing White with Paxton Lynch anytime soon, White has been very efficient as a passer even if the numbers aren’t huge. That said, White has two five touchdown performances in four games. While Tulane’s defense isn’t as bad as Ohio State made them look, Memphis will still get plenty of cracks at this secondary.
Steven Montez ($9,100): UCLA’s defense has been awful, particularly against the pass. Montez exploited a Nebraska team that couldn’t cover his receivers. That is UCLA’s fate here. White may have a slightly higher ceiling, but I would say that Montez has a higher floor. UCLA’s offense is improving enough that they may stay in the game longer than Tulane does against Memphis, meaning more passing opportunities for Montez.
Middle Tier:
Jonathan Banks ($7,500): Memphis doesn’t have much of a defense, so Banks has some upside here. Lost in the shuffle of how bad Banks has been as a passer in the last two games is the fact that he has ran the ball 45 times in four games this year. His ability to make plays with his legs given him a bit of a higher ceiling than most in his price range. That said, with only four QBs to choose from, you are betting that Banks has room to run against Memphis. It wont matter much if he can’t start completing some passes. If you take out the Nicholls State game, Banks is just 33-75 on the season.
Bargain Shoppers:
Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($5,500): This situation could be muddled if Wilton Speight is cleared to play in the next couple of days. However, I would think that UCLA will still go with DTR since he is more of a Chip Kelly style quarterback. DTR showed off his legs against Fresno, but he was unable to complete passes like he did against Oklahoma. Colorado’s defense isn’t anything to write home about, so I like DTR as a punt play at S-Flex here so long as Speight stays where he belongs – on the sidelines.
Top Tier:
Darrell Henderson ($9,400): Henderson has scored at least two touchdowns in each of the last three games. There is no reason to think Tulane can keep him out of the end zone. Henderson also has at least 180 rushing yards in all of those games. Tulane’s run defense is probably better than any Memphis has faced so far, but I doubt they keep Henderson under the century mark or out of the end zone. He should be worth the price once again.
Middle Tier:
Travon McMillian ($6,600): McMillian got a ton of work on the ground against a poor New Hampshire team. Will Colorado commit to the balance they showed in that game? They may be able to since UCLA has struggled defending, well, anything. I still see risk here, namely in Evans and Bishart stealing carries. McMillian is still the number one back, but he only has four carries more than Bishart and 13 more than Evans.
Darius Bradwell ($5,200): Not surprisingly, the Tulane offense did almost nothing against Ohio State. Bradwell was the only Green Wave player to find the end zone, but it was Corey Dauphine who led the team in rushing yards and Banks who led the team in carries. On top of that, Memphis has a better run defense than pass defense. There is significant risk involved, and honestly, I like Dauphine more as the cheaper back.
Bargain Shoppers:
Bolu Olorunfunmi ($3,900): UCLA’s running game has been terrible, and the only thing that makes Olorunfunmi worth considering is the fact that he has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season. However, that makes him touchdown dependent, and a very big risk. Colorado’s run defense isn’t great, but Olorunfunmi is mainly just the short yardage back.
Kazmeir Allen ($3,800): Allen is about the only player in the UCLA backfield capable of busting a big play, but Fresno shut him down completely and Oklahoma mostly kept him in check. Colorado’s run D is likely worse than both of those, but what I noticed the most is that after the opener, teams have keyed on Allen because no one else in this offense can beat them. Allen is a home run threat, but also a huge risk, just like with anyone else in the UCLA backfield.
Tony Pollard ($3,100): Henderson is the featured back in the offense, but it is Pollard who is on the field for sure passing downs. He has six receptions over the last two games, so Pollard has a little upside if you think Tulane is going to keep it somewhat close. If you don’t there isn’t much to see here. If Memphis isn’t in sure passing downs, Pollard wont play much.
Top Tier:
Laviska Shenault ($8,600): Shenault has been a monster all season, and UCLA doesn’t really have anyone that can cover him either. The Colorado passing game never really got going, nor did they need to against New Hampshire. In the two games against FBS opponents, Shenault went over 40 DraftKings points in both of them. He is the only must-play that I see on this whole slate. Get your separation elsewhere.
Damonte Coxie ($7,800): Coxie has emerged as the favorite target for White, hauling in 14 catches for 236 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games. Coxie looks to be in line for another big night against this Tulane defense. A true freshman was able to get nearly 300 yards on them in the opener. A veteran like White may pick Tulane apart.
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Middle Tier:
Darnell Mooney ($5,900): Mooney hauled in nearly half of Banks’ passing yards against Ohio State last weekend. He overtook Encelade in week 2, and doesn’t look to be giving up his status as the top receiver anytime soon. That said, there should be enough balls to go around against Memphis. Neither Tulane receiver is a bad play.
Theo Howard ($5,400): Howard has led the Bruins in receptions and yards in two of the three games. The only one he didn’t was against Oklahoma where Caleb Wilson got behind the defense. That could certainly happen here against Colorado as well, but Wilson was shut out against Fresno. Howard kept up his solid production, and is the safer pick.
Bargain Shoppers:
Pop Williams ($4,600): Williams seems to have eclipsed Gibson and Magnifico in the Memphis pecking order. He was quiet against Georgia State, but Memphis was content to run the ball all game. This is mostly a ground oriented team, but Williams is the only receiver to notch carries out of the backfield. Memphis will find some way to get him the ball.
Terren Encalade ($4,000): Encalade has been quiet since his huge game against Wake, but if he can manage double digit DraftKings points against Ohio State, Encalade could be a huge bargain against Memphis. Mooney is like to see more targets, but not so much that Encalade wont be a part of the game plan. I see good upside here for the price.
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