Familiar Faces, New Locations: NBA DFS and off-season moves

Familiar Faces, New Locations: NBA DFS and off-season moves

Are you ready for some NBA basketball? We have only 3 days until the preseason tips off and if you’re as big of an NBA fan as I am then I bet you’re also counting down the days.  I’m going to tip-off my NBA coverage this season with today’s feature on some big-name players who find themselves on new teams for this upcoming season and what the ripple effects will be for us NBA DFS players.

Let me quickly introduce myself. My name is Dan Palyo and an NBA DFS addict. Well, I love playing a lot of different DFS sports, but the NBA is my jam.  Blogging about NBA DFS is what first got me into the fantasy sports industry and it will always be my first love. I’m a 36-year-old high school teacher, football coach, husband, father, and a terribly depressed Cavs fan (seriously, LeBron?).  All I can say is I am extremely excited to be part of the FantasyCPR community and I look forward to providing you with some of the best NBA content I can this season.

If you play NBA preseason DFS, which I highly recommend if you’re someone who follows the league closely, you’ll have a leg up on the competition this year.  You’ll be more familiar with how the minutes might shake out among the starters and bench units, how individual players’ roles may change, and how rookies may impact the DFS landscape as well (more coming on this in another piece, soon).   Today, I want to highlight some situations to keep an eye on with some big-time NBA stars changing teams this offseason.

Kawhi Leonard – Toronto Raptors

One of the biggest questions of this off-season was “where is Kawhi going to going land?” A lot of speculation was that he would end up in Los Angeles with Lebron James, but the Spurs traded him and Danny Green in a fairly surprising move to the Toronto Raptors for Demar DeRozan and Jakob Poetl. Kawhi played only 9 games for the Spurs last season due to injuries and then an awkward situation where he refused to return to the team due to a dispute with management.

Kawhi is a different kind of dude (did you see this press conference the other day?) but the kid can play basketball. He’s one season removed from his ultra-efficient, downright ridiculous 25-6-3.5 2016 campaign in which he added 2.5 blocks/steals per game with a 31% usage rate.  He should be the focal point on offense for Toronto and will be replacing DeRozan’s 29% usage on the wing.  I could easily see him becoming the primary playmaker for the Raps, which would allow Kyle Lowry to play off the ball more often. I’m hoping he’s priced down at the beginning of the season because I will be loading up on shares on him early and often and he should look to establish himself as the lead dog on his new squad.

Familiar Faces, New Locations: NBA DFS and off-season moves

DeMar DeRozan – San Antonio Spurs

So with Kawhi in Canada, we now get everyone’s favorite ball-hog DeMar DeRozan in San Antonio playing for Coach Pop. This should be…interesting.  Pop has been well-known throughout the years for getting star players to buy-in to his offensive philosophy of moving the basketball, so it’s not impossible for DeRozan to change his isolation-heavy style of play. Even if he does take a small hit in overall production, the Spurs are going to need him to score as LaMarcus Aldridge is really their only other elite scoring option.  I’ll be curious to see Pop uses DeRozan and his mid-range game in this offense and I’m guessing we see DeMar struggle a little out of the gate to figure out his new role. He’ll likely be overpriced at the beginning of the season in DFS.

LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers

Oh, my heart. The entire state of Ohio (and some of us Pennsylvanians) was crushed by the news that King James was going to LA and leaving the Cavs for the second team in his career. Everyone knew it was coming, but it didn’t make hurt any less.

In LA, I expect LeBron’s fantasy production to continue to be elite.  One might expect his overall numbers to dip a little as he is another year older and should have less heavy lifting to do with some competent young talent around him.  Last year he played all 82 games, led the NBA in minutes played for a second straight season, and scored more Fanduel points than any other player. But, let’s get one thing straight – that is how LeBron wants it and I fully expect him to run the offense for the Lakers and rack up gaudy counting stats again. Triple-doubles on a nightly basis should be there.

What remains to be seen is how his arrival will impact the production of young players like Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, and Brandon Ingram. Lebron needs the ball in his hands on every possession, so I could definitely see Ball’s assist numbers taking a hit (especially with Rajon Rondo also now on the roster). However, Kuzma and Ingram could see a nice bump in production playing off the ball or in the pick and roll with Lebron. One thing is for sure, the Lakers will be exciting to watch and very DFS relevant on a nightly basis.

Familiar Faces, New Locations: NBA DFS and off-season moves

Carmelo Anthony – Houston Rockets

Listen, I’ve never been a fan of Melo at any point of his career. I’ve always thought he was a self-absorbed, overrated ball-hog who would never win a title in the NBA (outside of a scoring title maybe). We all know that point guard Gerry McNamara was the real MVP of the Syracuse NCAA championship…okay maybe that’s going a little too far.

I have this weird feeling that Melo was humbled last year by having to play third fiddle to Russell Westbrook and Paul George and that he is primed to have a bounce-back year and get a chance at his ring with the Rockets. He averaged a career-low 16 points per game last year and he’s seen his peripheral stats almost entirely disappear. But he’s joining one of the best offenses in the NBA with two bona-fide superstars in Chris Paul and James Harden running the show. With those two on the floor, Melo shouldn’t be asked to do too much other than knock down open 3’s, of which he did at a 36% rate last year.  And he will likely have his minutes staggered with Paul and Harden so that he can help bolster the scoring of the Rockets bench unit. Remember, this offense attempts more 3-pointers than any other team in the league and once made Ryan Anderson a viable fantasy player, so I think we could see Melo emerge as a reliable DFS asset on his new team.

Jabari Parker – Chicago Bulls

The Bulls should get some much-needed scoring punch on the wing with the arrival of Jabari Parker this year.  Parker is only 23 years old but has had two major knee surgeries already in his young career. If he can stay healthy, he should be primed for a big season for the Bulls alongside their other exciting young scorer Zach Lavine. Before getting hurt in 2016, Parker was averaging 20 points and 6 rebounds a game.  Last year, he returned midway through the season and was solid in limited minutes off the bench (24 min/game) with an average of 12 points and 5 rebounds per game. The kid can score with ease (I refer to him a lot as Carmelo-lite) and hit a career-best 38% from 3-point range last year.  If there are no minutes restrictions on Parker or Lavine to start the season, I’ll be looking to ride both of them as they should be leaned on to provide a lot of the scoring for this young Chicago team.

Familiar Faces, New Locations: NBA DFS and off-season moves

Gordon Hayward – Boston Celtics

So here is the only player on my list who’s actually not changing teams this off-season. But, poor Gordon Hayward had all of five minutes with his new Celtics teammates before he broke his leg in a gruesome injury on opening night against the Cavs. The Celtics brought Hayward in last year to be the perfect secondary option to Kyrie Irving and he was coming off a career-high 22 points per game in Utah the season before.

Hayward is an incredibly efficient scorer. He has a pure stroke from the outside and a knack for getting to the free throw line (6 times per game over his final 3 years in Utah). He can score 20 points pretty easily in a game and the Celtics will surely need him at times to keep the offense going. Kyrie hasn’t been the picture of health either, missing the end of the season and playoffs last year.  While the youngsters Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, and Jayson Tatum admirably picked up the slack and took the team further than most thought possible, none of them is the natural scorer that Hayward is.

Obviously, Hayward’s health is the big question mark but so far early reports are that he’s looked good and should be a full go by opening night. There’s been some talk that he could be rested every so many games early in the season, but if the Celtics are all healthy at once it’s going to tough to figure out which of them to use on a nightly basis as they should be one of the more well-rounded and deep teams in the NBA.  Keep that in mind when looking to roster Tatum, Smart, and Brown early on in the season as they might not be the bargains that were at times last year.

DeAndre Jordan – Dallas Mavericks

Mark Cuban finally got DJ, just a few years later than he had hoped. Honestly, this move shouldn’t really change much for Jordan’s nightly output. He is what he is at this point of his career – an incredibly efficient scorer and elite rebounder who still can’t hit a free throw to save his life.  He averaged 12 points and 15 rebounds last year for the Clippers and while he is still only 29 years old, we pretty much know what we are going to get from him on a nightly basis (it’s not like he developed a corner three in the off-season)

The Mavs aren’t going to run any plays for DJ, but he should benefit from playing with a good young point guard in Dennis Smith Jr. and won’t have to fight for any rebounds from old man Dirk Nowitzki. DJ usually provides a solid floor in DFS with his rebounding and a nice ceiling for tournaments if he has a big game scoring the ball or blocking some shots.

Familiar Faces, New Locations: NBA DFS and off-season moves

Dwight Howard – Washington Wizards

If there’s one player I dislike more than Carmelo Anthony it might be Dwight Howard. Washington added Howard this offseason after he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets and then bought out. This will be Dwight’s third team in the last three years and I’m not sure if he can help this Wizards team get over the hump this season. The NBA has changed a lot since Dwight first came into the league as a 19-year-old right out of high school.  The post-up center is a dying breed in today’s league and I just don’t see why Washington would want to try to feed him inside when they have an elite backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal, not to mention some pretty solid pieces on the wing in Otto Porter and Markieff Morris.

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Dwight’s minutes have dropped to about 30 per game in his last two seasons, and I think that’s likely the most you’ll see from him this year. He did manage to put up 16 points and 13 rebounds in 81 games for Charlotte last year, but he was often a focal point of a half-court offense there. His health is always a question mark and he reportedly already has had some back issues in training camp. The Wizards could also opt to go small with the addition of Jeff Green and bump Markieff to the 5, which would mean less minutes for D-12 down the stretch. I’m skeptical as to whether or not he will be a fantasy asset in his new surroundings.

Jimmy Butler??????

I saved the most uncertain and possibly most exciting situation for last. Jimmy B wants out of Minnesota after only one year with his former coach Tom Thibodeau.  It sounds like the T-Wolves are taking calls on him and a trade is more likely by the day.  He’s been rumored to teams like the Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers and even the Cleveland Cavs (yes, please!).

Wherever Butler ends up, he’s likely to have a major role on offense and has shown that he is a force to be reckoned with in the NBA. He’ll be in play on a nightly basis as a top DFS option.  The bigger news for me would be who Minnesota gets in return and how the other T-Wolves starters would be affected. Butler had a 25% usage rate last season and if Minnesota gets a more defensive-minded wing in return or perhaps some young players, we should expect the usage rates go way up for Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns as they all try to pick up the slack for the departed Butler.

Thanks for taking a few minutes to read my article today and please feel free to like, comment, or share it with friends. You can reach me at @ThunderDanDFS on twitter.