NFL DFS Quick Hits: Week 4

Go game-by-game with the NFL DFS Quick Hits and cut the fluff from your preliminary research!

If you thought that the NFL DFS chalk busted in week 2, you were in for yet another rude awakening in week 3. The Bills dismantling of the Vikings ruined the Latavius Murray, while Nelson Agholor and Corey Clement were rather underwhelming.

Weeks 2 and 3 taught us that chasing chalk is not always a good idea. Unlike some other sports, there’s much more variance in NFL and chasing that ownership isn’t necessarily always the best way to go in cash games. I fell victim to the same thing both of the last two weeks, but am looking forward to ditching the strategy in Week 4 and shake things up.

We also have our first byes of the season, as the Redskins and Panthers will sit this week out. Crazy to think we’re already getting to that point in the season, huh?

What are NFL DFS Quick Hits?

For those of who haven’t read my quick hits before, I’m not going to persuade you into plays and tout top plays of the slate. My goal is simple. I want to help lead you in the right direction and cut the fluff when you start your research. I will list all 15 games on the docket for Week 4 and highlight one piece of data, a trend, or notable narrative to help you focus your research.

I will also split up the article to make it an easier read. I will do this by breaking it up between the Thursday, Sunday (1 PM ET games), Sunday afternoon games and the Primetime games on separate slides.

*PFF Player grades refer to Pro Football Focus’ player grades that compile and evaluate the production of players both overall and in certain situations (i.e. receiving, run blocking, pass rush, coverage, etc.)

NFL – DFS Thursday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams

After getting absolutely embarrassed by the Bills in the most surprising outcome of the season last week, the Vikings look to bounce back against a suddenly depleted Rams secondary.

Star CBs Marcus Peters (calf, could miss up to 2-4 weeks) and Aqib Talib (ankle surgery) look primed to miss this matchup, leaving Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs a massive opportunity to feast. Sam Shields should slide into the #1 spot for the Rams, with Nickell Robey-Coleman and Troy Hill rounding out the secondary behind him. This sets up extremely well for Thielan, who carries a PFF grade of 79.1 (highest on the team), 44 targets (1st in entire NFL) into this match-up.

NFL – DFS Sunday (1 PM EST)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons

While there is a chance that Bengals RB Joe Mixon returns this week, Gio Bernard could come into a smash spot if he happens to sit. Without Deion Jones holding down the middle of the Atlanta defense, they let Alvin Kamara dice them up for 66 rushing yards, 124 receiving yards and 15 catches. Bernard has a history of heavy involvement in the passing game and was able to record 86 all-purpose yards (12 rushing attempts, 5 catches) and find the end zone in a much tougher match-up against the Panthers. He’s only $6,400 on FanDuel this week.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears

No player has ever topped 400 passing yards in three consecutive games until now, and that player is none other than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yes, you read that right. Aside from his 3 picks last week, he was still able to rack up 411 passing yards and 3 TDs in what was almost a brilliant comeback against the Steelers. He’s been near perfect, with a PFF offensive grade of 98.8 and a grade of 98.5 on passing snaps. This Bears pass rush may be the toughest he’s faced all season (14 sacks), but with his job on the line, the extra motivation makes him a viable play once again.

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

After going almost 5 years without a 100-yard rusher, Kerryon Johnson broke the string of struggling Lions RBs in Week 3 as he rushed for 101 yards against the Patriots. He saw his carries double from Week 2 to Week 3 (8 to 16) and after seeing only 16 snaps in week 1, he’s topped 30 in consecutive weeks. He has a chance to repeat this performance against a Cowboys defense that will be without Sean Lee (hamstring), who has already recorded 20 tackles this season.

Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers

Through three weeks this season, Bills quarterbacks have been sacked 14 times and picked off 4 times, even with an outlier game last week in which they were only sacked 3 times in their route of the Vikings. Not a single offensive line man on Buffalo has a PFF player grade over 64.8 (out of 100, so…not good), and if LeSean McCoy is to miss this game again, they cannot rely on Chris Ivory to top the century mark again. The Packers’ D has been victim of questionable officiating this season (Clay Matthews, to be specific), but they’re getting to the QB, hawking the ball, and come in at only $4,300 on FanDuel and open as the heaviest favorites on the board (-10).

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans

Carson Wentz likes tight ends. In his first game back from injury in Week 3, 21 of his 37 pass attempts (57%) went to the combination of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, and Josh Perkins. Ertz is expected to be the staple in this offense, but whether it was the Wentz effect or not, the spike for Goedert is noteworthy. After seeing 34 snaps combined through the first two weeks without a target in Week 2, he saw 55 offensive snaps in Week 3 with 7 catches on 7 targets and a touchdown. The Titans are the stingiest team in the NFL against TEs so we can expect them to key in on Zach Ertz, but Goedert might draw less attention and proved he can make the most of any opportunity he got last week.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

Having now played 6 career games with DeShaun Watson as his QB, Will Fuller has posted an average of 82 yards per game with 9 total touchdowns. While the TD rate may be unsustainable, the chemistry between the two is crystal clear. In this matchup with the Colts, we can confidently expect Pierre Desir to shadow DeAndre Hopkins, leaving Kenny Moore II to cover Fuller. Desir has been phenomenal to the tune of a PFF player grade of 86.1 in coverage, good for 8th overall in the NFL.

With their #1 CB on Hopkins, Fuller will get to work around Kenny Moore II, who ranks 44th in the NFL with a PFF grade in coverage of 67.8. If last week was any indication of target share, the combination of double-digit targets and a much easier matchup could lead to another blowup game for Fuller.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

One of the most surprising storylines of the young season, the 3-0 Dolphins look to keep their momentum going against a New England defense that currently ranks 7th worst in the league against WRs (allowing 29.40 fantasy points per game) and 12th worst in the league against QBs (19.07 fantasy points per game). While CBs Jason McCourty and Stephon Gilmore have been good, the safety situation in New England has been shaky at best. Duron Harmon is currently the 54th ranked FS in the league according to PFF with a grade of 59.9 (his lowest mark of his career), while Devin McCourty isn’t much better sitting at 36th overall with a 66.6 player grade (lowest since 2011).

This makes Kenny Stills a very intriguing option giving how many streak routes he runs per game, paired with Ryan Tannehill who is currently playing lights out. I would, however, reserve these plays for large-field GPPs.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Leonard Fournette may be the centerpiece of the Jacksonville offense but the splits for Blake Bortles with and without Fournette tell a bit of a different story. Aside from Week 3’s bust (155 passing yards, no TD), Bortles has averaged more than 100 yards per game more with Fournette off the field (323 passing yards per game compared to 203.9 passing yards per game), has a 9-1 TD/INT ratio and his completion percentage is almost 10% higher without him on the field.

Fournette is currently day-to-day with his hamstring injury and the Giants rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points per-game allowed to the quarterback position. Take it how you want, but Bortles is still under $7,000 on FanDuel.

NFL DFS – Sunday (4 PM EST)

Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders

I’m sure this is not the first time you are seeing Baker Mayfield mentioned as an option this week and it certainly won’t be the last, because the efficiency he played with last week was beyond impressive. Obviously sample size is small, but in his brief appearance, he posted a PFF player grade of 84.3 (would be good for 5th overall), and a PFF grade of 82.8 in passing plays (would be good for 7th). Again, this is a small sample size, 46 snaps to be exact, but there are signs of life here. At $6,900, he could be a very popular GPP play on FanDuel against a shaky Raiders secondary.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

It’s not often that you look to roster RBs in a shaky offensive situation, but this Cardinals’ run defense is making it awfully hard to not consider Chris Carson this week. Through three weeks, they’ve allowed an average of 32.6 fantasy points per game to running backs with 5 total rushing touchdowns and 1 more receiving TD to RBs. That’s 2 TDs per game from the RB position for those of you who struggle with math. To piggyback off of that, the fact that Carson rushed 32 times (!!) last week strengthens his case. In a game where the game script should favor another run-heavy attack for the Seahawks and with such a shaky run defense, Carson clocks in as a sneaky RB2 at $6,400 on FanDuel.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants

While the Saints secondary was one that we avoided picking on in the 2017 season, they’re proving to be the opposite this season, particularly in the slot. Below are the stat lines of the starting slot WR that played against them in each of the first 3 weeks of the season:

Week 1: DeSean Jackson: 5 catches, 146 yards, 2 TDs 

Week 2: Jarvis Landry: 5 catches, 69 yards

Week 3: Calvin Ridley: 7 receptions, 146 yards, 3 TDs

Torched would be an understatement. With Evan Engram likely out this week, slot WR Sterling Shepard has a real shot to top his 6/80/1 line from last week with more targets to go around and is priced very reasonably across the industry (FD: $6,200 / DK: $4,900)

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers

With Jimmy G heartbreakingly done for the season with a torn ACL, we will see CJ Beathard step into the interim starter’s role at QB. While this doesn’t necessarily bode well for the offense as a whole, there are some pieces set to benefit; particularly Matt Breida.

Per Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus, Beathard is a huge fan of dumping off to the RB, as shown below:

While his health is in question for this week, should he suit up, his floor seems to be quite a bit higher than it was last week.

 NFL DFS – Primetime

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Antonio Brown is the unquestioned best receiver in the NFL, let alone on the Steelers roster, but JuJu Smith-Schuster has quietly been a reliable WR1 over his last 16 games, per Evan Silva of Rotoworld:

He’s racked up 38 targets through 3 weeks (12.7 per game) and had his lowest amount of receiving yards in week 3…116. With no Jimmy Smith, the Ravens best corner remaining, Marlon Humphrey, could be shadowing AB. This would leave Brandon Carr on JuJu, a CB who hasn’t posted a PFF grade of over 67.7 since 2011.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

What else is left to say about this Chiefs offense? They continue to steamroll through teams topping the 30-point mark with ease every week, often in the first half. They draw a tough match-up against a respectable Broncos defense, but the way to attack the Broncos D is with the TE (allowing 8th most fantasy points per game to TE). Luckily for KC, they have arguably the best TE in the league in Travis Kelce. Kelce has drawn 20 targets over his last two weeks, establishing himself as Maholmes’ favorite option.

Best of luck in your NFL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest fantasy football news and analysis!