College Football Results Against The Spread Week 4 2018
We had the biggest upset of the year and one of the biggest in history. I know I missed that. QB changes mid-game cost me that one plus at least one more. Overall, I think I had a good week though. I did not in the ESPN college pick em pool though.
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I had my second straight week of 34 points in pick em. Last week it was excusable with ten points being wiped off the board. This week….not so much. My horrible week dropped me to 11th in the Fantasy CPR reader’s league.
Here we will recap my picks against the spread. The winner against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow. Let’s get to it!
Let’s kick this off with the Thursday and Friday games!
Tulsa at Temple(-6.5): HIT! Justin Hobbs went wild on the Temple secondary, but Tulsa couldn’t stop the run. It was the defensive score that really made the difference for Temple though.
Florida Atlantic at Central Florida(-13.5): HIT! The Knights just plug and play with coaches. Of course, with a talent like McKenzie Milton at quarterback, it’s easy for the coach to look good.
Penn State(-27.5) at Illinois: MISS! It would have been nice had Illinois showed up for the fourth quarter. There were outscored 35-0 in the final period after keeping close for the whole game up to that point.
Washington State at USC(-3.5): HIT! Well, I’m not allowed to complain about halves for a while. I am allowed to complain about Washington State’s defense down the stretch. USC made great adjustments on both sides of the ball, but if the Cougars are ever going to be a factor in the Pac 12 under Leach, they can’t keep letting these get away. We did see USC grow up right before our eyes on a Friday night.
Georgia(-14.5) at Missouri: MISS! The Georgia offense slowed to a crawl in the second half. They did just enough to win, but not to cover. This was a better showing than I was expecting from the Missouri defense.
Notre Dame(-7.5) at Wake Forest: HIT! The move to Ian Book could be just what the Irish need to get that offense rolling. It certainly worked against Wake. The sheer lack of turnovers by the offense was a huge step forward.
Nebraska at Michigan(-18.5): MISS! I don’t want to say that Nebraska gave up, but they were certainly overmatched, especially on both lines. When you have a guy on 1.5 legs that can’t be protected, I would say that Nebraska was very lucky to get out of this game with two healthy quarterbacks. They both took a pounding. In that respect, it’s a win.
Boston College(-6.5) at Purdue: MISS! This was a great performance by a Purdue defense that just got destroyed by Missouri. Oh, and if David Blough goes back into a timeshare with Sindelar, the coach should be fired. That’s two really good games for Blough with Sindelar sidelined.
Kent State at Mississippi(-28.5): MISS! It took two weather delays for Ole Miss to show up on offense. Better late than never for the Rebs, but not for them to cover this.
Buffalo(-5.5) at Rutgers: HIT! This was too easy. Rutgers is not only the worst power five team, but they are one of the five worst teams in the nation right now.
Minnesota at Maryland(-3.5): MISS! The poor showing from the Minnesota offense wasn’t all that surprising with Smith out. The big surprise was the defense getting gouged by big play after big play. This Maryland offense is going to throw a wrench into the Big Ten(14) at some point.
Akron at Iowa State(-19.5): HIT! This was a strong showing by the Zips against a fundamentally sound team. The Zips could make some noise in the MAC this year.
Ohio at Cincinnati(-9.5): HIT! Forget covering, the Bearcats were lucky to get out of there with a win. The Bobcats dominated the first half, but that vaunted Bearcat D showed up after halftime.
Nevada at Toledo(-10.5): HIT! 107 combined points? The Big 12(10) invites are in the mail! They would fit right in. This was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.
Navy(-6.5) at SMU: MISS! Speaking of entertainment, if you didn’t like this game, you need to re-evaluate what makes you love college football. SMU was down one after scoring in their overtime possession. Instead of playing for a tie, SMU lined up with a funky formation (that was legal….they checked) and got the two point conversion to beat Navy for the first time since 1998 and their first home win against the Middies since 1966.
Pittsburgh(-3.5) at North Carolina: MISS! By the time the Pitt defense figured out what the Tarheels were doing to them, it was too late. And it still reaffirms my long held belief that Pitt can’t pass to win.
Louisville at Virginia(-4.5): HIT! I shouldn’t have been so timid about this one. That Louisville offense is physically painful to watch. It hurts my eyes almost as much as the Smurf Turf in Potatoland.
Western Michigan(-7.5) at Georgia State: HIT! There’s Jamauri Bogan! It feels like I haven’t seen him in weeks!
Miami(OH)(-7.5) at Bowling Green: HIT! Good thing I don’t pick the over/under. I would have missed this one.
Western Kentucky at Ball State(-2.5): MISS! This was an entertaining game as expected. Ball State’s defense just couldn’t hold the lead.
Texas A&M at Alabama(-26.5): HIT! It’s a good thing Bama let up. A&M wasn’t in this game for more than about 20 minutes.
Clemson(-15.5) at Georgia Tech: HIT! Can Trevor Lawrence take Clemson to the promised land? They better hope so because I think we’ve seen the last of Bryant in a Clemson uniform.
Tulane at Ohio State(-36.5) HIT! I see one major difference in Ohio State this year: they are beating the teams that they should beat. On top of that, they aren’t leaving it to chance either. The Buckeyes are covering these massive spreads, which is something we don’t normally see.
Kansas State at West Virginia(-16.5): HIT! It says something about how bad your offense is if you can only score six points on a Big 12(10) defense.
Virginia Tech(-27.5) at Old Dominion: MISS! Would I have taken the Monarchs if I had known they were going to switch quarterbacks? Honestly, probably not, but I wouldn’t have bet as high. This is the biggest upset in the 14 year history of ESPN’s FPI rankings. It ranks up there with Stanford beating USC in 2007 at a 40 point dog. What made is all the more impressive is that the Monarchs scored 28 fourth quarter points on a stout defense. Welcome to the spotlight, Old Dominion. How long will they stick around?
Florida International at Miami(FL)(-26.5): HIT! I want to personally thank the Panthers for showing up in the fourth quarter against Miami’s second string. They didn’t even have positive yards on offense in the first quarter against Miami’s first string defense.
Charlotte at Massachusetts(-7.5): MISS! I’m not even going to say I knew better because I really had no freaking idea. However, I do usually take the home teams in this situation, so, way to go Mike….
Northern Illinois at Florida State(-10.5): MISS! While this was an important win for the Seminoles, they still didn’t look particularly good. Cam Akers averaged less than three yards per carry! They wont have a chance in the ACC unless the line play improves immediately.
Kansas at Baylor(-7.5): MISS! This is what happens when you pick with your heart and not your head.
Arizona(-6.5) at Oregon State: HIT! Okay, so it wasn’t Khalil Tate. It was a monster game from J.J. Taylor that won this for the Wildcats.
South Carolina(-2.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS! I thought the days of Vandy getting blown off their own field were over. I guess not….
Connecticut at Syracuse(-28.5): HIT! UConn is still terrible. All remains right in the college football world. I was worried after Old Dominion’s fourth quarter rout of the Hokies.
TCU(-2.5) at Texas: MISS! Someone woke up the Texas football team. Unfortunately for them, the Longhorns still have two losses since they ignored the first two weeks.
North Texas(-12.5) at Liberty: HIT! The Mean Green aren’t some mid major team getting lucky. They really are this good. My request for Bowl Season is to see North Texas take on TCU in the Cotton Bowl. See who’s the king of the Metroplex. It may not be who most of you think.
Louisiana Tech at LSU(-20.5): MISS! Apparently the LSU offense lost interest in the second half.
MISS! Has Mark Stoops finally got Kentucky to the point where they can compete? They are 4-0 for the first time in ten years and 2-0 in the SEC for the first time since 1977. Dare to believe, Kentucky fans. Benny Snell is a special back.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State(-13.5): HIT! I didn’t see Tech winning outright, so I definitely didn’t see them busting a spread by 48 points on the road. This was an impressive performance by the Red Raiders.
Rice at Southern Mississippi(-14.5): MISS! I should have just flipped a coin…..
Texas State at UTSA(-6.5): MISS! This had chaos, defensive touchdowns, and rowdy fans. Everything you expect in a rivalry game. I’m not even upset I missed this. This was a fun one to watch!
UNLV at Arkansas State(-7.5): MISS! I knew that half was trouble….
Coastal Carolina at Louisiana(-2.5): MISS! Well, I guess I have my answer. The Cajuns really are that bad.
Troy(-4.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: HIT! This was closer than I thought it would be. Caleb Evans did everything he could for the Warhawks, but he didn’t have any help at all.
North Carolina State(-5.5) at Marshall: HIT! How far can Ryan Finley take this team? Maybe farther than we think in the ACC.
Florida(-4.5) at Tennessee: HIT! Like I said, the Florida offense looks great against inferior opponents. If there ever was a question about Tennessee, there should be no doubt now.
Arkansas at Auburn(-29.5): HIT! Thanks for the garbage TD, fellas! The Auburn defense dominated this game. The offense still leaves something to be desired.
Michigan State(-5.5) at Indiana: MISS! So much for believing in the Hoosiers.
New Mexico State(-3.5) at UTEP: MISS! I was right about one thing. This was an ugly game.
Army at Oklahoma(-31.5): HIT! I knew this was high, but I didn’t expect the game to be this close. This was a great performance by Army. They are going to shock at least one team this year. You may wonder how Oklahoma got held to 28 points. Well, Army had the ball for 45 minutes! That’s a full three quarters! Oklahoma ran just 38 plays, which was the lowest in a game since 1960 for the Sooners.
Stanford(-2.5) at Oregon: HIT! I almost felt bad accepting my winnings from this because Oregon had this game won. This was a colossal meltdown by the Ducks, right up there with the Mets blowing the N.L. East in 2007. It just didn’t take quite as long.
East Carolina at South Florida(-20.5): HIT! I knew this was too many. South Florida was pretty lucky to escape this one.
South Alabama at Memphis(-31.5): HIT! The good ol’ Memphis defense. You can count on them to make an average offense look good.
Wisconsin(-3.5) at Iowa: HIT! This was a good way for the Badgers to rebound. The defense was as advertised, and Taylor cracked the century mark again.
Arizona State at Washington(-17.5): MISS! I knew better. I should have known this line was too high.
Air Force at Utah State(-10.5): MISS! Yeah, I’m going to complain about this half, or more directly, about that two point conversion in the fourth from Air Force. Utah State dominated the third quarter and should have had this covered.
Eastern Michigan at San Diego State(-11.5): MISS! I do think that the Aztecs would have covered this if Washington hadn’t left with an injury. The dropoff at RB is a little more severe than from Penny to Washington last year.
I was back above .500 this week with a 29-26 week. A poor slate of evening games hurt since I was ten games above going into the night.However, I did hit my lock to go to 3-1 in those picks on the season. I also think I did well with the points, and that’s what really matters. It’s how much you bet where that determines how you do.
This week’s totals follow the number. The season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-5 (18-19) = -1
2. 13-10 (41-41) = 0
3. 8-8 (27-24) = 9
4. 3-3 (11-10) = 4
5. 2-0 (4-4) = 0
I gained a solid 14 points this week due to hitting both my five point picks. That puts me at 12 points on the season and 34 points in the three years and a month that I’ve been making the point bets. My largest real life bets last weekend were on Buffalo and TCU. I ended up a little behind because of the TCU bet, but I still have enough to make this weekend interesting.
Make sure to come back for this week’s picks against the spread, our ESPN College Pick Em Picks, and our DFS picks for the NFL, MLB, PGA tour, and of course, college football! We have all of your needs covered!