DraftKings Main MLB Picks September 27: Ride the hot hand
There are six games in the main DraftKings tournament on the last getaway day of the regular season. Assuming that no teams change starters, we have one trust ace and three more pitchers priced between 9 and 10k. The middle tier is a wreck once again, and we have rookies and/or openers littering the landscape. Wade with me into this interesting player pool.
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Rain is going to be an issue in Baltimore. They are going to do everything they can to get this one in, but it could be a long wait and they could be dodging several delays. There is a chance of rain in the later innings in New York, but the game should finish at some point. It’s much safer than Baltimore.
The only wind is a brisk 14 mph wind out to right in Minneapolis. I say brisk because it is going to be in the mid to low 50’s come game time.
This time of year we really have to be careful with player sitting. If you can’t check before game locks, it might be best to just avoid these. With the expanded rosters, players are sitting more frequently.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
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Gerrit Cole ($12,800): In a vacuum, Cole is far and away the best pitcher going tonight. However, if the weather is a bother like it looks like it will be, SP is far from safe. With any luck, the Astros will hold out Cole entirely with their postseason berth secure. Just keep an eye on this one. If another hurler toes the rubber for the Astros, whoever it is automatically becomes a great value target against this weak and strikeout prone Orioles lineup.
Trevor Williams ($9,300): His recent run of dominance continues. Williams isn’t piling up the strikeouts like Marquez, but he has a brilliant 1.19 ERA over his last ten starts. On top of that, Williams has allowed just two runs in 13 innings to the Cubs this year, picking up 40.6 DraftKings points against them in two starts. With some uncertainty surrounding Cole, I think I prefer to go with the hot hand here.
Julio Teheran ($8,500): The Mets are only hitting .196 against Teheran in 209 at bats, but they do have nine homers and 21 runs. However, considering the Mets were shut down by Newcomb last night, there is ample enough upside to use Teheran here. Teheran has 80.4 DraftKings points in four starts against the Mets this year. I’m comfortable with a 20 spot for this price. Teheran is one of the safer options on the board tonight, and he has decent enough upside for cash game consideration.
Jason Vargas ($5,400): Vargas has at least 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five starts. The only outlier was against the Dodgers out west. There is decent enough upside here against an Atlanta team that already has clinched their playoff spot. I can make a case for Vargas if you want some expensive bats, but the Coors stack is in the afternoon. There isn’t a whole lot to spend on unless the Astros start their regular lineup, which seems unlikely.
Stephen Gonsalves ($5,100): Gonsalves was brilliant last week against this same Tigers team when the Twins used the opener strategy. Expect that to happen again. Gonsalves picked up 24.3 DraftKings points in six innings of dominating relief against Detroit, allowing only one hit. This will likely be the last appearance for the rookie this year, and it promises to be a good one. Gonsalves can help us cash again!
Houston Astros vs. David Hess:
Honestly, I would stack the Astros against any pitcher that the Orioles could come up with. Jim Palmer is way past his prime, but he still might be better than anyone in the Orioles rotation right now. Does anyone know if Spaceman Lee is still pitching in Alaska? Maybe he is available for a one-off in Camden Yards. I doubt the Astros risk a lot of their starters if the field is sloppy, but all that means is that even more value is open. Stack 1-5 of this offense once the lineups are released. It doesn’t even matter who the names are.
Kansas City Royals vs. Josh Tomlin:
Tomlin has been terrible as a starter and reliever, so throwing a few Royals at him isn’t the worst idea. The Royals are hitting .299 with three homers and 18 RBI in 184 at bats. Perez, Jorge Bonifacio, and Merrifield have the homers. Alcides Escobar is 10-50 with four RBI. Alex Gordon has seven runs and three RBI. There are plenty of ways to go cheap here if you need to, but build around Mondesi and Merrifield.
Cleveland Indians vs. Glenn Sparkman:
The Indians blew up for ten runs last night. Don’t be shocked if they do it again. Everyone in the lineup is in play against the Royals. Using Vargas with a Cleveland stack looks like a pretty good idea right now if weather cooperates. Alonso, Edwin, Jose Ramirez, and Lindor are the preferred options, so use as many of them as are in the Cleveland lineup. After that pick and choose with values slotted 1-6 in the batting order.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jon Lester:
Brian is going to tell you to stack against Lester. I am going to tell you that there is no way Lester is worth nearly five figures, and I am also going to say that Brian’s idea is far from a bad one. The Pirates are hitting .257 with six homers and 24 runs against Lester in 183 at bats. Those are stack worthy numbers. If you don’t want to go a full blown stack, at least use Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli is 10-36(.278) with two homers and 10 RBI against Lester. Elias Diaz, Jordy Mercer, Josh Bell, and Josh Harrison have taken him deep as well. I also like Pablo Reyes and the suddenly hot Jose Osuna here as well.
Minnesota Twins vs. Francisco Liriano:
His former team hasn’t been so kind to Liriano. The Twins are hitting .299 with three homers and 18 runs in just 67 at bats. Polanco, Sano, and Tyler Austin have the homers. Mauer has three RBI. Logan Forsythe is a ridiculous 7-12(.583) with three runs and two RBI. Pretty much any righty is in play, and Mauer hits lefties well enough to consider.
Texas Rangers vs. Andrew Heaney:
If Ronald Acuna is in the lineup, play him! He is 4-5 with a homer and three runs against Jason Vargas. Markakis has smacked two homers off of Vargas as well.
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Marco Gonzales looks really expensive for no apparent reason. His numbers are home are average, but are nothing to really get excited about. The same is true for his numbers against Texas. There are better options out there both above and below Gonzales, so the only reason to use him is to be different, and you may wind up disappointed. Joey Gallo has both of the Texas homers off of Gonzales. He also have five of the nine RBI. A cheap Elvis Andrus is very tempting as well.
Kyle Schwarber has smacked two homers against Trevor Williams in just 12 at bats. Rizzo is 4-12 with a homer off of him as well. How brave do you feel against such a hot pitcher though?
I know….cheap Mets is an oxymoron since almost all of them are cheap right now. Jose Lobaton and Jay Bruce have each homered twice against Teheran. Todd Frazier and Austin Jackson are worth a look as well.
I’m not real crazy about any Tigers, but JaCoby Jones will lead off of against lefty Gabriel Moya. Probably two of his four at bats will be against someone other than Gonsalves. There is decent potential here with low ownership likely.
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