Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 4

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate prediction, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story. Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

*Funnel Defense refers to a noticeable difference in DVOA between pass defense and rush defense.

Pass Funnel Defenses:

NO (Pass: 32nd, Run 1st), SF (Pass: 29th, Run: 8th), HOU (Pass: 28th, Run: 3rd), DEN (Pass: 19th, Run: 5th)

New Orleans Saints Defense (Ranked 32nd against the pass and 1st against the run)

The Giants will play host to the visiting New Orleans Saints in one of the rare 4:25 PM (EST) east coast games. This game highlights two of the bigger story lines in the NFL so far this season. The first being the massive regression of the Saints defense from their impressive performance last year. The second being the Giants offensive line struggles. These two stories will converge, to what should be the determining factor for the outcome of this game, and I tend to believe that the Giants could win this matchup.

More from FanSided

The Saints pass rush has been non-existent to start the year. Through three weeks they rank 20th in adjusted sack rate, and have only accumulated six sacks, two under the league average (8). This lack of pressure has exposed the secondary and is an indicator of their success last year being derived from an elite pass rush. So while the Giants have one of the worst offensive lines in football, they should still be able to move the ball through the air on Sunday. It also important to note that the Saints will be without slot corner Patrick Robinson. Robinson will undergo ankle surgery and likely miss the rest of the season. Look for Sterling Shepard and the Giant’s offense to take advantage, as they’ll now have a favorable matchup against backup, P.J. Williams.

Run Funnel Defenses:

WAS (Pass: 8th, Run: 31st), NYJ (Pass: 1st, Run 19th), SEA (Pass: 4th, Run: 21st), LARM (Pass: 2nd, Run: 26th),

Seattle Seahawks Defense (Ranked 4th against the pass and 21st against the run)

The 0 – 3 Arizona Cardinals will host the Seahawks on Sunday, after Seattle earned their first win of the season last week. While the Arizona offense has done nothing to instill confidence, there are a few factors in their favor this week. First, the spot. Arizona has yet to earn a win, and they’ll now have rookie Josh Rosen starting under center. I would expect an all out effort from Arizona, as they not only try to save face an earn a win, but support their future quarterback. In addition, this could be a “let down” spot for Seattle, as they hit the road after a home win, against “America’s team” last Sunday.

While Mike McCoy‘s usage, or lack thereof, with DJ has been mind-boggling, this would be the spot to see positive regression. Seattle has actually favored well against the pass, ranking 4th, whereas they’ve been beaten worse on the ground, ranking 21st. I would have to assume that they will want to lean on the running game, as their rookie quarterback will be making his first start. That being said, just because that is the logical theory, doesn’t mean it will come to fruition, especially with this coaching staff. David Johnson is will be an interesting low owned GPP play given his recent struggles, but one worth noting given the matchup. Note, this line opened at -4, and is now at -3, and the total has also risen. It will be important to see if this line moves off of the key number of 3, come Sunday.

Overall Inefficient Defenses:

KC (32nd), OAK (31st), ATL (30th), TB (29th), NO (28th)

Next. Week 4 NFL Game by Game Breakdowns. dark

Best of luck in your Fantasy Football and NFL DFS contests this week and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest news and analysis!