MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Thursday, Sept. 27th Evening Slates
Welcome to a Thursday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.
Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
- This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Thursday’s slates!
MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Thursday, Sept. 27th Bargain Pitcher
Marco Gonzales, SEA vs. TEX
Gonzales shapes up as the safest value pitching option on the short slate, as he has a nice combination of matchup and price. The young lefty has run into some bumps in the road in the second half of the season, but he’s started to get back on track over the last three starts (2.25 ERA, .193 BAA and .233 wOBA allowed across 16 innings).
The Rangers shape up as a good target for him, as they’ve generated a .280 wOBA, -4.4 wRAA, 73 wRC+ and 21.8 percent strikeout rate versus southpaws on the road over the last month of play. Gonzales also owns a 2-1 record and 3.57 ERA across three starts versus the Rangers this season, and he’s allowed just four home runs over 74.1 home frames this season while also posting an impressive 71:15 K:BB.
Before his recent aforementioned slump, Gonzales had rattled off five straight quality starts at one point. And even when he’s struggled, Gonzales hasn’t truly been blown out of the water — he’s worked less than five innings only twice over 28 starts, certainly another appealing aspect with respect to his fantasy upside. Finally, the fact his teammates have a plum matchup against a struggling pitcher in Ariel Jurado only serves to up Gonzales’ chances of securing a win bonus .
MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Thursday, Sept. 27th Quick Hits
- The Orioles’ David Hess takes the hill Thursday, putting bargain Astros from both sides of the plate in play. Hess has given up a .352 wOBA to lefty bats and a .344 figure to right-handed hitters at Camden Yards, so consider the likes of Marwin Gonzalez, Tyler White, Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado and Josh Reddick in play, along with any other cheap Houston bats.
It’s never a bad idea to roll out some lefty hitters against Braves starter
, considering he’s allowed a .326 wOBA (including 11 homers), a 5.94 xFIP and a 38.9 percent hard contact rate to that handedness. The likes of
are all in play for the Mets as a result.
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- On the other side of the matchup, the getting could be good for the Braves against Jason Vargas, although it’s worth noting the veteran lefty has been much better in six of his last seven outings. However, given Vargas’ considerable trouble with right-handed hitters (.376 wOBA allowed), it’s worth rolling the dice on the likes of Charlie Culberson, Kurt Suzuki and the switch-hitting Johan Camargo in tournaments.
- Any time the Cubs’ Jon Lester takes the hill at Wrigley, it’s never a bad idea to roll out some cheap same-handed hitters in tournaments. Lester has allowed a .313 average and whopping .441 wOBA to lefty bats at home, so Adam Frazier and Corey Dickerson particularly stand out on the Pirates. Additionally, worth noting that Francisco Cervelli has enjoyed some success against Lester over his career (two homers, 10 RBI).
- The Pirates’ Trevor Williams has been very effective overall, but worth noting Ian Happ has enjoyed success against him in the past (.357 average over 14 plate appearances) and owns a .518 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin– Thursday, Sept. 27th Quick Hits (cont.)
- Given the Tigers’ Francisco Liriano‘s susceptibility to right-handed hitters (.358 wOBA, including 17 homers allowed), all right-handed and switch-hitting cheap Twins are in play Thursday. That includes the likes of Jorge Polanco. Logan Forsythe, Robbie Grossman, Tyler Austin, Willians Astudillo and Ehire Adrianza.
Meanwhile, the Twins will trot out lefty
, who’s allowed a .327 wOBA, including five homers, to the 95 righty hitters he’s faced. Righty Tigers bats that hit lefties well such as the switch-hitting
, Nicholas Castellanos,
are all worthy of consideration.
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- With the Royals’ Glenn Sparkman struggling with hitters from both sides of the plate, I’d consider deploying any affordable Indians bats. That includes the likes of Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Yonder Alonso, Yan Gomes, Yandy Diaz and Greg Allen.
- On the other side, the Royals’ Salvador Perez owns a .500 average, including nine extra-base hits, against the Indians’ Josh Tomlin over 40 career plate appearances. Jorge Bonifacio has had his own measure of success over a much smaller sample (.429 average over seven plate appearances). Additionally, with Tomlin getting hit hard by both sides of the plate, I consider all affordable Royals bats in play, including Ryan O’Hearn, Alex Gordon, Hunter Dozier and Brian Goodwin. Special emphasis on the lefty bats, as Tomlin has allowed a .404 average and .495 wOBA to that handedness on the road.
- The Rangers’ Ariel Jurado has had a rough time on the road, especially against left-handed hitters (.463 wOBA and 39.5 percent hard contact rate allowed). However, he’s also allowed a .357 wOBA to righty bats away from Globe Life Park, so consider all cheap Mariners (Dee Gordon, Denard Span, Kyle Seager, Ben Gamel and Ryon Healy included) in play Thursday.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!