4. Bet on the Texans’ misery to continue
Andrew Luck hasn’t thrown the ball down the field much this season, but this is a real opportunity for him to change all that. The Texans have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. That doesn’t match up very well against Luck and the Colts’ passing game.
It’s a simple formula for Indianapolis in this one. If they can protect Luck, he’ll pick the Texans’ defense apart. J.J. Watt is enjoying a career resurgence in 2018, but Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus are still missing in action. Until they show back up, this defense will continue to struggle.
The one danger here is that Deshaun Watson does have the talent to light up a pretty average Colts’ defense as well. Unfortunately, the Texans also feature one of the worst offensive lines in football. Watson might put up yards, but he’s going to take another pounding this week. Houston will make some big plays, but they won’t make enough of them.
The best news here is that the Colts are only giving up 1.5 points at home against the Texans. That’s about two points away from where we think the line should be. Don’t get cute with teasing anything here, but take the Colts to cover the small spread. Frank Reich’s team should be good for a win by at least a field goal.