DraftKings Early CFB picks September 29: Stack the WVU offense
DraftKings selected another ten games for the early slate on Saturday. There are some explosive offenses like West Virginia, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Oklahoma State. We have no FCS schools, but Louisiana and Tennessee are close. Where should we attack?
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A poor performance from AJ Dillon torpedoed my early lineup, as did value hunting in the Nebraska-Michigan game. If you had Ian Book or Rondale Moore, you cashed. The Sills-Grier combo was huge last week, and could be again.
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Will Grier ($10,900): For as well as Texas Tech has played with Bowman at quarterback, it just means that they can now keep up with the points their defense gives up. Grier has at least four touchdowns and at least 330 yards in all three games this season. Of course, that has produced three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points. If you can cram Grier into your lineup, so it. He could have a monster against Texas Tech.
McKenzie Milton ($10,500): Milton is the offense for UCF right now. He has even run for 147 yards and three touchdowns in their three games. Pitt’s defense hasn’t been horrible, but I wouldn’t say they have been all that good either. That said, when giving this much for a QB, I want a piece of that TT-WVU shootout. The back and forth in that one is going to be impressive.
Alan Bowman ($10,000): The West Virginia defense might be the best one that Tech has faced so far, and definitely the best one Bowman has faced since he didn’t start against Ole Miss. Still, Bowman has 1,002 passing yards over the last two games with seven touchdown passes. West Virginia may slow him down, but stopping him just isn’t going to happen.
Kellen Mond ($9,200): Mond turned in a solid performance against Alabama last week, so he should just destroy an Arkansas team that is probably the worst in the SEC. Making Mond worth the money are his four rushing touchdowns in four games, including games against Alabama and Clemson. Mond hasn’t been under 20 DraftKings points in a game yet, and could get close to 40 depending on how long he is in the game against the Piggies. This is going to get ugly, and probably early.
Sam Ehlinger ($8,100): We have seen quite a change from Ehlinger in the three weeks since the loss to Maryland. Ehlinger has not turned the ball over in the last two games, and has not thrown an interception in the last three. That was an issue against Maryland and most of last year. Ehlinger’s recent run of taking care of the ball has put his DraftKings point totals at 25 or more over the last three games. He isn’t going to carry Texas, but it also appears that Ehlinger isn’t going to lose it for them either.
David Blough ($7,600): Since taking over as the starter, Blough has led this offense to 67 points in two games. I don’t see Purdue having to throw a whole lot to keep up with Nebraska, especially since the Nebraska run defense has been the awful part. Still, Blough could put up some pretty good numbers. After all, get Moore the ball and your yardage totals will explode without you having to do a whole lot.
Kenny Pickett ($6,600): Wait….isn’t Pitt a run first team? Yes they are, but as they showed last week, they will throw if they have to. They are going to have to do something to try and keep up with this UCF offense, which means another healthy workload for Pickett. Pitt lacks playmaking receivers, but they do have a few guys that can catch the ball. More on that later.
Eric Dungey ($6,300): Dungey was the guy that led the Syracuse upset of Clemson last year. Don’t expect that to happen on the road this year, but that doesn’t mean that Dungey wont still have a good game. If you take out the game against Florida State in which Dungey had to leave early, what you see is 121.62 DraftKings points in three games. Of course, Clemson is easily the best competition Dungey has faced so far, but Mond did pretty well against Clemson for the price. I expect a similarly strong game from Dungey.
Charlie Brewer ($5,900): Brewer seems to have finally pulled away with the starting job for Baylor, so there is great potential here against an Oklahoma defense that is improved, but is still not a great unit. Brewer is priced like he is playing an elite defense, which is not the case. This is probably going to be a high scoring game, so I really like Brewer at S-Flex for this price.
Justice Hill ($9,100): With Oklahoma State playing catch up almost all last week, Hill only had 11 carries. He still ran for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Kansas does not have a great run defense. Even a Baylor team that doesn’t really run kept it on the ground 15 times against Kansas. I would guess that Hill is going to see a lot of carries for a lot of yards. He should be well worth the price here.
Trayveon Williams ($8,100): Williams found nothing against Alabama last week. He gets a reprieve here against an Arkansas team that has been gouged, though not necessarily on the ground. Still, A&M is going to establish the run here and they hope not with Mond. I expect to see a heavy dose of Williams, but he may get an early shower with the rest of the first team against an awful Arkansas team.
Travis Etienne ($7,400): Without Bryant in the backfield, we could see more carries heading Etienne’s way. Lawrence is more pocket passer than runner, so we should see an increase in the usage of Etienne. This could be the place to cash in on it while his price is still manageable. Etienne has back to back games of more than 100 rushing yards and more than one touchdown. That should continue against Syracuse.
Trey Sermon ($7,200): Sermon had his first career 100 yard game against Army last week. What is so impressive about that is that Sermon did it in just one quarter of playing time since Army had the ball for 45 minutes. What makes the Oklahoma offense explosive is being able to run and pass at will. They should be able to against Baylor. Sermon could be in line for another nice game here.
Pooka Williams ($6,100): Williams is worth considering if only because he is the only Kansas player with the ability to get to the end zone on any play. The Cowboys have a solid run D, but we saw Pooka have yet another 70+ yard play last week against Baylor. That makes Williams dependent on the big play, but for this price, he is worth a shot.
D.J. Knox ($5,200): Nebraska has been awful trying to stop the run this year. That should mean a heavy dose of Knox. He didn’t do well running the ball last week, but Boston College does have a good run defense. Purdue will likely try to build a lead and shorten the game like they did last week, and they should be able to do just that. I expect a significant upgrade from Knox’s 2.5 yards per carry last week though.
Keaontay Ingram ($4,700): Tre Watson is still getting the bulk of the carries, but Ingram is electric. K-State has problems with electricity. TCU is was able to keep Ingram out of the end zone, but no one else has. Certainly the upside is capped with Watson in the picture, but Ingram is going to see meaningful touches. Texas isn’t going to treat him like a museum piece, nor can they afford to.
Rakeem Boyd ($3,400): With Devwah Whaley most likely out, Boyd will be the lead back. Granted, A&M has a solid front, but a starter for this price without a notable backup has extreme upside, even against a good defense. It seems safe to lock and load with Boyd, though any Arkansas player has limited upside here.
David Sills V ($8,800): Something can be said for being the favorite receiving target of a Heisman candidate. Lots of balls come the way of Sills, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon. Sills is essentially the goal line back in the West Virginia offense. All three of his scores last week came on one yard catches. His great ability in tight spaces makes Sills elite on any given week.
Antoine Wesley ($8,300): While Bowman may not be a Heisman candidate, there is still something to be said for being the favorite target of a guy that throws 50 times a game. Wesley’s ceiling is as high or higher than anyone on the slate, but Texas Tech usually spreads the ball around more. Sills getting practically every red zone target gives him a much better floor.
Rondale Moore ($8,200): You can’t really ignore Moore anymore. He is the focal point of the Purdue offense. Honestly, I want a guy with his playmaking ability in my lineup against a struggling defense like Nebraska. That said, I’m not sure that Purdue gets him the ball enough to be priced in this tier. Are the Boilermakers really going to throw that much this week?
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Hollywood Brown ($7,700)/Cee Dee Lamb (6,800): Brown was held without a catch last week. Part of that was due to Army dominating time of possession, but most of it was due to Army keying on him. Iowa State did the same thing. As both teams found out. Lamb is plenty good enough to make them pay. Until teams start covering Brown and Lamb equally, I’d rather use Lamb. However, against Baylor’s defense, both are firmly in play.
Collin Johnson ($7,600): There used to be a time when I didn’t aim to use offensive players against the Kansas State defense. That has changed this year. That defense is struggling because the offense can’t keep them off the field. Texas’ resurgence has been in large part because of Ehlinger being efficient. Johnson has been a big part of Ehlinger’s growth, and has caught 13 passes over the last two games. Johnson could be in for another strong game here.
Ja’Deion High ($6,700): With T.J. Vasher likely out, High ascends to number two on the depth chart. High hauled in eight passes last week, most of them after Vasher left. West Virginia is good enough to cover Wesley, but they likely can’t do it in man coverage. That should leave High a little more open just like it did last week. High is probably my favorite mid range target today.
Stanley Morgan ($5,900): The entire Nebraska offense was just wrecked by the Michigan D last week. That wont be the case with Purdue. We saw Missouri shred them, so I think Nebraska will have some space here. Adrian Martinez is a decent play, but I think I like Morgan more because aside from Martinez, he is the only skill player in this offense that is guaranteed looks. Most will be off of the Nebraska offense here, so I have no problem jumping on Morgan. He could have a really nice game in what may be higher scoring than people think.
Isaiah Zuber ($5,800): Zuber has been the only bright spot in the K-State offense. He has hauled in 17 passes for 277 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the last couple of weeks. A note of warning is that the Texas defense has looked good over the last two weeks. Still, Zuber is the only Wildcat that I would even consider. He could be a bargain at this price so long as the quarterback can get him the ball, whoever that may be.
Jalen Hurd ($5,600): Hurd gets touches out of the backfield and in the passing game. He was a running back at Tennessee. Baylor has proven that they want to use Hurd wherever they can to get a mismatch. They will have plenty of chances at that against a solid but unspectacular Oklahoma defense.
Taysir Mack ($4,200), Maurice Ffrench ($3,300): Before you ask, no, that’s not a type. There are actually consecutive f’s in Ffrench’s last name. It’s French. Araujo-Lopes has been a disaster this year, but both Mack and Ffrench have enjoyed success with Pitt having to throw the ball. I’m still not a huge fan of Pickett as a passer, but Mack and Ffrench are worth a look. Mack is the possession guy, and is a monster in PPR formats like DraftKings. Ffrench is a big play waiting to happen.
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