Fantasy Football Start or Sit, Week 4
It’s that time of the week to try and start to decide who’s going to be in your Fantasy Football starting letup this week and who needs to ride your bench in Week 4 start or sit!
Week 3 is all the way in the books so it’s time to fully turn the page to Week 4 in Fantasy Football! There are two teams on a bye and it’s a good time to remind everyone that you need to still be gathering depth at this point. The bye weeks aren’t far away and you’re going to need quality players to put into the lineup. Let’s see who should be in your lineup this week!
Quarterback Fantasy Football Starts
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – at Pittsburgh Steelers
It doesn’t feel any better writing Flacco up than it does reading it but he’s drawing a very good matchup. Don’t let the turnovers from Monday night sway you to thinking the Steelers defense is really any good. They’ve given up the third most points to quarterbacks and the defense as a whole has given up the fifth most passing yards. They’re also tied with the Saints for the most passing touchdowns surrendered and this trend goes back to last year when Pittsburgh lost Ryan Shazier. Baltimore walked into Heinz Field last season and hung 38 points on Pittsburgh, while Flacco passed for 269 yards and two touchdowns. His receivers included Michael Campanaro and Chris Moore in that game. The receiving corps is far better this time around and Pittsburgh can’t stop anyone through the air. If John Brown happens to be out, I would be a little less likely to start Flacco but not much.
Eli Manning, New York Giants – vs New Orleans Saints
You can roll out the grizzled old veteran in this spot because the defense for the Saints is just awful. They rank dead last in points given up to quarterbacks and they just lost corner Patrick Robinson, which isn’t going to make things better in the secondary. The passer rating against the Saints is a massive 141.7 and the next closet team is the Texans…at 119.9. Manning gets to throw to Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley in a game where the Giants are going to have to score points. It seems unlikely that New York can stop the Saints offense. Manning couldn’t ask for a better spot and if he can’t come through here, he might be off the radar the rest of the season.
Also Consider – Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns – at Oakland Raiders, Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams – vs Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback Fantasy Football Sits
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders – vs Cleveland Browns
Maybe this isn’t a bold call since Carr is buried in the quarterback scoring so far but he’s kind of having a weird season. He’s the QB26 while throwing for the sixth most yards and completing over 76 percent of his passes. The one element that is holding him back is the touchdowns, because he’s only thrown two of them. That is due to change and maybe Carr could be a buy low candidate for 2QB leagues but it’s not changing this week. The Cleveland defense has given up the second fewest points to opposing quarterbacks so far, better than teams like Jacksonville, Denver and Minnesota. The Browns might get Emmanuel Ogbah back this week too, which will help the pass rush. Their secondary is improving as their only allowing 229.0 passing yards per game and the team will be fired up after their first win in over a year. Carr is interesting but he can wait one more week to see his positive regression.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – at Chicago Bears
It’s always fun to see a player like Fitzpatrick come out of nowhere and dominate the NFL for a period of time but the clock is about to strike midnight on one of the best beards in the game. The Bears haven’t allowed over 24 points all season long and the only time a team crossed 17 points came when Aaron Rodgers was on painkillers and went full GOAT on them. The Bears lead the NFL with 14 sacks and we saw the Steelers get to Fitzpatrick on Monday night, constantly harassing him. It may come as a shock, but Pittsburgh doesn’t have a Khalil Mack on their defense. Chicago also has five interceptions and have forced seven fumbles(recovering three of them). Unlike lMonday night, the Bucs now have a legitimate option if Fitzpatrick starts throwing interceptions since Jameis Winston is back from suspension.
Also Consider – Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans – vs Philadelphia Eagles
Running Back Fantasy Football Starts
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks – at Arizona Cardinals
Brian Schottenheimer has been an offensive coordinator in nine seasons before this one. He’s been in the top half of the league in rushing attempts in five of those seasons and is now coming off a game where they fed Carson 30+ carries. Does it make sense to take the ball out of Russell Wilson‘s hands? Not really, although they made no effort to replace some of his weapons in the offseason. Rashaad Penny didn’t see the field hardly at all and the Seahawks rode Carson and the defense to a win. That seems like a formula they’ll stick with against a rookie quarterback this week and the Cardinals are dead last against running backs this year. They’ve allowed the fourth most rushing yards this season and have faced 14 more rushing attempts than any other team. Carson is in line for another big workload this week.
Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers – at Los Angeles Chargers
I feel perfectly fine starting Breida this week, especially in PPR formats. It’s unfortunate the amount of injuries the San Francisco offense has faced already but Breida and Kyle Juszcyk have inherited the passing game role, combining for 19 of a possible 87 targets so far. They’ll likely need these players in this game since the Chargers are a huge 10.5 point favorite and C.J. Beathard used Carlos Hyde for a 22 percent target share last season when he played. I know you’ve seen that stat already if you’ve read a different article but it’s worth pointing out how massive that share is. Only five backs are seeing above that number of the target share this season and they’re Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Thompson and Melvin Gordon. If the target share stays remotely the same, Breida is going to be massively valuable moving forward and take a look at Juszcyk in deeper leagues.
Also Consider – Sony Michel, New England Patriots – vs Miami Dolphins, Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions – at Dallas Cowboys, Phillip Lindsay/Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos – vs Kansas City Chiefs
Running Back Fantasy Football Sits
Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia Eagles – at Tennessee Titans
It’s great for fantasy purposes that the Eagles are getting healthy on offense and are very close to being full strength. However, even though Ajayi will be back this week, I’m not going to be starting him virtually anywhere. The Titans are the third stingiest team against fantasy running backs and they’ve been a funnel defense for quite some time. The damage against them comes through the air while they mostly shut down the running backs. I have a hard time believing that the Eagles won’t keep him in a heavy rotation with Corey Clement and potentially Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles. That’s just what Doug Pederson does. You might have to start Ajayi by default in some spots but you’re likely not going to get much unless he manages to fall into the end zone from in close.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans – vs Philadelphia Eagles
We’re not going far for another sit candidate and this one hurts. I’ve been a Derrick Henry guy for a couple seasons now but there is legitimate questions about just how good he is at the NFL level. The Titans have been feeding him these past two weeks with 18 carries in each game, but he’s yet to crack 60 yards rushing. Granted, that has come against tough opponents with shaky quarterback play but those two factors aren’t changing this week. The Eagles have allowed the fewest rushing yards in football and that should come as no surprise, as my podcast friend Adam Pfeifer points out –
As hard as it is to turn away from 15+ touches in this running back landscape, playing Henry just seems like a recipe for heartache this week. I would be making some buy low offers after this week for Henry, especially if he lays a third straight egg.
Wide Receivers Fantasy Football Starts
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers – vs San Francisco 49ers
This becomes even more of a priority start if Keenan Allen does wind up missing this game, as he didn’t practice for the second straight day on Thursday. Williams is showing his promise as a high draft pick and he’s taken over as the secondary receiver in the Chargers offense. The 49ers pass defense hasn’t been good yet at all, giving up the sixth most passing yards, eighth highest passer rating, tied for the second most touchdowns allowed and have yet to record an interception. Now they have lost Richard Sherman for the next couple of weeks and that means the Chargers passing offense should be able to have their way on Sunday. Williams already has three red zone targets and has converted two of them into touchdowns. There’s a very good chance he gets another one into the end zone this week.
Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs – at Denver Broncos
The Broncos defense might still have the reputation of being a really good defense but that hasn’t exactly been the case so far. They rank about mid-pack in points given up to receivers and the same in passing yards given up. What comes as a surprise is the defense has given up the seventh highest average per completion and the 10th highest passer rating at 102.2. Watkins is already second in total targets on the year and in the red zone, behind only Travis Kelce. The Chiefs have even kicked in three rush attempts for Watkins so far. Even on the road, I’ll take a part of the Chiefs offense in any way I can. Watkins is a solid WR3 at least with some upside above that.
Also Consider – Sterling Shepard, New York Giants – vs New Orleans Saints, Michael Crabtree, Baltimore Ravens – at Pittsburgh Steelers, Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions – at Dallas Cowboys
Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Sits
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – at Chicago Bears
This one is likely the one that could bite me the most. If we’re just judging by talent level, Godwin would never be a sit. He’s been excellent so far this season, checking in as the WR26 so far in .5 PPR formats. He’s also been a red zone target hog, leading the Bucs with six so far while nobody else has more than two. All of these stats sound great and like you should be starting him but here’s the biggest issue –
In fact, Godwin sits at a 50 percent snap share the past two weeks and is behind Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Adam Humphries on the season. I love Godwin and in honesty, I can’t figure out why he’s not on the field all that much. Yes, he had a fumble but the snaps were the same in Weeks 2 and 3. It doesn’t make sense and until Tampa starts making him a bigger part of the offense or they have a great matchup, Godwin is not near as safe as he appears.
Chris Hogan, New England Patriots – vs Miami Dolphins
This is another receiver that I wish I could explain. Hogan has been on the field constantly this year, sporting a 92 percent snap percentage on the year. The big issue is that he’s yet to see more than five targets in any game so far. Now the Patriots might add Josh Gordon to the mix, meaning the ball is going to be spread around even more. Aside from his two touchdowns, Hogan has done very little on the season. I don’t expect the early performance of the Miami defense to continue, but I also don’t trust Hogan at this point to put into my lineup.
Also Consider – Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers – vs Los Angeles Chargers, Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders – vs Cleveland Browns, Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars – vs New York Jets
Tight End Fantasy Football Start/Sit
Start – Trey Burton, Chicago Bears – vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It can be a little scary to recommend any pass catching option in the Bears offense right now because Mitchell Trubisky really hasn’t taken a step forward that many had thought he would. Even with his weaknesses, Burton sees consistent targets and is on the field over 80 percent of the time. Not only is that hard to shy away from, but Tampa is the worst team in the NFL right now against tight ends.
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Sure, some of that cam from Vance McDonald this past Monday night but the Tampa defense is one of the worst in the league. They’re tied with the Chiefs for the most passing yards given up in the NFL and they’re giving up a higher passer rating. Trubisky may or may not be a good quarterback, but even he should be able to do some damage against Tampa. Some of that will come from Trey Burton.
Sit – None
If we look at the top 15ish tight ends, I don’t think I’d be giving great advice if I flat-out said to sit them. Players like Vance McDonald of the Pittsburgh Steelers and David Njoku from the Cleveland Browns aren’t the most exciting options ever, but can you really sit them? McDonald and Jesse James split the snaps but there’s a pretty clear option in the passing game. The Steelers will also likely be in their share of shootouts with the defense they have in tow. Njoku has been second on the team in targets through three games and should be in line for potentially higher quality targets from Baker Mayfield. If you have a tight end that is around the top 15 range, odds are you’re going to start them.
Thanks for reading and the ranks for Week 4 will also be coming out on Friday! Tweet me at @bucn4life with any questions you have all weekend!