College Football picks against the spread September 29, 2018

College Football picks against the spread September 29, 2018

It’s that time of week again! Time for a huge college football Saturday with 51 more FBS vs. FBS games. A few teams are off, but at least we have fewer and fewer teams stepping out to beat on FCS opponents. Some still get teams that resemble FCS opponents though.

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There were some shakeups in the landscape this week Notre Dame and Clemson taking new signal callers. Will they fare as well as they did last week?

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! A solid week 4 put me back above .500 on the season at 101-98 overall. I also gained 14 betting points to put me back in the black this season and take my all time bank to 34 overall. Let’s add to that!

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 5!

Louisiana at (1)Alabama(-48.5)(1):

Who needs FCS teams when you can have a line like this? This is the biggest line I have ever had to pick against, and my first instinct is to say no way. However, Bama covered this in Oxford against a decent Ole Miss team. Their second string quarterback is a national champion trying to stay on the field as much as possible. Give me Bama, against my better judgment.

Syracuse at (3)Clemson(-25.5)(3):

This line has jumped 4.5 points, and it shouldn’t have. Syracuse upset Clemson last year after Kelly Bryant was hurt. Now Bryant was jettisoned out by a benching. I still think the Orange keep this relatively close. I don’t think they spring the upset this year, but I’d be shocked if they lose by three touchdowns.

(12)West Virginia(-3.5) at (25)Texas Tech(2):

Both teams play matador defense. One more than the other. The one that does is at home, and is playing said defense against a Heisman contender and some massive receivers. That’s where the Red Raiders had trouble against Ole Miss. I expect a great game, and a very fun one to watch, but Tech isn’t there yet. I’ll take the MountainGriers.

Central Michigan at (21)Michigan State(-28.5)(1):

I know Sparty has the defense to cover this, but I doubt they have the offense to. That half seals it. Give me the Chippewas.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M(-20.5) at Jerry World(4):

This is too low. Arkansas still can’t move the ball. A&M is still doing what they should be doing. In fact, they are performing above expectations. The Aggies are 4-0 against the spread this year. The Piggies are 0-3-1. This line is up 3.5, and is only going to climb higher. Get this while you can! Aggies win running away.

Indiana(-16.5) at Rutgers(4):

I’m not overly impressed by the Hoosiers this year, but they are likely better than the Buffalo team that just wiped the High Point Stadium field with the Knights last week. Expect more of the same here. Hoosiers win BIG!

Army at Buffalo(-7.5)(5):

I realize that Tyree Jackson has accounted for 15 touchdowns in four games. I also realize that Buffalo is 4-0 for the first time since 1981 when they were a division III school. However, Jackson is pretty much a one man gang. The problem with that is that the Army defense can lock down anyone. Hollywood Brown didn’t catch a pass last week thanks to this defense! I like Army straight up in pick em, and nothing has changed here. The fact that this line is over a touchdown is just gravy.

Oklahoma State(-17.5) at Kansas(3):

The good times are over for the Jayhawks until basketball season. Baylor beat them badly last week, and I’m still not convinced that Baylor is all that good. This is a good way for the Cowboys to lick their wounds. This looks low. Give me the Pokes.

Temple at Boston College(-12.5)(2):

Dillon had no room to run last week, but he should here. Temple did beat Maryland, and that is the only reason I’m lowering this bet. BC looks like the far better team, so I’ll take the Eagles.

Bowling Green at Georgia Tech(-28.5)(1):

This is a sucker bet. Neither team is that good, and I’m not taking an option team to cover a spread by more than four touchdowns. That leaves Bowling Green, but I’ll tell you right now I wouldn’t bet this with free money. While we’re at it, I’m more comfortable betting the under on 66.

Virginia at North Carolina State(-5.5)(3):

This line opened at 7.5, and I really didn’t have much of a problem with it there. Both of these teams are solid on both sides of the ball, but Ryan Finley will make the difference here. Wolfpack by a touchdown.

Massachusetts at Ohio(-13.5)(4):

What? Did no one watch what Ohio did to that vaunted Cincinnati D in the first half last week? If they start like that again, the Bobcats will win by closer to 40 than 14. Ohio by a lot!

Louisiana-Monroe(-6.5) at Georgia State(2):

The Warhawks have looked marginally less bad. I’ll take Monroe.

Kent State at Ball State(-7.5)(3):

This line hasn’t moved one bit. This is exactly where it opened. There either isn’t any action on this, or the line is right. I don’t like the half, and that’s why I’ve lowered the bet. However, I still think the Letterman’s are double digits better than Kent, especially at home.

Tennessee at (2)Georgia(-30.5)(2):

If you want to be considered elite, you need to be a really bad Tennessee team by a lot. It’s on you Georgia. I believe. Give me UGa.

Baylor at (6)Oklahoma(-23.5)(2):

This looks a little high. I’m still not all that sure that this Oklahoma defense is a lot better than last year. It is better, but how much? I still think Baylor breaks off some chunk plays here. Oklahoma wins, but not by quite this much. I’ll take Baylor.

Pittsburgh at (13)Central Florida(-13.5)(2):

Pitt is going to be out of their element trying to pass to stay in this game. They were last week, but they made it interesting anyway. I do think Pitt hangs around for a while, but I still like the Knights by two TDs at home.

(18)Texas(-8.5) at Kansas State(4):

After seeing how bad this Wildcat team looks on both sides of the ball, this line looks low. The Texas defense has done a bang up job on two overrated offenses over the last two weeks. Texas wins by at least two touchdowns, and probably more.

Cincinnati(-17.5) at Connecticut(4):

Until I see something positive from UConn, I’m going to keep making money on them getting covered. Give me the Bearcats.

Old Dominion at East Carolina(-6.5)(2):

The quarterback change has made the Monarchs a solid offense again. They may not win straight up, but they might. I’ll take Old Dominion.

Coastal Carolina at Troy(-14.5)(2):

If a team on the South Carolina coast starts 3-1 with their only loss coming to an in state SEC school, does anyone really notice? Judging by this line, no. Give me CCU to hang around. I don’t like that half.

Western Michigan(-2.5) at Miami(OH)(1):

I still think Gus Ragland is the best player on the field. The Redhawks should be able to take a close one at home.

South Alabama at Appalachian State(-25.5)(1):

Wow, that’s a lot of points. The Jags have been pretty bad on the road, but are the Mountaineers that much better than USA? Really? Probably. Give me App State.

Rice at Wake Forest(-27.5)(1):

Rice is terrible, but I’m not sure Wake can cover this with a freshman quarterback. However, with Greg Dortch to throw to, he should be able to. I’ll take Wake, I guess.

Purdue(-3.5) at Nebraska(3):

Purdue looks like the better team right now, and not by a little. Playing in Lincoln doesn’t mean what it used to. Nebraska is mostly demoralized right now, and it’s going to take a lot to come out of that. I’m not sure they do here. I’ll take Purdue.

Florida State(-6.5) at Louisville(5):

Sure Vegas, I’ll take your money. Louisville is just horrible right now. Florida State is at least taking steps, however small, in the right direction. Seminoles by 14-21 or so for my lock of the week!

Southern Mississippi at (10)Auburn(-27.5)(2):

This Auburn offense has been everything but a well oiled machine this year. They should be able to get it going here. Should being the operative word. As you can see by the bet, I don’t really trust it, but when teams are this far apart on paper, you kind of have to take the better one and hope for the best. That would be Auburn.

Nevada at Air Force(-3.5)(2):

This line opened at 7.5, and is down four points. Kind of. It is still as high as five in some, and I have actually seen one place posting this as a straight pick em. This kind of play in the line is dangerous. I like Air Force at home, but the play in the line worries me some. Ty Gangi is good, but the Nevada defense is not.

(14)Michigan(-14.5) at Northwestern(3):

I’m not crazy about that half, but after seeing what Michigan did to Nebraska last week, it’s entirely possible that another offense that can’t get out of it’s own way can be dominated by this defense. I’ll take Michigan.

Florida at (23)Mississippi State(-7.5)(2):

I don’t like the half. The Gators have played better lately, albeit against inferior competition. The Gator defense keeps this close, but I still don’t think the offense is good enough to win this outright. Give me the Bulldogs.

Utah(-1.5) at Washington State(2):

This opened with the Leaches favored by 2, and has since flipped. It is a pick em at a few places and as high as -3 for Utah in others. Another playful line, but I’m a sucker for this Cougar offense. Give me Wazzu.

Liberty at New Mexico(-7.5)(3):

No, I still don’t buy this. Can Liberty win on the road? Well, they beat Baylor last year. Liberty straight up.

Arkansas State(-3.5) at Georgia Southern(3):

Justice Hansen is still the best player on the field, and possibly the best in the Sun Belt. I’ll take the Red Wolves.

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan(-3.5)(1):

I’m more than a little surprised that the Huskies aren’t favored here anyway. I think this is a good game, and it stays close, but I still have the Huskies straight up. I’m not all that confident in it though.

Virginia Tech at (22)Duke(-4.5)(4):

Both teams are without their starting quarterbacks, but as long as the VT defense keeps allowing chunk pass plays, the Blue Devils could walk down to Durham High and pick their QB, throw him out there, and beat this team. The loss of Josh Jackson hurts the Hokies a lot more than Duke losing Daniel Jones. Give me Duke.

UTEP at UTSA(-10.5)(1):

Double digits? I know UTEP is bad, but wow! Eh…it’s a road game. I’ll take the Roadrunners.

Florida Atlantic(-2.5) at Middle Tennessee State(2):

I’ve been giving halves all season, so now it’s time to take one back. The Owls are definitely the more tested team, and Singletary is a freaking beast. I’ll take the Owls.

Boise State(-16.5) at Wyoming(3):

The Wyoming defense is solid, but that doesn’t matter if the offense can’t keep them off the field. That has been the case for much of the year. The return of Nico Evans will help, but as far as I know, he can’t pass. The Cowboys are going to get worn out eventually. Give me Boise.

Hawaii(-10.5) at San Jose State(4):

The line could be twice this, and I would still take the Warriors.

Charlotte at UAB(-16.5)(1):

Ugh….that’s a lot of points. On the other hand, Charlotte did lose to UMass. Give me the Blazers.

Iowa State at TCU(-10.5)(2):

I don’t like that half, but I do have legitimate questions as to whether the Cyclones can keep up with the athletes that TCU has. If there is one thing that we have learned about Iowa State over the last couple of years, it’s that they are fundamentally sound. I’ll take the Cyclones to keep it within single digits, but I don’t think they win outright.

(4)Ohio State(-3.5) at (9)Penn State(5):

There is a hell of a big gap between 4 and 9 this year. Ohio State by double digits.

(7)Stanford at (8)Notre Dame(-5.5)(2):

Good receivers have been an issue for the Irish this year, and Stanford has one of the best. That said, this Stanford defense isn’t what it used to be. I’ll take the Irish.

South Carolina(-1.5) at (17)Kentucky(3):

Vegas and the bettors aren’t impressed with the early success of Kentucky. In the past few years, we just sit around waiting for Kentucky to trip over themselves. This year feels different. I still like the Wildcats straight up.

Louisiana Tech at North Texas(-7.5)(4):

Way too low. Until someone proves they can at least handle Mason Fine, I’ll keep making coin on the Mean Green.

Marshall(-3.5) at Western Kentucky(2):

This line opened at -8. Has it dropped too far? I kind of think it has. After all, the Hilltoppers lost to Maine and an awful Louisville team. Give me the Herd.

(20)BYU at (11)Washington(-17.5)(2):

This looks a little high to me. Myles Gaskin and Jake Browning have yet to get going this year because of the tough schedule Washington has faced. This defense is stout as well. The Huskies win, but probably by ten or so. It wont be this much.

Mississippi at (5)LSU(-10.5)(2):

I still don’t know if the LSU offense can throw to win. The defense didn’t look all that great in the second half against Louisiana Tech, so that half makes me nervous. Then again, the Rebs got blasted by Bama at home. Give me LSU despite the half.

Oregon State at Arizona State(-21.5)(2):

I don’t like the half, but I like Oregon State even less. Give me Sparky.

(19)Oregon(-2.5) at (24)California(4):

What has Cal done to be ranked? This defense can’t handle the athletes that Oregon has. This could get ugly. Give me the Quack Attack.

USC(-2.5) at Arizona(2):

I still like Arizona straight up at home, but we can see USC getting better by the game. Add to that the fact that they had a longer week to get ready, and yeah, I’m a little nervous.

Toledo at Fresno State(-9.5)(2):

This is going to be a very entertaining game, but I do have my doubts that Fresno can win by double digits. I’ll take Toledo.

We have another big 55 game slate this week, but I ended up betting a lot more points than I did last week. This seemed easier, which probably spells disaster. I ended up with nine one pointers, 22 two pointers, 11 three pointers, nine four pointers, and four five pointers, my most of the season. I hit one last night. Let’s get the other three!