DraftKings Late CFB picks September 29: Save money on Rypien
DraftKings selected seven games for the late college football tournament this Saturday. We have the marquee matchup of Penn State and Ohio State (pro tip….it’s really not). We also have the defensive battles of Stanford and Notre Game along with Iowa State and TCU. Most of the offensive fireworks were in the early slate, but there are some here if you know where to look.
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A poor performance from AJ Dillon torpedoed my early lineup, as did value hunting in the Nebraska-Michigan game. If you had Ian Book or Rondale Moore, you cashed. The Sills-Grier combo was huge last week, and could be again.
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Brett Rypien ($8,300): Seven games isn’t an enormous slate, but it isn’t so small that we have to reach for one of the top tier quarterbacks with a bad matchup. Penn State’s trouble have been stopping the run. You couldn’t pay me to use McSorely against this defense, and I don’t trust Ian Book against Stanford in his second career start. That leaves Rypien, who will likely outscore all of them. Rypien’s low water mark of the season was 26.2 DraftKings points on the road in Stillwater. 30 looks likely here, and the price is definitely right.
Shawn Robinson ($7,700): This is a tough sell on Robinson, who hasn’t been very good over the last two weeks, both losses. Texas and Ohio State forced him into untimely turnovers, and that made the difference in the game. Iowa State’s defense has struggled more against the pass, but they can force some turnovers as well. We don’t really care whether Robinson wins or loses, but the turnovers are concerning. However, this is a situation where Robinson can pile up enough yards to offset them.
Jake Browning ($7,500): This marks yet another tough matchup for Browning, who has seen his share of them so far this year. Browning has managed to pile up yardage in a couple of these, but last week was the first time that Browning was able to throw more than two touchdown passes. There is risk involved against BYU, but I would rather take a chance on a guy priced at $7,500 than one priced in five figures or close to it.
K.J. Costello ($7,000): If Notre Dame has a soft spot, it has been to deep passes. Costello doesn’t have a great arm, but he does have a great receiver. That can make all the difference. Costello had his best games of the season against Oregon and San Diego State, Stanford’s two biggest games of the season. He has been coming up big in big games. Does that continue? For $7,000, it’s worth finding out!
Ryan Willis ($6,900): Willis was thrust into the starting role just before the disastrous fourth quarter against Old Dominion last week, but you can’t blame the defensive disaster on him. Willis was solid, running for 30 yards on four carries and throwing for 131 yards and a touchdown. Duke has a good defense and Willis isn’t Josh Jackson, but I see a solid game here for the price.
Quintin Harris ($6,500) or Daniel Jones ($6,000): Obviously, I would prefer Jones since he was the starter before breaking his collarbone in week 2 and was trashing Northwestern when he exited. Virginia Tech’s secondary was just scorched by Old Dominion, so whoever starts at quarterback for Duke is on my radar for a cheap S-flex option. You can go lower than this, but I don’t know if you will find near the value of this play.
Benny Snell ($8,800): Benny Snell is the Kentucky offense. In the three games against FBS opponents, Snell has 96 DraftKings points. He is a workhorse, and he does a lot with the carries. If he can put up 175 rushing yards on a Florida defense that is still pretty good, I’ll definitely take him against South Carolina.
Miles Sanders ($8,400): Penn State kept feeding Sanders down the stretch, and he turned that into 200 rushing yards. He isn’t going to do that against Ohio State, but the place where Ohio State has allowed big plays on defense this year has been on runs, not passes. Penn State is going to try to slow the game down by running a lot, but I still don’t know that I would use Sanders. This is a brutal matchup.
J.K. Dobbins ($7,100): The Buckeyes have spent the first month using Dobbins enough for him to stay loose, but without tiring him out. His season high in carries is 18. He may not top that against Penn State, but that would only be if he averages a dozen yards a carry. Against this Penn State front, it could happen. I expect a big game from Dobbins here, both in touches and production. Penn State’s weakness has been hidden because of weak opponents and/or deluges. That stops here.
Mike Weber ($6,100): More often than not, Weber has been the big play compliment to Dobbins, but I have no issue with using both of them here. That said, Weber left last week’s game with a leg issue. That doesn’t seem to have affected him this week, but in the off chance that it has, Weber may not see the carries that he had up until last week. There is far more risk here than with Dobbins, and I don’t really see where the upside is that much higher.
Tony Jones ($5,300): With Jafar Armstrong out, we care going to see Jones get the lion’s share of the carries. Jones was already getting most of the production. This is a tough matchup against the Stanford defense, but at this price, I like Jones to take the pressure off of Book. His first start was great, but this Stanford front is going to throw everything at him. A good start from Jones will help alleviate that.
Nico Evans ($4,500): Evans is at the top of Wyoming’s depth chart this week after missing the last two with a rib injury. That is huge for a Wyoming team that struggled to move the ball without Evans and that still can’t get a passing game going. I expect to see a lot of Evans, and if he is 100%, this could be a monster game for the price.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside ($7,500): Name another Stanford receiver. Can you? I’m not sure that K.J. Costello can either. Arcega-Whiteside has seven touchdowns already, and the bugaboo for this Notre Dame defense has been receivers getting behind them. If Stanford is to win this game, it will be because JJ and Costello exploit that at least once.
Damon Hazelton ($6,800): Hazelton has hauled in nine passes for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the last two weeks. It’s going to be tougher sledding against Duke, but if Tech has to throw to stay in this, which they likely will, I see Hazelton having a pretty big game.
Hakeem Butler ($6,300): If you have read me at all over the last four years, you know what a fan I was of Allen Lazard. Butler may be even better. Butler was the guy that came up big in the upset of Oklahoma last year and the near upset this year. He catches anything in his area code. Butler has some of the best hands you’ll ever see on a receiver. Put him in the lineup and enjoy the fun!
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Deebo Samuel ($5,900): Even though Georgia shut him down, the Gamecocks still found a way to get Samuel involved. He ended up throwing a touchdown pass! Samuel has 20 catches in the three games this year. Bentley is going to get him the ball no matter how tough the opponent. I don’t see a big game here for Samuel against a good Kentucky D, but the sheer volume of touches makes him worth a look when he is this cheap.
T.J. Rahming ($5,700): The Hokies got gouged repeatedly by the Old Dominion passing attack last week. I expect Duke to attack in the same way regardless of if Jones plays or not. I like Jones better, but Rahming is in play regardless of who is under center.
Kevontae Turpin ($5,600): Turpin is one of the most versatile playmakers in college, and has been for a couple of years now. He is a threat to house it any time he touches the ball. However, I was much more comfortable playing him when the price was around 4,000 instead if this high. Still, the fact that he returns punts as well gives him a chance to score every week. Where else is someone’s chances that certain?
Johnathan Lloyd ($4,900): If Harris ends up starting for Duke, I think I like Lloyd over Rahming. Lloyd has caught a touchdown from Harris in all three games that he has played with Jones out. The visions of the Old Dominion receivers running wild against the Hokies last week is still in my mind. There is no reason not to use both Duke starting receivers here.
Austin Conway ($4,400): It isn’t often that we find a number one receiver at a number three price. Wyoming is a passing offense that has an awful passer right now. The coaching staff remains committed to Vander Waal, and I get it, but it makes it hard to play Conway. That said, he has 19 catches in four games. Conway will find the end zone sooner or later, and this matchup against Boise has me believing that it will be sooner.
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