Draftkings Afternoon Slate week 4 -Sunday September 30th
Is your Main DraftKings lineup already ruined after a couple drives? I’m here to help you win your money back!
Why not double down and takedown some GPPs down with me. If you are a returning viewer you know we’ve won some big money already. If you are new, welcome and I hope there is a lot of green in your future. This slate is probably the best an afternoon slate will ever be. It features 2 obvious amazing games and 2 not so obvious gems with tons of upside. The afternoon slate might have more games I’m looking at than the main slate. All these games offer some sort of upside that I love. The cash line could end up being higher than the main slate. I will definitely be making some afternoon lineups and put it in the main slate.
Sea @ Ari
It’s Josh Rosen’s first start as an NFL QB. He was thrown into the end of the game last week against the Bears and did horrible. In his defense, you don’t throw a rookie into a 2 minute warning to try to win against one of the top defenses in the league. This wasn’t the best start to his career but he has the ability to have a nice bounce back game here against a poor Seattle defense which could be without the 2 players holding this defense together; Earl Thomas and KJ Wright. Without them this defense has the ability to get picked apart by the cheapest QB on the slate; Josh Rosen.
If you take him as your QB he provides amazing salary relief and if he’s able to put up 20-25 points he is a great starting point to destroy this slate. This team hasn’t shown they can put up points so far this season but with a new QB to open the field and playbook more these cheap guys in Arizona could get a nice bump causing a huge misprice for the team.
David Johnson’s price continues to fall. He is currently the 4th RB on this slate and 7th on the main slate. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate, he is still a workhorse back but just hasn’t been put into a situation where the team gets enough snaps for him to be elite. Each week his snap count percentage has grown by 9%. Last week he played 86% of the snaps, I’m hoping he reaches over 90% this week. Seattle’s defense should allow for more snaps for the Cardinals offense. We aren’t looking for rushing yard upside with DJ it’s his involvement in the passing game that gives him his huge ceiling. Last week he had 9 targets; which was on over 1/3 of his routes run. He rarely pass blocks so if he’s on the field he will be used, we just need the offense to be better. If they continue to lower his price I will play him, but this might be the last week he will be under 7k. Fitzgerald Kirk and RSJ should be more involved this week if Rosen can preform and turn this game into a shootout.
Russell Wilson is great and is always in play no matter how bad the team is doing. He’s going up against the Cardinals that hasn’t stopped anyone yet and that should continue. If Rosen plays to his first-round potential this could end up being a sneaky shootout and a pivot stack game against the chalk games on the slate. Carson played more snaps last game than the first 2 games combined. After being benched at the end of the game he was the main back and got over 30 rushes and out touched Penny 34-3. His efficiency was really bad he needed 30 rushes to get to 100 yards. I’m not going to chase this. I doubt he sees over 20 rushes and should go back to a time share in Seattle, they drafted Penny first round for a reason even though Carson shined in the preseason Carroll will continue to frustrate us making us guess. Lockett and Dissly continue to look like Wilson’s favorite target and should see the most volume Sunday. Even though Brandon Marshall has seen the most targets he’s only catching at a 50% rate with 2 drops already in just 3 games.
Top Play
David Johnson (6.6k): Dk continues to price him down. He has the ceiling to break the slate at that price. With a rookie QB taking over look for DJ to get more involved as Rosen will look to him for checkdowns raising his usage in the passing game.
Value Play
Josh Rosen: He is the cheapest starting QB on the slate. He provides the salary relief to pay up in other spots. Playing against a poor defense look for him to have a possible big game in his debut as the starter in Arizona.
Christian Kirk: Kirk was Rosen’s favorite target in the preseason. He saw 9 targets last game look for him to be more involved in this offense going forward.
Stacks
Rosen/Johnson/Fitzgerald: All these guys are so cheap for their potential and on a slate that has some pretty expensive studs they are worth the risk to be able to grab Kamara and Thomas.
Wilson/Lockett/Dissly: These are my favorite plays from this side of the field. Dissly and Lockett are Wilson’s favorite targets and if this game turns into a shootout I want them.
Cle @ Oak
We got another first round rookie that’s starting here. Baker Mayfield came in after Taylor had an awful first half. Hue finally decided to bring in Baker and he looked like everything the number 1 pick should be. I actually played him in single game and still lost money because I can’t pick touchdowns haha. I’m excited to see if he’s able to continue to excel. Jarvis was clearly the favorite target of his and an excellent play. Taylor couldn’t connect with him but once Baker came in the connection was instant. Callaway saw 11 targets last game but only was able to pull in 4 he’s a deep threat he’s a big play waiting to happen here. Njoku is also in play as the rookie will look for him over the middle of the field as a safety net. Cleveland should be playing from ahead so they will look to milk the clock as much as possible with Carlos Hyde to secure the win.
Last game Jordy Nelson showed he’s still got a little juice left in the tank, but I don’t think he’s worth chasing until I see more games with similar usage. Last year the Browns struggled against the TE. This year we don’t have a big sample size going up against TEs with ability in the passing game. Jesse James finished with 3/60 and Watson finished with 4/19 with a dropped touchdown pass. Cook has proven to be a threat but I’m not looking to pay up at TE. Jalen Richard what can I say if the Raiders are losing they will continue to feed him. The Raiders will be in a negative game script so they might just start blindly feeding him late in the game and could end up with 6 targets on the final drive. Cooper is still the top WR in that offense and is still a force if given the opportunity but he just hasn’t been targeted enough for me to play him outside of the Denver game where Carr was hitting everything.
TOP PLAY
Jarvis Landry: He saw a majority of Baker’s targets and that should continue as one of the top WRs in the league he will serve as a nice security blanket for him moving forward.
VALUE PLAY
Browns D(2.9K): This is my favorite defense on the slate. I will have the most exposure to them on the slate with a few Chargers and Saints D sprinkled in. All the other games look to be high scoring so I’m taking my chances here.
Jalen Richard (3.4k): I know it’s crazy to think that a team will have negative game script against the Browns, but the Browns have a legit D and if the offense can get going they should be winning. Jalen Richard gets targeted too much at the end of the game while down which might be one of the reasons the Raiders keep losing. This is a play if you think the Raiders will be playing from behind late. He will get nothing if they are winning so don’t tilt until the end of the game.
STACKS
Baker/Landry/Njoku: Baker will throw in high volume to these guys and Njoku is my favorite TE on the slate which ends up being a nice stack.
NO @ NYG
This game could end up being very high scoring. This is where the chalk will end up being. Shepard has been getting talked up all week as a great value play for the main slate after his 6/80/1 game last week. Is Sterling Shepard and the Giants offense really back? With Evan Engram out this week he could be instore for a great game.
The Saints are allowing a ton of points to the WRs and total points to the opposing teams. Lattimore will be shadowing OBJ and look what happened to Julio and Ridley last game. Barkley is going to see a huge volume of passes and Evans was able to do well even when shadowed by Lattimore. This just seems like the perfect trap play to me, but we will see. We are seeing a huge usage rate from Barkley so far this season. His running stats need work but volume is king in fantasy. His involvement in the passing game puts him as one of the top plays on the slate. If he’s able to get going in the running game have could be in store for a huge game. Negative game script will be in his favor too with the Giants O line not being the best Eli will continue to look for quick check downs with the pressure getting to him. In a slate that will be tough to find defenses to play the Saints D are a sneaky GPP play with the sack upside the Giants O line provides. I love to target the Giants in GPPs. That offense has potential if the O line can give Eli time. Rhet Ellison is an interesting punt play with Evan Engram out. He’s only 2.7k and with no real standout at TE on the slate he’s worth a look.
The Saints Offense is full of studs there’s no denying that. Michael Thomas is currently playing to his full potential hauling in 38 of his 40 targets so far. That’s puts him on pace for 202 catches on 213 targets which would destroy the current record. He’s due for some regression but if this game turns into a shoot out he should be able to continue that usage. Alvin Kamara has played to expectations with Ingram out. His price continues to raise, we knew last week against Atlanta he would kill; pass catching backs vs Atlanta are now permanent locks with all the injuries to the Falcons’ defense. PLAY GIO IN MAIN haha. There’s not much to say about Kamara he’s not a must play at that price but is playable and provides a wonderful ceiling. Cameron Meredith finally made his debut for the Saints. He only played 34 of the 79 snaps for the Saints but that was enough to find the endzone. He should be able to get more involved this week in his second game back. He ran 27 routes but was only targeted once last game but against a poor Giants D he should be able to get his this week.
TOP PLAY
Michael Thomas(9.1k): The amount of volume he continues to receive the price is warranted especially if this game goes over how Vegas predicts and becomes a shootout.
Alin Kamara(9.6k): His history of production speaks for itself and looks to continue his amazing performance in 2018. He’ll come down to Earth a little this game but the ceiling is always there to go off. If you can afford him play him, but don’t force him with plenty of great plays on the slate.
Saquan Barkley(8.1k): His usage in the passing game gives him a great ceiling and in a shootout he could be instore for a great game if Lattimore is able to shut down OBJ and force Eli to checkdown to him. His running has improved to increase his floor and his breakout potential is always there if the O-line allows him to get to the second level.
VALUE PLAY
Rhet Ellison (2.7k): With no real standout at the TE position this week he’s worth a shot. Even if he flops TE should be high scoring enough to screw you and lets you get up to some more talent this slate.
Cameron Meredith (3.7k): He should be seeing more routes time week and the targets will come over time.
STACKS
Brees/Kamara or Thomas/Meredith: Tough to fit both studs in here and going with Meredith gives you nice salary relief in what could end up being a shootout.
Barkley/Shepard/Rhet: As you’ve noticed I’ve been avoiding OBJ. I think Lattimore is still good enough to shadow well and shut down the main guy so I’m looking at stacking the others.
SF @ LAC
LA will look to get on a roll after starting 1-2 they should be able to take advantage of the 49ers who now are without their starting QB after losing their starting RB before the season even started. This game could get ugly fast. Last year C.J Beathard played 6 games for the 49ers and ended averaging 238/.66/1. Even with the Chargers struggling without Bosa they should be able to handle him very well. A negative game script should favor Breida over Morris this week. Breida is the pass catching back and should see an increase in usage while the 49ers are playing from behind. I’m not really looking at the 49ers for fantasy productions outside of Breida and maybe Goodwin for some YAC and deep ball threat.
The chargers have good options to exploit here especially if Allen gets ruled out. He’s been questionable and limited in practice all week. If he’s ruled out load up on what will be chalk Mike Williams who will get a huge bump. The Chargers have been running with only 3 WRs when Benjamin has been out. If both are ruled out Ekeler could be seen running some WR snaps as he’s been running more snaps there since Benjamin has been out the past 2 weeks. Positive game script should favor Gordon who is priced up pretty high but is worth it with how efficient how has been. Philip Rivers is my top QB on the slate with the 49ers being weak in coverage, Rivers should have plenty of time to find the open receiver and pick this team apart.
Top Plays
Philip Rivers: He’s my top QB to play up for on the slate. As long as Gordon doesn’t steal all the touchdowns Rivers will have high volume to target the secondary without Sherman.
Melvin Gordon: He has a huge ceiling because he touchdown upside is huge. His touches have been down but his efficiency is crazy high. If he’s
Value Plays
Austin Ekeler: His usage is also crazy high and doesn’t need a lot to produce at that pricetag. He could end up lining up at WR if Allen is out to boost his usage even more and break the slate.
Matt Breida: He’s not really a value play but I had to add him in here because he is considered cheap for running back and I love the play so I just had to include him in here.
Tyrell Williams: This play is mostly if Allen is ruled out or limited. As we saw the year Allen was out Tyrell can play a big part in this offense
Stacks
Rivers/M. Williams/Ekeler/Breida: Whatever Chargers stack you end up doing make sure to run it back with Breida because the game script is going to be in his favor. I’m choosing the cheap option for stack but Gordon and Allen also will be good for stack on the chargers side
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