DraftKings NFL Week 4 Ownership Projections

Every week of the NFL season, I will provide you with my projected ownership of each position for the DraftKings NFL main slate. These DraftKings NFL Week 4 Ownership projections are based on social trends, pricing, injury reports, match-ups and so on. Sources include beat reporters, weather reports, individual team injury reports, Pro Football Reference and FanShare Sports. 

For clarity, we will only be analyzing the main slate of the week (1PM and 4PM EST games) on DraftKings which includes the new version of the Millionaire Maker, Roman’s Fantasy Football Millionaire.

Follow me on Twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for late breaking news that may affect ownership and chalk.

The best thing that can happen to your DraftKings NFL lineup is finding a low owned, high reward player who can separate you from the competition. There is no better feeling than seeing your top WR score two touchdowns and noticing he is only owned by 2% of the field.

This season, I will provide you with who I expect to be the highest owned players at each position along with some of the top expected performers with low ownership expectations. I will also provide my picks per position based on the ownership and pricing relationship and isolate a few hidden gems.

"A contrarian is a person that takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority."

One thing I will mention regularly is value or ‘hitting value’. What that means is a player scored enough fantasy points to be worth his price tag. What I consider to be value is landing in the ‘cash’ of a particular contest or tournament and making a profit off of your initial entry. The metric we use to discern the value is your players multiplier or Points/Price equation. For example, Player X costs $6700 and this week on DraftKings he managed to score 20.7 DK points. You would then take the point (20.7) and divide it by the players cost by moving a decimal over three spots from the right (stay with me). In this case, $6700 would turn into 6.7 or 6.7K. 20.7 DK Points divided by 6.7 would be 3.09, and that number signifies the ‘value’ of a player. Player X scored 3.09 times his cost.

On to Week 4 where a lot of the biggest names are off of the main slate having played on Thursday, Sunday Night or Monday.

CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR QUARTERBACKS IN WEEK 4

Week 4 QBs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership

Top Tier (10% owned or higher)

• Andy Dalton

• Baker Mayfield

On the DraftKings main slate this week, there is no game with a higher over/under than the Bengals vs. Falcons. At 53.5, vegas is expecting a showdown in Atlanta. The spread is also on the move as the Bengals have shrunk to a 3.5 point underdog after opening at 5.5 suggesting the ‘sharps’ believe it will be a close affair.

Andy Dalton at $5400 has peaked the interest in the DFS community as the likely chalk of the week (Unless Baker Mayfield is able to usurp him late). In this heavy-hitter match up, I’m expecting Dalton, Giovani Bernard and Tyler Boyd to be among the highest owned at each of their positions. Through two weeks, Dalton had 6 touchdown to only 1 interception but maxed out at 265 passing yards. Despite throwing 4 picks in his Week 3 loss to the Panthers, he did manage to amp that up throwing for 352 yards and adding a pair of TDs. Although the interceptions are worrisome, they do not have a major effect on a QBs fantasy score which allows for guys like Dalton to succeed in DFS. With AJ Green and Bernard removed from the the injury report, he will have all of his weapons available including new go-to, Tyler Boyd. It also doesn’t hurt that the Falcons give up the 4th most DK Points to opposing QBs at 28.4 per game.

There’s not much to say that hasn’t already been said about Baker Mayfield ($5300). The polarizing rookie was phenomenal in his shortened debut in Week 3. Unsurprisingly, due to his price and perceived upside, Baker will be at the top of the chalk this week. He will also be facing a mediocre Raiders defense as the Browns and their supporters begin their quest for a playoff spot with their newly appointed quarterback. Despite not throwing for a TD, Baker was very efficient while completing 17 of 23 passes for 201 yards. I think a lot of the hype around Baker involves his scrambling ability but I wouldn’t count on his rushing yards in your lineups this weekend. He only attempted to run with the ball twice for a total of two yards in Week 3 and will likely have a QB spy on the Raiders defense to prevent him from scrambling effectively.

Mayfield is deadly accurate and was successful in his brief appearance last week on passes of 15 or more yards. This will be a vital statistic and metric for Baker moving forward with targets like Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway at his disposal…

Middle Tier (7-10% owned)

• Eli Manning

• Deshaun Watson

I bet you wouldn’t have guessed Eli Manning ($5600) would be creating a stir at any point this season. That’s what happens when you are facing the Saints defense, however. With 34.6 DK points per game, the Saints are the worst in the league against the QB this year. Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick have already provided career games against the Saints this season and the public thinks the aging Eli Manning can have similar results this week.

Surprisingly, Eli Manning is pacing more then 10% higher of a completion rate then his highest career mark. At 73.6% completion, Manning’s switch to a shorter yardage approach is clearly paying dividends. It would also be his lowest yards per completion if the season ended today at 9.9 YPC.

I am a little surprised with the popularity of Deshaun Watson ($6300) this week. Yes, he finally broke out with 385 passing yards and 2 TDs but the game script was very much in his favor. In a game in which they were trailing early, Watson threw for a season-high 40 passes as the lead back, Lamar Miller, only saw 10 carries. In a game that I expect to be close, Watson will likely come down to the 30-35 pass range and may not have the same luck. The Colts are also a pretty decent defense against the QB. They rank 8th in the league, only allowing 14.6 DK points per week to the opposing QB.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk

In my opinion, there are a LOT of great options around or below 5% expected ownership this week and I plan on fading all four members of the ‘chalk’ this week. If you REALLY want to use one of the four, I would lean Baker Mayfield.

Week 4 QBs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets

Targets (5% ownership or less)

• Phillip Rivers

• Drew Brees

• Andrew Luck

• Matt Ryan

• Josh Allen

• Mitch Trubisky

To start, Phillip Rivers ($6500) is likely to be over 5% owned (inching towards 7%) but I still consider him a ‘low owned’ option. Rivers, 36, is among the many 35+ year old quarterbacks showing that age is just a number when you are protected by the league so well. Currently, Rivers is 0.1% off pace from tying his career high in completion percentage (69.4%) and has an excellent TD/INT ratio of 8-to-1. He is averaging 302 yards per game and has a current QBR of 115.7 (would also be a career-high). At $6500, he is facing the 6th worst defense against the QBs for DK points allowed in the 49ers at home where he has a 63.4% winning percentage in his career.

I have two worries about Phillip Rivers this week that are making me a bit cautious. Keenan Allen, his top receiver, is a little banged up with a knee issue and remains questionable heading into the weekend. The second concern is Rivers passing attempts per game. In three weeks he has had 51, then 27 then 30 attempts in each game. That is a huge fluctuation. Having a star running back like Melvin Gordon can often dictate the game script depending on the score and situation. Nevertheless, Rivers is in a premium spot if you solely look at price/opponent/ownership.

I don’t get it…Drew Brees ($6600) continues to shine, posting historically magnificent statistics and continues to be overlooked in DFS on a weekly basis. Like Rivers, I do expect Brees to eclipse 5% ownership, but not by much. Brees has completed 80.6% of his pass attempts, he has thrown for 1,078 yards with 8 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions and has a QBR of 122.2. He has also snuck in 2 rushing TDs! Despite the perception that most of his passing success is reliant on Alvin Kamara, he’s sitting at 8.4 yards per attempt which would be the 2nd highest of his career.

The Giants have been decent against the QB this year but are no more than a middle-of-the-road opponent for Drew Brees and the Saints. Coming off of a riveting performance against the Falcons, Brees will look to continue to compete in the NFC South and has a healthy Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and company. He sits at $6600 this week, which is the third highest, but still remains below the rarefied $7000 mark held by only a few over the years. At roughly 5% ownership, it’s going to be very hard to fade Brees this week.

Andrew Luck ($5500) has certainly struggled through 3 weeks of the season but he looks healthier each week that passes. Luck threw for a measly 164 yards on 25/40 pass attempts and only managed to grab 1 TD through the air last Sunday. He was able to run one in to save his DFS score in a loss to the Eagles. At $5500, he is significantly below the top-tier of QBs and faces a tough pass rush this weekend with the Texans coming to town. He will also spend another week without his #1 tight end, Jack Doyle, as he turns to Eric Ebron, TY Hilton and others to step up in his absence. Despite all this, Andrew Luck is bound to go off at some point this season, why not this week? The Colts continue to lack an identity in the running game and Luck has produced 124 pass attempts through 3 weeks. If he can manage to get his completion percentage up from 59.4%, he could be deadly.

Matt Ryan ($6100) had 374 yards and 5 touchdowns last week against the Saints in their overtime loss. They are slowly getting desperate as they seep into the basement of the NFC South. Despite Ryan’s excellence, the defense couldn’t slow the Saints down in an epic shootout last Sunday. The Falcons now turn their attention to the Bengals who are visiting Atlanta in what should be another high-powered offensive showdown. Since Ryan’s porous performance in Week 1 against the Eagles, he has been spectacular with a 116.1 QBR against the Panthers and a 148.1 vs. the Saints.

The Bengals are the 7th worst defense against the opposing QB on DraftKings, allowing for 25.8 DK points per game to be scored. At $6100, that would be plenty for Ryan to be a great play. With the emergence of Calvin Ridley, Ryan now has another dependable target in what was already a potent offense. Ryan will definitely be below the 5% owned mark and is an exceptional pivot off his counterpart, Andy Dalton.

Need to save some cap room for others? Josh Allen ($5100) and Mitch Trubisky ($5200) are your options for low owned, low cost QBs in solid situations. Josh Allen is coming off the early upset of the year and in recent memory, helping the Bills to defeat the Vikings 27-6. In that game, Allen only had 196 passing yards for 1 TD but ran in 2 TDs off his 10 ‘rush attempts’. He is a clear and present danger while scrambling. He also faces the Packers this week who have struggled a bit against opposing QBs. In Week 1, the Packers allowed for Mitch Trubisky to run 7 times for 32 yards and a TD in what could be a preview of how Josh Allen will look to attack Green Bay. Can the Bills pull off two miracles in a row? Even if they are unsuccessful, at $5100, Allen is a valuable risk.

Trubisky is $100 more than Josh Allen in a more favorable match up. The Bears host the Buccaneers this weekend who are the 6th worst against the QB on DraftKings this year allowing an average of 27.4 DK points to be scored per game. Trubisky’s pass attempts are as consistent as anything this league has offered this year. 35, 34 and 35 are his pass attempts through three games. Against the Buccaneers, Drew Brees had 45 pass attempts, Nick Foles had 48 and Ben Roethlisberger had 38. An uptick for Trubisky wouldn’t be a surprise this week as he tries to conquer 300 yards passing for the first time this season. With Tarik Cohen and Anthony Miller out this upcoming Sunday, Trubisky will rely heavily on his main targets (Allen Robinson, Jordan Howard and Trey Burton) to get over the hump.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

Typically, I enlist three different variations of lineups on a weekly basis in DFS. I typically target three QBs per week and I believe all three are listed above. Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck are all in favorable positions this week and have an incredible track record of success. They aren’t flashy picks in an unpredictable league but I feel their ownership expectations are too intriguing for me to pass up.

CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR RUNNING BACKS IN WEEK 4

Week 4 RBs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership

Top Tier (25-30% owned or higher)

• Giovani Bernard

• Alvin Kamara

All expectations and projections point to Giovani Bernard ($6300) being the #1 chalk of the week and for good reason. Bernard, historically a third down back, has become the spear head of the Bengals rushing attack during the absence of Joe Mixon. He has still been below average in the rushing attack, only providing 61 yards on 12 rushes last week but he brought home his first rushing TD on the year in that same game. More importantly, he’s become even more critical in the passing game with 16 targets in the past two weeks. He only caught 5 of 9 for 25 yards in their loss to the Panthers but the success of the offense clearly is dictated on his success, and that is premium space with a back who is only $6300. Their opponent this weekend, the Falcons, have been terrible against both the rushing attack and through the air. After getting torched for 43 last week against the Saints, they are in for another shootout against Cincinnati providing our biggest over/under for Week 4. With Mixon’s return in the near future, the clock is ticking on Bernard’s ability to make himself invaluable on this current roster.

It is nearly impossible to find a flaw in playing Alvin Kamara ($9600) every single week. The Saints have what is likely a top 3 wide receiver in Michael Thomas and I still believe Drew Brees’ first read is always Alvin Kamara. Unlike many backs in the league, Kamara is dominant in two dimensions, pass catching and running the ball. Only he and Todd Gurley posses the ability to force a defensive coordinator to prepare for an elite running back and wide receiver that happens to be the same player. Alvin Kamara leads all running backs in targets with 38. The next guy is Saquan Barkley who has 27. Kamara’s 38 targets is the fourth highest among all players! Only his teammate Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown and Adam Theilen (who played Thursday) lead him. The sick part about that statistic is that he also has 37 rush attempts and has yet to go off in the run game.

Last season, Kamara averaged 6.1 yards per rushing attempt. This season he only has gone for 3.8 yards per attempt. If water finds it’s level, the DFS community is in trouble. Coming off of a 20 target (TWENTY!) game, Kamara is likely to see more usage in the running game as the New York Giants have been more impressive in their secondary than their front seven through 3 games. Good luck fading Kamara, even with his $9600 cost.

Middle Tier (15-20% owned)

• Melvin Gordon

• Ezekiel Elliott

I haven’t been particularly impressed with Melvin Gordon’s performance in the first three weeks, having yet to rush for more than 80 yards and has two straight games with 38 yards or less through the air. Despite these concerns, Melvin Gordon ($8300) still knows how to find the end zone and has 4 TDs thus far. More importantly, Gordon faces a 49ers team in LA this weekend who will be struggling mightily on offense. After losing Jimmy Garoppolo, the likelihood of long sustained drives and the ability to push the Chargers into a competitive contest is slim. Melvin Gordon could see a lot of work on Sunday while the Chargers look to control the tempo. They have been engaged in two high scoring contests against potent offenses (Chiefs and Rams) and I find this match up favorable for a guy like Gordon. Add in the fact that Keenan Allen is struggling through a knee injury and this could be a great play.

93.75%. 165 of 175 snaps. Ezekiel Elliott ($7700) is on the field A LOT. While I don’t think it is sustainable and is often bad long-term for a running back to be on the field so often, it creates a great opportunity for a DFS player in the short-term. With absolutely zero help from secondary running backs and a wide receiver corps that has no identity, this team starts and ends with Ezekiel Elliott. Surprisingly, he has yet to surpass 17 rushes in a game through three weeks and has seen a growing number of targets in the passing game. In my opinion, that is the incorrect way to use Zeke Elliott, but I am not an NFL coach. Their opponent, the Detroit Lions, had a surprisingly positive performance from their front seven against the Patriots last Sunday Night but have been atrocious overall. Ranked the third worst defense against the run on DraftKings, they have allowed for 34.2 DK points per game to opposing running backs. Sounds pretty juicy for a Ezekiel Elliott explosion game, no?

Lower Tier (10% owned or higher)

• David Johnson

• Saquon Barkley

• Marshawn Lynch

• Carlos Hyde

I have had confidence in David Johnson ($6600) in the first three weeks and the public seems to finally be catching up with me. Despite his lackluster performances through three weeks, his explosiveness has returned. He had an excellent first half against a great Bears defense last week and was inexcusably cut out of the offense for most of the second half as the Cardinals tried to cling on to their lead and seemingly decided to get Johnson’s backup, Chase Edmonds, more involved in the game plan. Against NFC West rivals, the Seattle Seahawks, Johnson has the chance to final break out against a defense that is not the powerhouse it once was. More importantly, DJ is only $6600 among some giant price tags.

As I mentioned before, Saquon Barkley ($8100) has seen 27 targets in an offense that has migrated to a short field strategy. Barkley’s involvement in the offense seemingly is unaffected by the score or situation. In two tight contests against the Jaguars and Texans, Barkley was heavily involved in the run game with 18 and 17 rushes per game. In a game where they were trailing often on Sunday Night to the Cowboys, he saw 16 targets, 14 of which he caught for 80 yards. The icing? They get to face a Saints defense who hasn’t been able to slow down anyone. They have been impressive against the run, but that clearly doesn’t effect Barkley’s role in this match up. He is rather expensive, at $8100, but it isn’t a poor play if you want to come down off guys like Kamara and Gordon.

Marshawn Lynch ($4800) has barely been on the field half of the time when the Raiders have the ball. The results? 48 rushes for 170 yards and a TD per game (3) while adding 7 catches. Go figure. He is rarely on the field but knows how to leave his mark when he is. He is clearly touchdown reliant, but that has yet to slow him down thus far. Lynch is clearly the chalk-to-be in the $5000 or less crowd in a match up against the Browns. The Browns have allowed 28.5 DK points per game to opposing RBs.

I’m not speaking for Carlos Hyde ($5500), but I presume a few outside forces assisted in his great performance (23 rushes, 98 yards, 2 TDs, 2 receptions). The QB of the future, Baker Mayfield, stepped into the spotlight. It was his birthday. It was also the day of his daughters birth. Pretty hard to argue with the universe. Despite not having such overwhelming motivations in Week 4, Hyde has the ability to put a vice grip on the #1 RB position. He has averaged a tick over 20 carries per game and has cashed in with 4 rushing touchdowns to date. They also face a Raiders defense that is clearly struggling with the loss of Khalil Mack. Hyde may not perform to the same caliber as week 3 on TNF, but with the extra rest and a cheaper price tag, I like his chances to follow up with a decent encore.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk

It is going to be hard to fade both Giovani Bernard and Alvin Kamara this week. Bernard’s price and opportunity is premium this weekend and Alvin Kamara is undeniable. I would only go with one and it will completely depend on the salary decisions you make at other positions. Outside of the top 2, I am ready to roll with David Johnson for a fourth straight week.

Week 4 RBs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets

Targets (10% ownership or less)

• Sony Michel

• Lamar Miller

• LeSean McCoy

• Ty Montgomery

• Ito Smith

Sony Michel ($4500) had moments during the Patriots bleak Sunday Night performance against the Lions that gave New England fans flashback nightmares of Lawrence Maroney. His inability to find the open hole and attack turned into falling forward for small gains was a disappointing kick off to his now very important rookie season.

With the recent injury that has sent Rex Burkhead to the IR, the Patriots are limited to two usable running backs in Sony Michel and James White. While White will likely be on the field plenty, Michel is the default #1 back on the Patriots roster. Against the Lions, Michel had 14 carries for 50 yards with a long of only 15 yards. He hasn’t shown the big play ability that he displayed during his time with the Bulldogs in Georgia. That being said, he is still recovering from an injury that held him out of Week 1 and the Patriots will need him to perform in an immediate must-win against the Dolphins. He is only $4500 this week and is facing a Miami defense that has allowed the 8th most DK points to opposing running backs with 28.7 DK points per game.

Similarly, Lamar Miller ($5000) is facing a troubled defense this week. The Colts are the 7th worst team against the rush on DraftKings, allowing 29.9 DK points per game to RBs. Miller, who is only $5000 this weekend, has rushed for 176 yards on 44 attempts and has yet to push in a rushing touchdown. However, he has caught 8 of 10 balls including a touchdown through three weeks. Additionally, the Colts are VERY good against WRs leaving Miller as the ‘best’ target in the situation. I don’t love the expected game script this week, but the match up and price makes Miller slightly intriguing around that 5% ownership level.

I am a sucker for a talented back with low ownership and high upside. Likely to play despite being ‘Questionable’, LeSean McCoy ($5600) will face a middle of the pack Green Bay defense following a week where the Bills smashed the Minnesota Vikings. Confidence is at an all time high in Buffalo behind it’s rookie QB Josh Allen and I imagine the offense is ready to enroll the help of McCoy. He only has 16 carries in 2 games this season and more concerning, he has only 7 targets for a RB who is typically heavily involved in the passing game. Despite all of the negative factors, I love McCoy as a contrarian play at $5600 and likely under 3-4% ownership.

With the Randall Cobb surprise appearance on the injury report combined with the lack of legitimate options in the passing game, Ty Montomery’s skill set may be of use to the Packers this Sunday against the Bills. Althought the Bills proved last week that they can keep up with a superior opponent, their defense has allowed the 5th most DK points to RBs and are not much better against receivers. Ty Montgomery ($3800) saw 7 targets last weekend, 6 of which he caught for 49 yards. I love the opportunity he may see on Sunday and am more excited about his price tag, only $3800. Their backfield is crowded but Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones have been average at best thus far and allow for Montgomery to provide help int he passing game.

Despite flopping last week, I still think Ito Smith ($3000) is a playable option in Devonta Freeman’s absense. Tevin Coleman hasn’t been spectacular and Smith is seeing over 1/3rd of the offensive snaps. He did manage to catch 3 balls on 4 targets for 41 yards in Week 3 and will likely be more involved in the high scoring affair expected between the Bengals and Falcons. Once again, he should be around or under 1% owned and is only $3000 if you need to save some serious cash.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

All five options above are very high-risk despite most of them being incredibly cost effective. I am ready to roll with Ty Montgomery this week and find Sony Michel to be the safest bet in this range.

CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR WIDE RECEIVERS IN WEEK 4

Week 4 WRs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership

Top Tier (20-25% owned or higher)

• Odell Beckham Jr.

• Sterling Shepard

• Michael Thomas

• Jarvis Landry

A pair of New York Giants look prime to control the ownership this week in a great spot against the Saints. Odell Beckham Jr ($8700) has been pretty consistent thus far, catching 24 of 34 targets for 271 yards. He has yet to find the end zone but has been a safe play at WR all season. The Saints have been dreadful against the pass this season allowing 66.3 DK points per game to opposing WRs, 15 points higher then the next worst team (Buccaneers). They were steamrolled by DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans and others in week 1 and allowed for Calvin Ridley to explode on to the scene in Week 3. Beckham’s price tag of $8700 scares me a bit but he should have ample opportunity to see the ball on Sunday.

Shepard plays a similar role to DeSean Jackson and Calvin Ridley as the #2 guy in the passing game. With Evan Engram OUT for Week 4, Sterling Shepard ($4900) will be relied on even more in this match up against the Saints. He has yet to surpass 80 yards receiving through three weeks, but was able to grab a TD in Week 3 against the Texans. At $4900, he is a much friendlier option than OBJ in this explosive match up.

On the other side of that game is Michael Thomas ($9100). Thomas was 2nd in targets through three weeks with 40 and has just been so significant to that Saints offense. He was unable to score last week but still caught all 10 of his targets for 129 yards in an excellent performances. With his success, he has seen a spike in price, now peaking at $9100 on DraftKings. The Giants have actually proven to be a difficult task in the passing game, allowing the 5th lowest per game average for DK points at 27.2 per game.

Jarvis Landry ($7400) is essentially QB-proof at this point in his career. After switching between Ryan Tannehill to injury replacements to Jay Cutler to Tyrod Taylor to now Baker Mayfield, Landry seems to stay rather consistent no matter the situation. I do however believe that he and Mayfield have an opportunity to have an incredible relationship. They were undeniable in the brief time they had together in Week 3 but it was clear that something was there. On 15 targets, Landry caught 8 for 103 yards against the Jets on Thursday Night. He was 6 for 8 with Baker at the helm including 4 of 15 yards or more. At $7400, Landry is in the sweet spot if you are not looking to spend up for guys like Julio Jones, Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr. among others.

Middle Tier (15-20% owned)

• Antonio Callaway

Antonio Callaway ($4300) is a blossoming star as the Browns begin this journey with their revamped roster in the 2018 season. Despite only catching 4 balls for 20 yards in Week 3, Callaway saw 10 targets, including a few TD heaves. He is a true burner and had a few opportunities to turn his night into a memorable one on Thursday Night. Despite his clear potential, his pricing is still at $4300 on DraftKings against a Raiders defense that has allowed the 8th most DK points to opposing receivers.

Lower Tier (12-15% owned)

• Tyler Boyd

• DeAndre Hopkins

Tyled Boyd ($4600) has performed at an elite level the last two weeks. With 16 targets in the past two games, he has caught 12 for 223 yards and 2 TDs. He has been a standout in this Bengals offense and may see a similar if not higher target share as AJ Green tries to remain healthy. The Falcons have allowed 40.7 DK points per game to opposing WRs and were really bad against the Saints attack in week 3.

DeAndre Hopkins ($8400) and Will Fuller will be pretty popular again this week with both expected to surpass 10% ownership. With Fuller back fully healthy, Watson has begun to strive and becomes a deadlier QB when he has both Hopkins and Fuller in the fold. The Texans head to Indianapolis looking for their first win in a surprisingly poor season. The problem for Hopkins and Fuller in Week 3? The Colts have been the best defense against the WR in DraftKings this season. Hopkins has been completely consistent through three games. 11, 11, 10 targets in consecutive match ups with 78, 110 and 86 yards receiving. My biggest argument against Hopkins is his price at $8400 but his high upside and consistency is something that a DFS player needs.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk

Jarvis Landry is my favorite play out of the chalk. Baker Mayfield may throw 20 balls his way as he settles in to his first NFL start. Landry and Callaway are both solid plays despite their high ownership.

Week 4 WRs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets

Targets (10% ownership or less)

• Allen Robinson

• Taylor Gabriel

• TY Hilton

• Calvin Ridley

• Christian Kirk

With Anthony Miller out and a favorable match up coming against the Buccaneers, I really like this pair of Bears wide receivers to grab a few extra targets and take advantage of their reasonable pricing. Allen Robinson ($5900) is the clear #1 in Chicago after spending years with Blake Bortles as the #1 in Jacksonville. Although he has no more than 83 yards in a game, his 28 targets lead the team. Against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 51.1 DK Points per game to opposing WRs, Robinson should have a great day.

On Robinson’s flank is Taylor Gabriel ($3900). Gabriel has had an impressive 22 looks come his way. Somehow, he has only gone for 89 total yards on 15 catches, but the the targets are there. At $3900, he is much more price friendly than Robinson for a guy who gets similar targets. With Miller out, I think Gabriel is in an incredible spot.

In an offense where Andrew Luck is consistently throwing the ball in 100 different directions, TY Hilton ($7000) is the only steady stream of offense. With 11, 11 and 10 targets through three weeks, Hilton has impressed with 17 catches, 179 yards and 2 TDs. I love this spot against the Texans this week, but I do worry about Hilton’s production without Jack Doyle on the field. If Eric Ebron is able to step up, Hilton may be able to give you his best number at only $7000.

I understand the DFS community often fades the guy that just had the career week but this is ridiculous for Calvin Ridley ($4900). Sitting around 5-7% ownership this week, Ridley’s price is still very low at $4900 coming off of his breakout game. Coming off of back-to-back weeks of 4-64-1 and 7-146-3, he doesn’t have to do much to hit value at that price. Even if the Bengals put an emphasis on stopping him, they can only do so much with Julio Jones on the other side.

I have identified my next Calvin Ridley of the week. Rookie Christian Kirk ($3700) is coming off of a solid performance against the bears (8 targets, 7 catches, 90 yards) following a week 2 performance of 5 targets, 4 catches, 27 yards. He is only $3700, should be around 5% owned and gets to team up with Josh Rosen against the Seahawks in an NFC West showdown. It is a tiny sample size but 3 of Rosen’s 7 passes went Kirk’s way in the 4th quarter and the Seahawks aren’t particularly great against the WR.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

My number one play in this range is Christian Kirk, no doubt in my mind. A growing rookie who will see a million targets from Josh Rosen is a great spot for me. And I absolutely will take another shot with Calvin Ridley to see if he has some sort of follow up coming.

CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR TIGHT ENDS IN WEEK 4

Week 4 TEs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership

Top Owned TEs (10-15% owned or higher)

• Eric Ebron

• David Njoku

• Rob Gronkowski

In his golden opportunity with Jack Doyle sidelined, Eric Ebron ($3600) did nearly nothing with his 11 targets. Only 5 catches and 33 yards receiving is not going to cut it if you are the chalk two straight weeks. With Doyle out a second straight week, Ebron has a shot at redemption this Sunday vs. the Texans. Houston is the 8th worst team against the TE in DraftKings, allowing 15.5 DK points per game through three weeks. At $3600, Ebron will have another shot as the DFS darling of the week.

The Baker Mayfield Show has clearly effected everyone involved. Both Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway are in the top 5 ownership projections and David Njoku ($3200) may very well be the highest owned TE. Despite seeing 16 targets so far, Njoku has only accumulated 69 yards on 9 catches so far. At $3200, Njoku is one of the highest perceived values on this board and I don’t necessarily disagree. Baker’s ability to extend plays should help big bodies like Njoku get in a good spot to see the ball 7-10 times this week.

Despite having two of the worst games of his career combined with the fact that he is the overwhelming highest prices TE, the DFS community is ready for Rob Gronkowski ($7000) to explode against the AFC East leading Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have been pretty good against the TE this year, only allowing 11.2 DK points per game. If he plays, the addition of Josh Gordon to the receiver options will absolutely help Gronk moving forward. Gronk has also only see 8 targets at the most in a game, you have to think that will increase whether he is double teamed or not.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk

I like Eric Ebron the most out of the mega-chalk. The 11 targets in the first Jack Doyle-less week were very intriguing to me and he should get a few looks at the end zone.

Week 4 TEs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets

Targets (5% ownership or less)

• Zach Ertz

• Rhett Ellison

Despite the emergence of rookie TE Dallas Goedert who was able to score, Zach Ertz ($6200) saw 10 targets for the third straight week in Carson Wentz’s return to the field. Ertz has an impressive 215 yards on 21 receptions this year despite the newly generated competition with the rookie Goedert. His price is high, $6200, and his match up is tough with the Titans being the second best defense against TE on DraftKings only allowing 4.6 DK points per game to opposing TEs. However, I think Ertz and his buddy Wentz have the chance to rebuild their relationship over the next few weeks as the start their playoff campaign.

Rhett Ellison ($2700) was already seeing some looks prior to Evan Engram going down last week as the Giants secondary TE. With Engram out for their Week 4 match up against the Saints, Ellison is my favorite play on the slate (spoiler alert). Ellison is $2700, will be less than 5% owned and will be facing a Saints defense that has given up over 34 points per game. Ellison has caught all 6 passes thrown to him thus far and even has a TD. He really only needs 10 DK points to hit value…I think that is pretty reasonable this week.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

RHETT ELLISON. There is a chance I ONLY use Rhett Ellison this week and maybe a sprinkle of Eric Ebron. Ellison has an incredible opportunity with Engram out and the Giants opportunity to enter a shootout with the Saints.

Follow me on Twitter at @AlexMcKinnonDFS for the latest on ownership and pivot plays as we approach Sunday’s slate