Where should Jimmy Butler go? NBA 2K18 weighs in

Jimmy Butler doesn’t want to be with the Timberwolves anymore. That much is obvious from his trade demand, but where exactly does that mean he’s going to end up?

The star wing has proven to be one of the NBA’s most consistent two-way players the last few seasons and theoretically, should raise the bar of any team he plays for.

The question is more about what uniform he’ll be wearing next season. Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe of ESPN have connected him to a handful of teams, but Minnesota has been reportedly bogging down trade talks with demands higher than what teams are willing to pay for him.

"The Minnesota Timberwolves’ asking price to trade All-Star forward Jimmy Butler remains quality veterans, top prospects, future assets, and salary-cap relief, which is presently too steep of a package for interested teams, league sources told ESPN.…The Miami Heat have been the latest to aggressively pursue a deal for Butler, but Minnesota’s counter was a non-starter for Heat president Pat Riley, league sources said. Along with Butler, Miami had been willing to accept Gorgui Dieng and the remaining $48 million left on his contract under the right circumstances, sources said.The Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, and Cleveland Cavaliers are among teams interested with Butler, league sources said. The Brooklyn Nets have interest, but they haven’t been engaged recently with Minnesota, sources said. Washington and Dallas are among teams who’ve gauged the asking price on Butler too, league sources said."

Of the teams Lowe and Wojnarowski have listed, the two that have been creating the most noise as of late have been the Rockets and Heat. Miami is Butler’s reported preferred destination, but his contract is expiring and that gives teams like Houston a chance to take a one-year rental for a chance to win a championship. A chance that someone like Daryl Morey and the Rockets are more than willing to take. There are also teams such as the Wizards, with very little to lose at this point, that have the assets to claim a Butler but would need a perfect season to justify making the trade.

Would that risk be worth it for someone like Houston though, or even Miami for that matter? Smart franchises take necessary risks, but if the immediate results don’t pan out then that risk could blow up in their face. At the end of the day though, for the Wizards, Heat, and Rockets this is about adding talent to the roster. Talent wins in the NBA and the best available player out there right now is Butler.

With that in mind, let’s try and predict what it would look like if Butler were to go to these three teams. The best basketball simulation out there right now is NBA 2K18 so we’ll use that for our study. All trades and injuries have been turned off to try and avoid any potential outliers in the simulated seasons and the main focus will be on how Butler and his new team performs. Of course, it will be worth keeping an eye on how the Timberwolves do in these simulations as well.

All trades created are based on previous reports of players the Wolves have either shown interest in, or have been connected to in some way. The basis of these trades will be on the report from Lowe and Wojnarowski that Minnesota is trying to add veteran talent while clearing cap space at the same time. They’ve also shown a willingness to add younger players that could grow with the team. This doesn’t mean any of these trades are going to actually happen, but it creates a basis that we can work with. The main goal here isn’t to create the best Jimmy Butler trade but put Butler in a semi-realistic situation.

Miami Heat

The Heat want Butler for pretty obvious reasons. They want to add a star player to their roster and the only way to do that is through a trade. They’ve spent the last few offseasons stuffing their cap space with giant contracts for good but not great players, and it’s put them in a mess. The Heat can’t really improve through free agency at this point, but they’re too good to collapse and get a high-end draft pick. So when a player like Butler comes into the fold, and he shows an interest in them, they have to take it.

The goal with adding Butler will be to get him to re-sign long term after his contract ends. He’s going to hit free agency no matter where he goes, but he’s going to want a lot of money after that. The Heat will likely have to give him that contract if he performs up to expectations. Reports so far are that he wants to be in Miami, at least for this season, and that likely has to do with his relationship with Dwyane Wade. The Heat legend played with Butler during his brief stop in Chicago and the two had a good relationship there. Butler likely wants to play with Wade again and the culture Miami has built fits his personality well.

Trades involving Butler and the Heat typically involve Josh Richardson. He’s the best asset Miami has in terms of talent and contract. He’s a great defensive player and is on an extremely team-friendly deal. Minnesota also wants to rid itself of the Gorgui Dieng contract if possible and the Heat are in a situation where they can take that on if it means they get Butler. However, they might have to give up a young asset in the process. The best young asset other than Richardson the Heat have is Bam Adebayo. There’s no telling if the Heat would actually be willing to party with Adebayo, but for the sake of giving the Wolves a young asset, he’s the one I chose to send back to Minnesota with Richardson.

The Suns have also gotten involved in this deal. They want a point guard and the Wolves are trying to make the salary work so they’ll send Tyus Jones to Phoenix in exchange for TJ Warren. The Wolves will also pick up Goran Dragic to replace Jones with. This deal monstrously favors the Wolves, but the goal here for Miami is to just get Butler and remove at least one veteran contract in the process.

So how did this trade pan out for everybody? For Butler, he ends up on Second Team All-Defense, a solid personal accolade. For the Heat themselves, well they struggle through most of the season and only get 38 wins. However, because the East is what it is they manage to sneak into the playoffs an eight seed before they’re eliminated by the No. 1 seed Raptors in the first round. A playoff appearance should be enough to keep Butler in Miami however which was the overall goal for the Heat. Wade gets his retirement tour and Butler brings in the immediate future.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets came into the Butler talks late, and at no point has Butler been reported as wanting to play in Houston, but one-year rentals are all the rage these days. If everything goes well they might be able to convince Butler to stay in Houston beyond this season. Look at what happened with Paul George and the Thunder? The problem in creating a trade is there haven’t been many names connected in these talks. All we know for certain is the two sides have talked.

Looking at it that way we have to get a little creative and remember the parameters of these trades. The Wolves want to clear out cap space so Gorgui Dieng will be involved. They want veteran talent. Well, the Rockets have two incredible role players in Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker. The Kings have been listed as a team that are willing to get involved in trade talks to act as a third party to make salary work. They have an expiring Zach Randolph contract that Minnesota could eat and use as a veteran on their roster.

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In this scenario, Dieng goes to Sacramento while Houston gets Butler. Let’s assume the Kings are also awarded a couple second round draft picks for their troubles as well. What are the results in all this? Personally, it leads to my favorite results of all the simulations in terms of potential storylines and performance. Butler individually doesn’t receive many accolades, but the Rockets themselves have massive success. They win 50 games, get the three seed in the West, and immediately have a matchup with the new look LeBron James led Lakers. How’s that for kicking off the playoffs?

The Rockets managed to push themselves all the way to the Western Conference Finals where they’re eliminated by the Warriors in a rematch from last season. That result alone would be fun for basketball fans everywhere just because of the pure star power in that matchup, but what I was personally cheering for was for Butler to play against his old team. The Wolves also managed to make the playoffs in this scenario, and they even reached the second round. Unfortunately, a Butler vs. Minnesota grudge series was not in the cards.

Washington Wizards

So far, the only two teams to be reported in any serious talks with Minnesota are Houston and Miami. The Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nets, and Clippers have all been connected as well but they just don’t have the assets to justify Minnesota trading away its star wing. There is one team though that not only has the assets for it. They also would be the funniest locker room story in the NBA and that is the Wizards.

Despite having John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards disappointed last season and barely snuck into the playoffs. They gave the Raptors a push in the first round, but they just didn’t have the oomph needed to make a run. To try and add some spice into the roster, Washington went and got perpetual locker room problem Dwight Howard, because the best thing to add to a powder keg locker room situation is a match to make it all explode.

So, of course, the Wizards have now been connected to Butler. They’ve reportedly just shown interest in him, as any team should, but what if they actually managed to put a package together to add him to their roster? Would a Butler-Howard locker room actually survive? There’s already been so much drama and passive aggressiveness in Washington and Butler’s grating personality would only add fuel to that fire.

But goodness that team would be talented. Wall and Beal are both individually great. Howard is still a double-double machine and Butler is one of the NBA’s best two-way players. There’s reason to see why this could work. The Wizards would have to give up Otto Porter, but that’s a small price to pay for a potentially great starting lineup. The Kings are involved once again to make salary work and Zach Randolph’s expiring contract continues to be the best option.

So what are the results in all this? Since it’s the Wizards they manage to disappoint even in the weak East. They win 40 games and are eliminated from the playoffs on the final night of the season. This simulation had some weird results with the Hawks being a three seed and the Cavaliers taking that final playoff spot away from Washington. Butler does manage to make Second Team All-Defense again, but that’s not enough to convince him to stay. Missing the playoffs is a colossal failure and he’ll likely explore elsewhere once this season is over. This isn’t even going into the potential disaster locker room scenarios that would exist. How many days until an actual tape line is made to separate Butler’s side from Howard’s side of the locker room? Butler’s former team meanwhile manages to get into the playoffs without him, but are eliminated in the first round.

The chances of Washington retaining Butler feel slim, but it’s not impossible. Butler and Wall played together with Team USA so there’s a potential relationship there. If the two are close, and the season isn’t a complete and total disaster chemistry wise, then maybe Butler chooses to stick around with the Wizards. He’s never indicated that team success is one of his priorities with where he signs so maybe missing the playoffs ends up not being a huge deal to him.

Final notes

In all these simulations there’s one thing NBA 2K18 made clear and it’s that Butler being on a roster doesn’t really change the overall results of a team that much. The Rockets still made the Western Conference Finals but were eliminated by the Warriors. The Heat barely made the playoffs and the Wizards were disappointing. 2K clearly doesn’t put that much value into Butler changing the course of an entire team’s season.

I personally disagree with 2K. I think the Heat and Wizards would both see massive improvements in the short term by adding Butler. I’m not sure how much it would change the Rockets, but that has more to do with there isn’t much more Houston can improve on besides beating the Warriors. Maybe that means they need to make a Butler trade to fight star power with star power, but how much that moves the needle is just impossible to know for sure in an era that includes Golden State.

However with 2K’s results in mind, where would be the best place for Butler? From a team success standpoint there’s nowhere better for him than Houston, but if that’s unimportant to him then maybe Miami really is the best destination. He fits the Heat culture. They want a star and the best way to get one is by trading for him. There’s obvious risk in the contract that he would have to get after being signed, but what exactly does Miami have to lose here? They’re stuck in the mud and need a way to pull themselves out of it. Butler might be exactly what they need to do that.