Predicting the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Pacific
P1 San Jose Sharks vs. WC1 Dallas Stars
Probably a series that would go underappreciated without much of a rivalry between the Sharks and Stars, but this has all the makings of a fun series. Can the Stars sneak into the playoff and spoil the Sharks’ all-in season?
Why San Jose is in
In July I wrote that if the Sharks wanted to truly be Stanley Cup contenders, they needed one final piece to push this team into the being true Stanley Cup contenders. The Sharks did just that and landed the biggest fish you can possibly get by robbing the Ottawa Senators of Erik Karlsson and making their defensive core one of the best, if not the best in the NHL today. The Sharks are going for it all this year and they absolutely should, future be damned. Time is running out with this roster.
Adding Karlsson to that defense truly does make the Sharks one of the best teams in the league. He and Brent Burns on the same defense by itself is unfair, and having Marc Edouard Vlasic as well would make nearly any team in the league a playoff team. All anyone else on the blue line needs to do is not be a liability, and Justin Braun, Joakim Ryan and Brenden Dillion are plenty productive on their own.
The offensive core of the Sharks is getting old, but it’s not out of gas yet. Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski are free agents after this season, but they’re still the heart and soul of this team. The addition of Evander Kane last season at the deadline pushed them to another level, especially in the playoffs, Tomas Hertl took a big step and is now a permanent top six talent, and Timo Meier should be ready for full time top six responsibilities next season.
Why Dallas is in
The Dallas Stars missed the playoffs last year in a tremendous late season collapse. Ben Bishop went down with an injury late, the stars were exhausted, and they missed the playoffs by three points after being in a spot almost all season long. There’s plenty of motivation to shake off the failure of the last couple seasons and get back to the promised land.
With a first line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov, Dallas is automatically a team to fear. Benn and Seguin are both in the primes of their careers, and Radulov just had a career season with 72 points. There’s not any reason to believe that any of them will fall off this year, now they just need the scoring support to lead the Stars somewhere. Their defense isn’t special, but it is good enough to not be a liability for them with the likes of John Klingberg, Esa Lindell and Marc Methot.
As it stands right now, Dallas is a fringe playoff team in the Western Conference at best. But I don’t believe for a second that this is the team Dallas will carry past the trade deadline. Dallas was shooting for a lot of the big fish this off season by being in the race for John Tavares and Erik Karlsson, so there is clearly willingness from management to load up and make a push this season. They struck out on both Tavares and Karlsson, so something else has to be in the works They have the cap space, the draft picks and the prospects to pay for any of the top players on the trade market this season.
Who will win
If the Sharks are serious about going all in, then losing this series would be a monumental failure. They would be the better team going into this series, but that doesn’t mean it would be easy. The Stars are a solid team trapped in a division of murderers that will be a problem for any team in the postseason. In terms of high powered offense, you can argue that Dallas would have the advantage with guys like Seguin and Benn over players lie Couture and Pavelski.
However, the Stars don’t have the depth to win a playoff series against a team as deep as the Sharks. The addition of Karlsson just makes them too good to stop, at least this early in the playoffs. San Jose takes the series and moves on, but the Stars will make them earn in it and hold their own in a bunch of closely contested games.
Sharks over Stars in six games