Tier 6: Could go a number of different directions
There are teams at this tier who are better, in theory, than some ahead of them. But there’s a lot of uncertainty for whatever reason, and I had no better place to put them. Welcome to the NHL.
Chicago Blackhawks
We’re nearing the end of an era in Chicago. The stars are getting older and the surrounding cast is no longer Stanley Cup-caliber. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are still 30 and 29, but the bottom six is subpar, and they lack younger defenseman to help make the transition from the aging Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook.
Brandon Saad is still 25, but they will continue to regret the Saad-for-Artemi Panarin trade before the 2017 season as Panarin projects to earn a healthy contract this summer in free agency. They signed Chris Kunitz in the offseason to presumably play on the fourth line, and they’ll rely on retreads like Marcus Kruger deeper in the lineup.
Questions remain about Artem Anisimov’s ability to play with anyone other than Patrick Kane. Goalie Corey Crawford needs to stay healthy, or else Chicago will give up nine goals per game with Cam Ward backing him up. As the Penguins have done with Sidney Crosby in recent years, the Hawks will run a Toews and the Kids first line, likely with Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Sikura.
Chicago is a fascinating team in an impossible division. Things will be interesting as we enter the latter prime years of Kane and Toews.
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks are the Blackhawks, just with no Stanley Cups and an older core. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are 33 and Ryan Kesler is 34. Anaheim, with goalie John Gibson rapidly approaching elite, managed 101 points and second-place in the Pacific Division last year, but they got burned in a catastrophic four-game sweep against San Jose.
Defenseman Cam Fowler will get a lot of minutes, Gibson will be heavily relied upon, and they’ll look for productive campaigns from young players Ondrej Kase and Sam Steel. Anaheim could get 100 points again, but I have questions about the Big Three and their depth — 29-year-old fourth-line center Carter Rowney, for example, was mostly unproductive in Pittsburgh. I’m low on the Ducks this season.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Everything in Columbus revolves around Panarin, the 26-year-old superstar who was supposed to be a cornerstone. Panarin is in a contract year and doesn’t look likely to stick around central Ohio, potentially forcing the Blue Jackets into extracting value via a trade. Dealing Panarin would kill their hopes at a playoff run.
World-class goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is also in a contract year and could bolt in free agency. It may be advantageous to trade him, too. Rough times for the Blue Jackets, who will be hard-pressed to fetch suitable assets for the two ultra-valuable players, given the expiring contracts.
For a team with a quietly solid core, particularly one starved for respect, having to let go of Panarin and/or Bobrovsky and punt on this season would be brutal. Bobrovsky could be the best goalie in the league. Zach Werenski and Seth Jones could be the best d-man pairing. There are other forwards around Panarin, including Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno and proven first-line center Pierre Luc-Dubois. There’s talent, and if they were to keep Panarin and Bobrovsky around, they could realistically steal the Metropolitan Division.
But whether they could make a real playoff run is another question. It may not be worth passing on the still-considerable future value they could get for their two stars in exchange for a longshot Cup run. It could be rebuild time if Panarin and Bobrovsky leave.
Edmonton Oilers
Two years ago, the Oilers were the darling surprise team of the league. Connor McDavid had real, live teammates beyond Leon Draisaitl. Jordan Eberle, Milan Lucic and Patrick Maroon scored 20 goals or more, and Cam Talbot had a .919 save percentage. Even Mark Letestu went off as they made the Western Conference finals, compiling 11 playoff points.
They fell back to earth last year, and in the process they fell deeper underground. They managed just 78 points despite a superhuman performance from McDavid. Draisaitl was good again, but most other players were not.
The good bet for this Oilers season is somewhere between their last two campaigns. To get themselves back to the playoffs, they’ll need Talbot to return to 2016-17 form in goal, and they’ll need possible McDavid linemates Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Ty Rattie to step up. The defense, led again by Oscar Klefbom, has to improve.