Tier 3: On the Fringe
They should make the playoffs, and have outside shots at serious contention. But all five teams in this tier have Achilles’ heels.
Dallas Stars
There’s a new coach in Dallas, and Tyler Seguin is locked in on a long-awaited extension. The time is now for the Stars, who have notoriously underachieved for most of the Seguin-Jamie Benn era. They have one of the best defenseman in the league (John Klingberg) and a suitable partner for Seguin and Benn on the first line (Alexander Radulov). Though the Central Division is murderous, they should actually make the playoffs this season.
The key, as it always is in Dallas, is depth, starting on a second line that the Stars often struggled to generate production from last season. Center Jason Spezza, now 35, had just 26 points in 78 games last season. His time on ice per game, exactly 13:00, does not make that brutal number any better.
Valeri Nichushkin, still just 23, is back from the KHL, and the Stars hope he can help Spezza. The bottom six still looks pretty weak, though the defensive corps and goaltending don’t look like weaknesses. Top defensive prospect Miro Heiskanen, who they were extremely hesitant to include in any trade for Erik Karlsson, should get some ice time this year.
Dallas struck out on big name acquisitions, the top-end talent is still there to finally make a run.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild are average, as always, but they should be average enough to make the playoffs again. They likely won’t do much while there, but this is shaping up to be a very Minnesota Wild type of season.
Ryan Suter will be run into the ground. Devan Dubnyk still verges on elite in goal. The first line of Eric Staal, Mikael Granlund and the vastly underrated Jason Zucker will score, at least as much as the aging Staal can muster. Minnesota didn’t do much this offseason besides signing d-man Matt Dumba to a big extension and adding retreads like JT Brown and Eric Fehr.
The concern is age. Suter, Staal, Dubnyk, Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise and Matt Hendricks are all 32 or over. That’s an old core. They’ll hope Dumba and 21-year-old center Joel Eriksson Ek can balance that out.
Calgary Flames
It was an active offseason in Calgary. Looking to build on a promising core, they added James Neal, Austin Czarnik, Derek Ryan and Noah Hanifin, though they surprisingly dealt standout d-man Dougie Hamilton to the Hurricanes. The biggest questions for the Flames are whether they can effectively replace Hamilton on the blue line, and whether 36-year-old goalie Mike Smith can do enough to get Calgary to the postseason.
The core is exciting and fast. Johnny Gaudreau is the centerpiece, but Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk look good, and Hanifin is a talented 21-year-old. The Flames are an intriguing team.
Los Angeles Kings
LA are rapidly getting older. They seem to know it, so they splurged on 35-year-old returning KHL-er Ilya Kovalchuk, a proven NHL talent, for a shot at one last run with the core that won two Cups. Anze Kopitar had a great season last year, and while he’s not getting any younger at 31, the Kings are reasonable to add a win-now piece like Kovalchuk.
The Kopitar-Dustin Brown first line was effective last year, and with a healthy Jeff Carter and Kovalchuk, the second line should improve. Drew Doughty is in his prime at 28, and the defense isn’t bad outside of the quickly-declining Dion Phaneuf. Jonathan Quick is still Jonathan Quick. The Kings should win some games.
Young talent exists in the form of 22-year-old Adrian Kempe. LA should hope more emerges, partially for depth now and partially for the future.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers, a year after disappointingly crashing out of the playoffs in Pittsburgh, had a good offseason. Their young defense, which was often mistake-prone in last year’s six-game first round loss, should take steps forward, particularly 21-year-old Ivan Provorov. Philly added prized free agent winger James Van Riemsdyk, an underrated add to a talented forward group.
Claude Giroux ascended back to top form last year playing on a line with Selke-caliber center Sean Couturier. Jakub Voracek, with young center Nolan Patrick, has long been a stalwart. The power play has net-front presence Wayne Simmons, who has gotten better with age at playing with Philly’s stars. Defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere is a legit No. 1 d-man.
Brian Elliott may or may not be a good starting goalkeeper — judging from recent Flyers history, he probably isn’t. Depth in defense and goaltending will be the downfall of this team, keeping Giroux and the top six from taking Philly deeper into the playoffs.