Go game by game with the NFL DFS Quick Hits and cut the fluff from your preliminary research!
Gooooooood morning Vietnammmmm! Any office fans in the house?! Nope, moving on…We’ve already reached Week 5 of the NFL DFS season and with the first week of byes in the rear view mirror, we look towards a week two more teams off; the Bears and the Bucs.
Speaking of the Bears, how about Mitch Trubisky?! Sheesh. Will we see that again? Probably not, but he’s sparked the discussion of his rest-of-season value, that’s for sure. In addition to Trubisky, we saw monster weeks from Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Corey Davis and more in Week 4. We’ll look to nail these plays in the NFL DFS Quick Hits for Week 5!
What are NFL DFS Quick Hits?:
For those of who haven’t read my quick hits before, I’m not going to list the top plays and value plays of the slate like the typical DFS article does. My goal is simple. I want to help lead you in the right direction and cut the fluff when you start your research. I will list all 15 games of the week and highlight one piece of data, a trend, or notable narrative to help you focus your research and condense your player pool.
I will also split up the article to make it an easier read. I will do this by breaking it up between the Thursday, Sunday (1 PM ET games), Sunday afternoon games and Monday games on separate slide.
With that being said, let’s get to Week 5:
*PFF Player grades refer to Pro Football Focus’ player grades that compile and evaluate the production of players both overall and in certain situations (i.e. receiving, run blocking, pass rush, coverage, etc.)
Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
When Rex Burkhead went to the IR last week, all of the attention in the New England backfield turned to rookie Sony Michel, who posted 25 rushing attempts for 112 yards and a touchdown. His lack of involvement in the passing game was expected, as James White had 10 targets, but nonetheless it was an impressive all-around effort. Michel has seen his snap count rise by 10 snaps every week (13-23-33) and his carries increase week to week as well (10-14-25). Should this trend continue and should New England jump out to an early lead, we could see him on the field even more and hoping to repeat his 75% usage rate when on the field from last week (25 touches in 33 snaps).
Sunday (1 PM EST) – NFL DFS Quick Hits
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
Not often regarded as a top-tier defense, the Tennessee Titans have quietly been extremely effective defensively. Of their front 7, 2 players own PFF grades over 80 while 5 own PFF grades over 70. When you couple that with the fact that the Buffalo Bills have allowed an average of 13.25 fantasy points (most in NFL), 5.25 sacks (most in NFL) and 1.5 INT per game (2nd most in NFL), the Titans’ $3,900 price tag on FanDuel seems like a gift.
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
After Tyler Eifert suffered yet another season-ending injury, the Bengals will be looking for another offensive weapon to step up and it looks like Tyler Boyd is already up for the task. After back-to-back games with 6 catches and a touchdown, he posted 11 catches for 100 yards on the dot in Week 4. Over the last three weeks, he’s posted 31 total targets with 23 catches for 323 yards and 2 TDs. Those are WR1 numbers…and he’s playing across from AJ Green. With Xavien Howard likely covering AJ Green this week (#1 DVOA vs WR1s this season), Torry McTyer will likely be tasked with slowing down Boyd. He grades out as the 97th ranked CB per Pro Football Focus with a paltry PFF grade of 52.3, while Boyd is only $6,300 on FanDuel.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
While Jarvis Landry‘s debut with Baker Mayfield wasn’t what we had hoped (4-34-1 on 10 targets), he could quietly post a bounce-back game against the Ravens this week. With Jimmy Smith back, we can expect many to avoid this WR group in general, but the pro for Landry is the fact that he’ll line up in the slot against Tavon Young, who’s player grade of 65.2 is over 10 points lower than last season. We know the targets for Landry will be there (10+ in 3 of 4 games this season) and his depressed price of $6,900 on FanDuel makes him one of the best mid-tier options on the slate.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions run defense (or lack thereof) is currently allowing 28.2 fantasy points per game to RBs, 6.1 yards per carry and 3 rushing touchdowns so far this season. While Mike McCarthy and the Packers seem hellbent on deploying a three-headed committee, Aaron Rodgers expressed his endorsement of RB Aaron Jones ahead of Week 4 and he didn’t disappoint (65 rushing yards and a TD on 11 carries). His snap count increased from 17 to 29 from week 3 to 4, which implies that we could be seeing an end to the committee. If there’s any matchup for him to takeover the backfield, this is it.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
With the Jaguars picking up Orleans Darkwa, we can safely assume that Leonard Fournette will miss Week 5 at the very least, meaning Blake Bortles will be looking to air it out. The Chiefs are the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL and if last week is any indication, Dede Westbrook could see an expanded role after seeing 13 targets. He was able to convert those targets into 9 catches for 130 yards. He also saw his highest snap count of the season (57) while the Jags ran a ton of 3 WR sets with him, Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief. He’s only $5,900 on FanDuel and comes in with a nice floor and high ceiling.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
The Jets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points in the league to team defenses (9.75), already tossing 5 interceptions, and only scoring 37 points through 4 weeks. Von Miller led the NFL in sacks heading into last week and should be able to feast against a Jets O-line without a single player over a player grade of 67.2 (PFF). Darnold’s PFF grade of 47.2 is also 32nd in the NFL amongst QBs. There are also 32 teams in the league. This means he is DEAD LAST amongst starting QBs. This could be a nice bounce-back spot for the Broncos defense after a heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs on Monday night.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Aside from the New Orleans Saints, no defense in the NFL allows more fantasy points per game to wide receivers than the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’ve allowed 220.8 yards per game and 1.75 TD per game to the position on an average of 13.5 catches, which surprisingly rank in the bottom half of the league. That shows that they are extremely prone to the big plays. On the flip side, Julio Jones is on pace for over 2,000 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns. Yes, ZERO. He also leads the entire NFL in air yards at 713, playing right into the big-play weakness of the Steelers. Odds he finds pay-dirt this week? High.
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers
I harped on it last week and it was proven correct. With Evan Engram out, expect Sterling Shepard to see a TON of opportunities. Last week, he turned them into 10 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers’ secondary has been a bit more vulnerable this season, leading to their signing of Eric Reid. Regardless, Shepard’s counterpart, Captain Munnerlyn‘s PFF grade of 58.4 is his lowest since his 2009 rookie season. With so much focus on OBJ, expect another efficient outing for Shepard at $6,200 on Fanduel for the second consecutive week.
Sunday (4 PM EST) – NFL DFS
Oakland Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
It’s hard to argue that there’s a worse overall defense than the Raiders this season, as they’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to RBs (23.55) and the 4th most fantasy points per game to WRs (30.25). Going up against a high-octane LAC offense seems like this game could be over rather quickly. If that’s the case, Melvin Gordon may be one of, if not the top RB option on the slate. He’s failed to rush more than 15 times this season, but his 104 yards on the ground last week shows he might not need more than that. Combine that with his involvement in the passing game (34 targets through 4 games) and he comes with arguably the highest floor on the slate.
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles
After coming into the season as one of the most feared secondaries in the entire NFL, the Vikings have allowed 32.5 points per game over the last two weeks and have failed to record a single interception. This trend looks like it could continue against a mostly healthy Eagles’ offense. Last week, Carson Wentz threw the ball a whopping 50 times in a loss to the Titans and the target distribution went:
- Ertz (14)
- Agholor (12)
- Jeffery (9)
With Minnesota suddenly a vulnerable secondary, the Eagles could make for a prime GPP stack at rather reasonable salaries.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
While the Cardinals did not come away with a win last week, Josh Rosen definitely impressed the masses, going 15/27 for 180 yards and a touchdown. While it was a rather conservative effort, he played safe and effective football. With Richard Sherman dealing with an injury, we could see another nice outing for Rosen. The other big perk of last week was the fact that David Johnson received 25 touches, his highest total of the season and 9 more than he received in any other game this season. The 49ers rank in the bottom third of the league against RBs (21.15 fantasy points per game allowed) and if the Cardinals want to win a game, DJ will have to be heavily involved. He’s also only $7,600 on FanDuel.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Oh my GOFF! I was tilting extremely early last week as I left Jared Goff on my bench as he tossed 465 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s proving the doubters who called him a system quarterback wrong and comes into another favorable spot against the now Earl Thomas-less Seahawks. The Seahawks haven’t allowed more than 20 points since week 1, but the fact that they’ve faced Josh Rosen, Dak Prescott and Mitchell Trubisky shed light as to why. While most may be targeting Big Ben and Matt Ryan, Goff could be a fantastic leverage play in tournaments.
Primetime NFL DFS Games
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
The Texans defense has been rather disappointing to kick of the season, but they come into week 5 with a get-right matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. While Ezekiel Elliott carved up the Lions last week, the Texans have only allowed 3.57 yards-per-game to running backs this season with only 1 rushing touchdown total.
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As for the passing game, last week was the first time Prescott topped 200 passing yards this year and the first time he recorded multiple passing touchdowns as well. Deonte Thompson and Allen Hurns are not a 1/2 punch at WR that will strike fear into a secondary either. With Zeke hobbled, the Texans come in as a great D/ST option and if Zeke sits, they could vault to the top of the rankings.
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara continued to do Alvin Kamara things last week, posting 181 all-purpose yards with 3 total touchdowns. While he’s been as close to an instant-lock as you can be early in the season, Mark Ingram‘s return makes this a bit more of a gray area. Given the fact that Kamara has not received more than 19 carries in a game this year so far, I frankly wouldn’t expect his usage to dip a ton.
On the flip side, if Ingram can pick up where he left off last season, he becomes an instant value play on FanDuel at $6,100. He’s more than worth a dart throw after totaling 1,124 rushing yards and 12 TDs last season.
Best of luck in your NFL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and Fantasy Football analysis!