The Week in Stats: Why Diego Costa is firing blanks

We look at the stats behind some of the main talking points from the past seven days, including Diego Costa’s struggles in front of goal.

The fine art of the counter-attack, Europe’s goals of the season to date and the ongoing woes of Diego Costa — these are the numbers that explain the past week’s headlines.

Those are the breaks

The weekend’s big games in Serie A offered some textbook examples of how to score on a fast counter. AC Milan’s victory over Sassuolo was secured via two breakaway goals, the first from Ivorian midfielder Franck Kessie, the second by Spain international Suso.

Juventus had already led by example a day earlier, with their opening two goals against Napoli — both scored by Mario Mandzukic — coming from counter-attacks.

However, the tables below show that Germany, not Italy, has been the true home of the fast counter in recent times. Bundesliga sides have been averaging both more breakaway shots and goals than teams in the other major European leagues, although it should be noted that no individual German side managed to score more on the counter than Liverpool last season.

Goal of the season so far?

A player must have done something special when La Liga’s official Twitter account singles out his strike as potentially the “goal of the season so far.” Step forward Pablo Fornals with his long-range opener for Villarreal against Bilbao …

It’s the only time the 22-year-old Spanish midfielder has found the net this season, and he managed just four goals in all competitions during the last campaign, but the stats underline quite how remarkable his strike was.

Indeed, in xG terms, Fornals’ finish really was La Liga’s goal of the season so far, although it was very nearly bettered at the weekend by Maxi Gomez of Celta Vigo. Gomez’s goal ranks highly because it’s so rare for players to score with a header from outside the box.

And those finishes by Fornals and Gomez are the most statistically remarkable this season in any of the big five European leagues. As measured by xG, the best goal scored outside La Liga has been Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg’s long-range thunderbolt for Southampton against Brighton.

Counting the Costa

On Saturday, Diego Costa failed to convert what was probably the best chance of a cagey Madrid derby — and that meant he still hasn’t scored a goal this season.

Of course, it’s impossible to compare Costa’s current form to his displays from the same period last season. That’s because he didn’t play until January after first falling out with Antonio Conte and then being stuck in limbo due to Atletico Madrid’s transfer ban.

Even when he did finally appear, Costa managed to get himself sent off in his first game back and then suffered an injury after serving his ban.

Nonetheless, taking a look at Costa’s overall shots and xG numbers can provide us with an insight into his current plight. One thing is immediately apparent from glancing at the striker’s shot maps for this season: the small number of efforts on goal.

It’s clear Costa is taking fewer shots, and is being presented with poorer chances overall, than usual. xG per 90 stats allow us to assess the quality of the scoring opportunities a player has, and Costa’s present figure of 0.15 is less than one-third of his average over the past five seasons.

Similarly, Costa’s current shots per 90 rate of 1.23 is below half of his 2.8 per 90 average since 2009. In fact, only once during the past decade has Costa averaged fewer than two shots per 90 over the course of a whole season — and that was way back in 2010-11.

Still, Costa can at least take comfort from the fact he isn’t the worst under-performer of the season in La Liga. He doesn’t even make the top five.

Data from WhoScored and Understat.