Week 5: Thursday Night Football Fantasy Preview
Welcome back member of FantasyCPR! We will be diving in-depth to the Thursday Night Football Showdown slate on DraftKings. First off, let’s recap the Monday Night Football Showdown!
I was not profitable, this slate appeared extremely difficult to me to find the right combination. Ultimately, I said in my last article multiple times, I wanted Travis Kelce at my captain position. Unfortunately, I just couldn’t get to him, felt like I was sacrificing too much for what I could potentially have in my cash lineup. I wanted to jam as much volume as I could into my lineups, I loved the Broncos run game, but didn’t feel like Royce Freeman or Courtland Sutton were cash game plays and that’s what ultimately burnt me in the end.
My cash lineup for Monday Night’s Showdown Slate:
Captain – Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Flex – Patrick Mahomes, KC
Flex – Case Keenum, DEN
Flex – Travis Kelce, KC
Flex – Harrison Butker, KC
Flex – Brandon Manus, DEN
This lineup produced 87.06 fantasy points, this was my optimal lineup, it surprised me, but it was my highest projected lineup heading into the slate and I couldn’t pivot off it.
Those 87.06 fantasy points were good enough to win 50% of my head-to-head games, I was profitable in tournaments but I just missed the double up lines.
To me, this is just an example of why you should be getting a ton of action in head-to-head games,as they have the least amount of rake and you’re not going to lose everything on a slate where you didn’t have your best lineup. Ultimately it comes down to believing in your lineup and I did not have as much faith behind Demaryius Thomas as I showed, it burned me, we have to just move on.
On to Thursday Night Football where the Colts travel to New England to play the Patriots. This game has an over/under of 51.5 and the Patriots are favorited by 10 points. Patriots are going to cover this spread fairly easily with the injuries that Indianapolis is experiencing.
So who are we playing at Captain?
Thursday Night Football Captain
I first wanted to give a shoutout to DraftKings for this product has been fairly profitable to me mainly because of how soft the pricing is and because you can usually find the minimum cash with playing both kickers and pounding the other four spots. However, this week you are going to have to nail the spot. DraftKings priced everything up. These slates are going to get harder, but they’re harder for everyone now, not just us.
Sony Michel, NE ($10,800)
The Patriots are 10-point favorites at home, Michel just came off a 25-touch 112 yards one touchdown game and in terms of the captain position pricing this week. I can get behind Michel, the Colts have played; Lamar Miller, Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood, Adrain Peterson and Joe Mixon so far this season. Against that crew they have allowed 276 yards and two touchdowns to running backs. While that doesn’t seem bad, those running back listed above are not high caliber running backs, most are in committee backfields. Michel is going to smash this week and we need to be ready for it.
Andrew Luck, IND ($17,100)
Luck is a great tournament play on this slate strictly from a volume and match-up standpoint. The Colts are 10-point underdogs on the road and are completely riddled with injuries. T.Y. Hilton is banged up, Jack Doyle is not going to play, Marlon Mack is likely going to miss this game. The Colts have an implied total around 21 points, meaning we can safely project Andrew Luck for two touchdowns. Luck has thrown for over 40 pass attempts in every game the Colts have lost this season. I expect 50-pass attempts against a Patriots team that struggles on defense. Luck will likely find my cash lineup this week with his volume.
Thursday Night Football Cash Games:
Cash games his week are a little tougher because we are not going to be able to just jam in both quarterbacks. Tom Brady is really safe this week in cash games, I’m going to try to get there but I honestly don’t know if I will be able too. It’s all news dependent for me. T.Y. Hilton is hampered by hamstring injury, if he was healthy I would lock him in. Jack Doyle is likely going to miss for the Colts on the short week and we don’t know the injury news on Rob Gronkowski or do we know if Julian Edelman is going to return and what his role will be. So I will list a few must-plays in cash for me with a friendly reminder that everything could change.
Eric Ebron, IND ($6,400)
Ebron is just way too cheap for the amount of volume he is receiving. Since Doyle has been hurt, Ebron has seen back-to-back double digit target games and if Hilton is out, Ebron’s going to see potentially 15 targets at this price. It’s way too cheap, the only thing we’re worried about is Ebron’s hands, as he tends to drop a lot of passes. However, at this volume, his floor is 8 fantasy points and his ceiling is 15-plus fantasy points. Ebron’s a lock-and-load in cash games, as he’s scored a touchdown in three of the first four weeks of the season.
James White, NE ($9,400)
White is over-priced, there is no denying it. However, I want the Patriots running game locked up in cash games. The passing game is a guessing game for both teams this week but the running games is going to be James White and Sony Michel. Game script doesn’t favor White’s passing catching, but the Patriots won 38-3 last week and White saw 10 targets. White only saw 8 carries last week but you never know when Belichick will flip the script. Lock in the Patriots run game in your cash games and figure out the rest later.
- If T.Y. Hilton is out, then Ryan Grant at $6,200 becomes cash game viable. Someone has to catch Andrew Luck’s 50 pass attempts. Grant saw 7 targets when Hilton was in-and-out in last weeks game.
- If Rob Gronkowski is out, then Dwayne Allen at just $2,000 becomes cash game viable. Allen has two targets this season, but if Gronk is out, everyone will flock here for value.
- If Marlon Mack is out, then Nyheim Hines at $6,600 is cash game viable. Hines has shown his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. Through the first four weeks of the season, Hines has caught 22 passes on 26 targets. He is heavily involved in the passing game in a game where they’re going to be trailing.
Thursday Night Football Tournaments:
Josh Gordon, NE ($7,800)
Josh Gordon is eventually going to erupt in this offense. I’m not counting on this being the week though with a hamstring injury hampering him. However, this could be an explosion for Tom Brady and the Patriots passing game offense. I will definitely have some teams with Brady, Gronk and Gordon hoping that that rises us to the top.
Chester Rogers, IND ($6,000)
If Hilton is out, then Rogers will gain some tournament traction for me. Luck is going to throw passes to someone and in Hilton’s short absence last week, Rogers saw 11 targets, catching 8 of them for 85 yards. I think Rogers is definitely a viable tournament play if Hilton is going to be out.
Thursday Night Football Sample Lineups:
These are subject to change, and I will never post the full lineup but this is where I currently stand.
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Captain: Sony Michel ($10,800)
Flex: James White ($9,400)
Flex: Andrew Luck ($11,400)
Flex: Eric Ebron ($6,400)
Average Remaining: $6,000 per position
Cash Game 2:
Captain: Tom Brady ($19,500)
Flex: Rob Gronkowski ($9,800)
Flex: Sony Michel ($7,200)
Flex: Eric Ebron ($6,400)
Average Remaining: $ 3,550 per position
Captain: Andrew Luck ($17,100)
Flex: Tom Brady ($13,000)
Flex: Nyheim Hinest ($6,600)
Flex: Eric Ebron ($6,400)
Average Remaining: $3,450 per position
Best of luck to all!
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