The unstoppable force meets the immovable object on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, with the Kansas City Chiefs welcoming in the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Nobody likes a party-crasher, but here come the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville is looking to spoil a city-wide fiesta on Sunday afternoon in Kansas City, where the Chiefs will be welcomed as conquering heroes at Arrowhead Stadium. For the third time in Andy Reid’s six-year tenure in Kansas City, his team is 4-0, but unlike the previous two occasions, this one comes with a franchise quarterback at the forefront.
Patrick Mahomes has been nothing short of brilliant thus far, the runaway favorite for the NFL MVP award at the quarter pole. Mahomes, making just his fifth career professional start, rallied Kansas City from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit at Mile High against the Denver Broncos on Monday night. It was a virtuoso performance, with the second-year man firing 45 bullets for 304 yards and a touchdown, along with a running score of his own.
On paper, the effort was his worst to date, which should tell you plenty about his first three games this season. On film, it was his best showing, evading the rush and making pinpoint throws under severe duress while the Denver faithful was in full throat.
With 14 touchdowns and nary a turnover, Mahomes has been the league’s best player this season, and also it’s most talked about. The Chiefs have never enjoyed a talent like this at quarterback, and suddenly have gone from a boring, methodical team to a high-flying circus led by a mustachioed ringmaster.
Enter the Jaguars, who enter the contest at 3-1 after pummeling the New York Jets to end a three-game homestand. Jacksonville is built in the exact opposite fashion of Kansas City, a team with a punishing defense that struggles to consistently move the ball due to its maddening quarterback, Blake Bortles.
Bortles has twice throw for more than 370 yards this season, but has looked awful in his other two outings. The Jaguars are going to be without Leonard Fournette who is battling a hamstring injury, but should have enough wiggle in the backfield with T.J. Yeldon and Corey Grant.
Luckily for Bortles and his beat-up offense, the defense has been in fine form with the league’s best personnel. The Jaguars rank first in yards allowed (259.3) and points (14.0) per game, while coming in third in yards per pass attempt (5.8) and fourth in third-down conversation rate against (30.2 percent).
Against Kansas City, the matchup which will generate the most headlines will feature that defense against Mahomes and his mates, and rightfully so. Can Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye shut down Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins (of he plays)? Can Kareem Hunt be bottled up by a front seven that includes Marcell Dareus, Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue and Telvin Smith? Will Travis Kelce be covered well by Tashaun Gipson and Barry Church, or does he run wild at the second level and beyond?
The questions are endless, and for both Jacksonville’s defense and Kansas City’s offense, it seems the possibilities are as well most weeks.
However, this game won’t come down to that matchup. It will be about when the other two units take the field.
Going into this tilt, the Chiefs’ defense has been a wreck of monumental proportions. The group has allowed the most first downs (113) and total yardage per game. (451.8) Kansas City checks in 25th in points allowed per game (28.8) and dead last in rushing yards per attempt (5.7).
Quietly, though, there are strengths that Bortles and Co. must overcome. The Chiefs are the best third-down defense in football, giving up a conversion just 23.8 percent of the time. Kansas City is also tied for 12th in sacks with 10, including three apiece from Justin Houston and Dee Ford. Jacksonville is without left tackle Cam Robinson, who unfortunately tore his ACL in Week 2.
Offensively, the Jaguars are very average. Jacksonville is 15th in total yardage (380.0), 14th in rushing yards per attempt (4.3) and 16th in yards per pass (7.3). Bortles ranks 16th in passing yardage (1,095) and 18th in YPA (7.30), with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett dialing up a cavalcade of safe throws that create yards after catch.
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For Jacksonville to win at Arrowhead, it will rely heavily on a balanced dosage of Yeldon running and Bortles identifying the open man. Kansas City has a pair of solid corners in Kendall Fuller and Steven Nelson, but struggle mightily covering in space with linebackers and safeties. Look for Yeldon, Grant and tight end Austin Sefarian-Jenkins to have their opportunities, something that could spell the difference in the final analysis.
The Chiefs and Jaguars, two perennial afterthoughts suddenly charging toward AFC supremacy. On Sunday, Kansas City looks to keep the party bumping. Jacksonville looks to turn off the music.