Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 5
While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate prediction, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story. Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.
*Funnel Defense refers to a noticeable difference in DVOA between pass defense and rush defense.
Pass Funnel Defenses:
NO (Pass: 32nd, Run: 1st), SF (Pass: 23rd, Run: 9th), HOU (Pass: 29th, Run: 2nd),
Run Funnel Defenses:
GB (Pass: 10th, Run: 26th), WAS (Pass: 3rd, Run: 31st), LARM (Pass: 7th, Run: 23rd), NYJ (Pass: 2nd, Run:16th)
Overall Inefficient Defenses:
TB (32nd), KC (31st), ATL (30th), NO (29th), NYG (28th)
New York Giants: Rank 28th in overall defensive efficiency
Carolina will play host to the visiting New York Giants, in a game in which the Panthers are a full touchdown favorite. Carolina will be fresh off a bye, and the offense will have a favorable matchup against a Giants defense than ranks 28th in overall efficiency. While their matchup does look enticing, there are a couple important factors to note for this matchup. First, it is expected that the Giants will get back pass rusher Olivier Vernon, and slot corner Eli Apple, this week. Their additions will be much-needed to help bolster a struggling defense. Second, the pace of this game should be slow. Carolina ranks 21st in Sec/Play (situation neutral) and New York ranks 31st in Sec/Play (situation neutral) (Football Outsiders).
That being said, I still think there is some fantasy juice to be squeezed for the Carolina offense. I wouldn’t expect a shootout, but I think Christian McCaffrey could make the most of his opportunities.
The addition of Turner should be an extra boost for McCaffrey, as he faces the Giants run defense that ranks 29th in efficiency.
Oakland Raiders: Rank 26th in overall defensive efficiency
Oakland wont have to travel far, as they’ll take on the LA Chargers in what figures to be more of a home game, than a road game, for the Raiders. Oakland was able to grab their first victory last week, but also allowed 42 points to the Cleveland Browns. While I actually do like the Raiders in this spot, and think this game will shootout, the Chargers will have obvious advantages on offense as they faces the Raiders defense that ranks 26th in overall efficiency.
The Chargers offense has been humming along nicely, ranking 4th in offensive efficiency, and averaging 27.75 points per game. I would expect them to continue to have success this week and for Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen to earn most of the fantasy production.
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