Fantasy Football: Top trade targets to buy for week 5

This is the first installment of The Buy Week. I’ll be highlighting some players at each position that I’m buying moving forward based on their fantasy football performance over the past few weeks and the season as a whole.

With the first four weeks of the NFL season in the books, we can finally see some trends starting to form in fantasy football. Guys like Alvin Kamara, ~~Ryan Fitzpatrick~~, and the entire Kansas City offense have started out on a record-setting pace. Other writers like Adam, here, and Bill, here, have you covered on the waiver wire for this week. So, let’s take a look at some players that I think you should be targeting in trades.

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

There is almost no point to trading for a QB unless you’re in a Superflex, Two QB, or a super deep league where teams roster more than 2 QBs. That is because there is almost always somebody worth picking up and starting on the waiver wire. But alas, we will forge onward with a few quarterbacks to target.

If there’s one we’re looking for in quarterbacks to target it is upcoming schedule. If there’s anybody that has a good upcoming schedule, it’s Andy Dalton.

Andy Dalton

If you haven’t noticed, the Cincinnati Bengals offense is very good. They have weapons all over the field in AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Gio Bernard, Joe Mixon (when he gets healthy), and Andy Dalton to spread the ball around. The Bengals have averaged a healthy 31.5 points per game through the first four.

In their next four games, the Bengals have Miami, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. Miami just surrendered 3 passing touchdowns to Tom Brady, Pittsburgh is giving up over 304 passing yards and 3 touchdowns per game, Kansas City is surrendering 328 yards per game through the air, and Tampa Bay gives up 358 yards per game.

Tom Brady

This season, Tom Brady hasn’t been spectacular, other than their week 3 game against the Lions, however, he has been very good.

After dismantling the Dolphins defense, the Pats get Julian Edelman back and Josh Gordon has another week of practice with the team. With their next two matchups being Indianapolis and Kansas City, Brady is going to start lighting up the stat sheet.

Since he’s barely cracked the top-20 QBs, you might be able to get him at a deflated price. Make an offer for Brady ASAP. If you wait until after Thursday night’s game to try to trade for Brady, the window will be closed.

NASHVILLE, TN – AUGUST 18: Running back Dion Lewis #33 of the Tennessee Titans rushes against M.J. Stewart #36 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half of a pre-season game at Nissan Stadium on August 18, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Football Running Backs

When I target running backs I try to target players that have good usage and snap counts and most of their production coming from yards and receptions.

What I mean by all of this is that I like my running backs to play a majority of the time regardless of game script and I like running backs that don’t rely on touchdowns.

In PPR and 1/2 PPR formats, this comes down mostly to pass catching

Dion Lewis

Even with all the hype surrounding Derrick Henry for the past few seasons, Dion Lewis was always the piece of the Titans’ backfield to own.

So far, Lewis is 2nd on the team in targets, behind only Corey Davis. He’s also 3rd on the team in receiving yards. The Titans brought him in because he’s a talented all-around running back, not just to catch passes. Lewis is playing on 62% of snaps compared to Henry’s 40%.

We’ve seen Lewis’ ability to carry the load for an offense. In the last two weeks of the 2017 season, Lewis carried the ball 24 and 26 times, averaging over 100 yards on the ground. He also caught 5 and 6 passes in those games, respectively. Lewis has had a ton of success as a lead back.

David Johnson

Chances are David Johnson owners are frustrated with their first-round pick. He hasn’t performed up to expectation. Whatever you want to credit this to, it’s not because Johnson doesn’t have the talent.

Johnson’s snap percentage has increased every week, up to 92% in week 4. The entire offense stands to benefit from Josh Rosen at QB. In week 4 he looked far more aggressive throwing the football than Sam Bradford. This raises the potential of this offense and takes a lot of pressure off DJ.

Along with his snap percentage, Johnson’s usage went way up in week 4. He carried the ball 22 times, 9 more than his previous season high from week 2. Another thing, in weeks 1-3 Johnson’s average depth of target was 1.3 yards, in week 4 it was 2.8 yards.

Whether this is a product of Rosen under center or an improving offensive scheme is yet to be seen. I do know, though, that I want a piece of David Johnson before his production returns to form.

GLENDALE, AZ – SEPTEMBER 30: Wide receiver Doug Baldwin #89 of the Seattle Seahawks runs with the ball after a catch during an NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on September 30, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

What I look for in wide receivers to target is opportunity. What are their target and air yard market share in their offense? When identifying players to buy I always look to buy players that have elite upside, meaning they have had success in the NFL before, or they have elite college profiles.

Odell Beckham Jr.

The one receiver that stands out to me as one that has lost value this season that could soon return to putting up huge numbers is Odell Beckham Jr.

OBJ is dominating in both target share (29%) and air yards market share (44%). Only Julio Jones has a larger air yards market share in his offense.

What’s hurt OBJ’s scoring is his lack of touchdowns this season. Generally, wide receivers score one touchdown for roughly every 150 receiving yards. With 331 yards and no touchdowns, Beckham is performing under expectation.

See if you can package a couple of players to an OBJ owner that might be frustrated and want to sell.

Doug Baldwin

Dough Baldwin is just coming off an injured knee that he injured shortly after coming off an injured other knee. The injury risk makes him a risky buy. He’s coming off an MCL sprain, which is an injury that isn’t as easily re-injured as say a hamstring (see: Leonard Fournette).

With risk comes great potential for reward. Tyler Lockett has been playing pretty well in Baldwin’s absence, but Lockett’s week 4, Baldwin’s first week back, looked totally different from his weeks 1-3. In the first 3 weeks, Tyler Lockett‘s average depth of target was 14.4 yards. In week 4 his aDOT dropped down to 6.5 yards., while Baldwin’s aDOT was 9.4 yards. Baldwin also had 7 targets to Lockett’s 6.

There is certainly room for both players to succeed in this offense, especially with the injury to tight end Will Dissly. However, anybody worried that Lockett may be snatching number 1 receiver status from Baldwin is misguided.

There are very few solid pass catchers in Seattle. It’s worth a shot to try to get Baldwin while fear of injury and Lockett taking over may be in the back of the Baldwin owner’s mind.

JACKSONVILLE, FL – SEPTEMBER 16: Rob Gronkowski #87 of the New England Patriots is seen during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on September 16, 2018 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Football Tight End

The tight end position is a wasteland. So many injuries, so many late round picks are in the top-10. If you don’t have one of the top 2 or 3 TE’s, you might as well be streaming the position.

Rob Gronkowski

Everything I wrote about Tom Brady extends to Rob Gronkowski. With Julian Edelman back, Josh Gordon more experienced, and the emergence of Sony Michel, opposing defenses will have to start defending somebody other than Gronk. This will free him up and help him to have some big games in the weeks to come.

Gronk is getting a decent chunk of New England’s targets (18%) and a very high market share of air yards (26%). The opportunity is there and I predict it will continue to be there with Edelman in the lineup.

Work quickly, the window to buy Gronk may very well close when the Patriots’ offense really starts humming again.

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Fantasy Football: The Buy Week

By Rob Kish | Oct 4, 2018