DraftKings Early CFB picks October 6: Murray could be huge!

DraftKings Early CFB picks October 6: Murray could be huge!

DraftKings gives us a nice 10 game selection again from the early and afternoon Saturday games. We have some good ones here, including the Red River Shootout, another inferior opponent for Alabama, another SEC defensive tilt in the Swamp, and a couple of Big Ten(14) defensive stalwarts getting tested. And that’s before you get into the other Big 12(10) offenses. Who should be build around? Let’s take a look!

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Saturday’s early slate last week was dominated by those who had Travis Etienne and/or Kyler Murray and the Baylor value. There is more value to be had this Saturday!

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Top Tier:

Will Grier ($10,400): Kansas is much improved, but not on defense. Oklahoma State had receivers running all over the secondary last week, but Cornelius missed as many of them as he found. That wont be the case with Grier. If the Kansas secondary doesn’t shape up quickly, West Virginia is going to feast on them. With one of the early season Heisman favorites taking aim at them, it doesn’t look good for the Jayhawks here.

Kyler Murray ($10,200): Quarterbacks who run are gold in DFS, especially in college when they run a lot. That wasn’t Oklahoma’s original plan for Murray, but they had to rework the playbook when Rodney Anderson went down. Murray has run 42 times for 262 yards and four touchdowns with Anderson out, a large majority of those on designed runs. The fact that he has thrown 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions in that time doesn’t hurt either. The production will be there, even against an improving Texas defense.

Middle Tier:

Trevor Lawrence ($8,700): We saw a young quarterback by the name of Ian Book shred the Wake defense here a couple of weeks ago. Now it’s Lawrence’s turn. Of course, there is risk here, but Lawrence wouldn’t be practicing if his neck were still an issue. Wake has been decimated by deep passes all season. That wont change here. I’d take Lawrence over Tua because all you get from Tua right now are touchdowns. Alabama hasn’t been tested, and they wont be this weekend either.

Taylor Cornelius ($8,400): Lost in the mostly stout Iowa State defense is how bad their secondary has actually been. They have been torched by teams this year that aren’t even usually passing teams. Oklahoma State is. We saw Cornelius put up big numbers against Kansas last week, but they could have been even bigger. That is where the risk lies here. If Cornelius misses on big plays downfield again, it might mean he doesn’t hit value. If he is running for his life like Robinson was against Iowa State last week, this could also be a bust for Cornelius.

Sam Ehlinger ($7,400): Oklahoma has trouble with running quarterbacks, so there is potential here. However, Ehlinger isn’t going to put up big numbers anywhere, so he is better for cash games at this point. However, Ehlinger has curbed his turnover problem, so just about anything he is doing at this point is a positive. At some point the Texas offense will get going. It may be here against an Oklahoma team that just gave up 33 to Baylor. That alone makes Ehlinger worth this price.

Bargain Shoppers:

N’Kosi Perry ($6,800): We just saw a Florida State defense struggle with a less talented freshman under center for Louisville, so to say Perry has a pretty high ceiling is an understatement. However, this game could go much like the Carolina game did last Thursday when we saw the Hurricanes throw the ball just 12 times. That is driving Perry’s price down, but I think Florida State could put up a little more of a fight, meaning Perry’s services should be needed a little more. I like the value here.

Zeb Noland ($5,600): Noland has 23.3 DraftKings points against Oklahoma earlier this year. While Akron and TCU were able to keep him under wraps, I doubt the Cowboys do. There is good potential here with Noland, especially when you consider he has one of the best receivers in college to throw the ball to. Noland looks like a steal at this price.

Peyton Ramsey ($4,900): $4,900 for a guy that is basically guaranteed to have upwards of 40 pass attempts seems cheap no matter what team he is playing. On top of that, Ramsey has run the ball 18 times in the last two games. We just saw another mobile quarterback give the Buckeyes fits last weekend on national TV. I see Ramsey having a strong game for this price point.

Top Tier:

Travis Etienne ($8,800): Etienne was the first Clemson back to record 200 yards and three touchdowns in a game since 2009. This is going to be the normal as Lawrence gets himself acclimated to full time starting. Wake’s defense hasn’t been good defending the run or the pass, so expect Etienne to have plenty of open lanes once again. Another 200 yard day wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Karan Higdon ($7,700): With Chris Evans out last week, Higdon racked up 30 carries. If Evans misses this week’s game, it will be more of the same for Higdon. Keep a close eye on this one. If Evans plays, Higdon likely wont even carry it 20 times. With Evans in, I’m out on Higdon. With Evans out, this is another strong week for Higdon.

J.K. Dobbins ($7,500): Penn State was able to shut down Dobbins rushing, but he had 61 yards receiving and did find the end zone twice. This is a much easier opponent this week. Dobbins should have plenty of room to run, and to put up big numbers again.

Middle Tier:

Mike Weber ($5,900): I’m not really opposed to using both Ohio State backs here. The Indiana defense, despite being improved over past years, still wont be able to handle this attack, specifically on the ground. This is a game where Ohio State can dominate the lines, so rushing yards should be pretty easy to come by for both backs here. Weber isn’t the playmaker that Dobbins is, but he isn’t priced like it either. There is solid value here.

Connor Heyward ($5,700): Heyward has been unable to separate himself from LaDarius Jefferson even with LJ Scott out. For that reason, this Michigan State backfield remains a crapshoot. Heyward will get the first chance to impress, but with Jefferson outrunning him against last week, how long will that leash be? Northwestern has a solid run D, so I’m not crazy about either one of them. However, the price is too low to just ignore.

Bargain Shoppers:

Kennedy McKoy ($5,000): McKoy looks really cheap against a Kansas defense that has really struggled against the run. The MountainGriers aren’t going to change their stripes, but McKoy usually sees around a dozen carries and 15 touches per game. He can do a whole lot of damage against this Kansas D even with somewhat limited touches.

Keaontay Ingram ($4,900): Oklahoma’s run defense has been pretty good, but Ingram has big play ability, and Texas likes to get him the ball on passing plays as well. If you are looking for a cheap dart and want to avoid the high ownership on McKoy, Ingram could be that. He is still splitting carries with Tre Watson, but Ingram is the guy in there on passing downs. Oklahoma has trouble with running quarterbacks. They also have trouble with running backs that don’t act like running backs, as in catching the ball out of the backfield. If taking a chance on a Texas back, Ingram is the one to target this week.

Kennedy Brooks ($4,200): How long are the Sooners going to keep letting Sermon average about 2.5 yards per carry and call a dozen QB runs per game? Brooks has run well when called upon, and his big game against Baylor last week should earn him more touches against Baylor. Sermon will still get first crack at everything, but if he struggles again, we could see Brooks fairly early. There is more potential with Brooks than anyone else in the OU backfield right now.

Top Tier:

Greg Dortch ($8,300): If you doubt just how good Dortch is, take this into consideration: Dortch is averaging 29.9 DraftKings points per game this year with a freshman quarterback throwing to him. Dortch will get his every game. It doesn’t even matter who the team is going against anymore.

Hollywood Brown ($7,700): How can a guy nicknamed Hollywood not step up on the biggest stage? Brown had a strong game against Texas last year even with target hogs Jeff Badet and Mark Andrews there. Expect a big game from Hollywood this weekend!

Tylan Wallace ($7,600): Wallace is the top target on a pass happy team. Only once has a FBS opponent held him under 20 DraftKings points (18.5 against Boise State). Wallace is averaging six catches for 108.1 yards and .6 touchdown receptions per game. I’m sure you can find some room for him against the Iowa State secondary.

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Middle Tier:

Gary Jennings ($7,500) and Marcus Simms ($7,200): Sills has been drawing the best defender from opposing teams as show last week when both Jennings and Simms destroyed the Texas Tech secondary. Sills had a pedestrian game. It’s hard to predict just who will get the targets and yards on this team, but if you pick the right one, you’re winning something. That’s how dangerous the West Virginia offense is.

Cee Dee Lamb ($6,800): The Texas secondary has had issues when quarterbacks have time to pass. Murray will be able to buy enough time even if the line doens’t hold up. The Longhorns have not faced a quarterback that is anywhere close to Murray’s caliber, so there is value available in the Oklahoma passing game.

Collin Johnson ($6,600): I expect at least one Texas receiver to have a big game this weekend. The problem is that I have no idea which one it will be. I think Lil’Jordan Humphrey is probably the better bet since it will likely be a speedy guy that makes Oklahoma trip over themselves whiles chasing them. It happened against Baylor. It will happen here too. However, Johnson is still a strong pick on sheer targets alone. Humphrey has more upside, but Johnson is much safer.

Bargain Shoppers:

Tee Higgins ($5,700): The Wake secondary is awful, so I expect a big game from some Clemson receiver. It should be Higgins, but he hauled in only four of ten targets last week. The ability is there for Higgins and so are the targets. That makes him a pretty enticing option in the value tier. However, it is worth noting that Amari Rodgers has caught 10 passes over the last two games, and catches a much higher percentage of passes. If you can’t afford Higgins, Rodgers is getting enough targets as well.

Steven Sims ($4,900): Sims caught eight passes last week, and also got a carry on a jet sweep that resulted in 23 yards. He is one of the emerging playmakers for Kansas, and the target volume alone makes him worth a look. Kansas is going to have to throw a lot more than they usually do to try and keep up here. Sims should be the major benefactor of that.

Nico Collins ($4,200): This Michigan passing attack has been nothing to write home about, but Collins was a huge bright spot last week. With Tarik Black out, Coliins stepped up with six receptions, nearly doubling his season total. With Black out again, expect Collins to have another big game against a pretty bad Maryland secondary.

Nick Westbrook ($3,900): There is value in the Indiana passing game since they will be trying to play catch up all week. Westbrook is the most expensive receiver, and though he has failed to match last year’s production as of yet, Westbrook is seeing more targets lately. J-Shun Harris has caught 13 of 15 passes over the last two games, and is worth a look as well at just $3,300.

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