NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday October 5

Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Taking a look back at Thursday Night’s two game NBA DFS slate, there was little room for error and a ton of line-up overlay as the James Harden/Chris Paul/Victor Oladipo trip was nearly universally owned. Once we got confirmation that both Lonzo Ball and Rajon Rondo would be out, Brandon Ingram became a core play as the Lakers PG and he delivered with a slate high 54.5 fantasy points on the back of 31 points and 10 rebounds. The real low-owned treat was T.J. Leaf who was largely ignored despite his punt price and starting assignment and he ended the night behind only Ingram and Harden in fantasy points scored.

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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

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As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Top Guard Plays:

Now we are talking! We have a nice seven game slate to kick-off this NBA DFS weekend and with preseason contests up on FantasyDraft, I can dive into a more traditional position by position format when breaking down Picks and Pivots.

If you are new to playing on FantasyDraft, the biggest and best difference in my opinion is that massive position flexibility – you need to roster 3 Guards, 3 Forward/Centers and 2 Utility Players. This is a totally different kind of format than you may be used to on FanDuel or DraftKings where you get forced to play guys you don’t want to just because you need to fill certain positions.

Looking at the Guard landscape tonight, you will see a ton of high-end names like Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook and Devin Booker but unfortunately we will have to wait until the Regular Season to roster these fine gents as all three will be sitting out this evening.

With Westbrook out tonight, expect Dennis Schroder ($14.1K) to continue to run the show at point for OKC after a stellar 21 point, 9 assist, 5 rebound outing over 27 minutes in his first game on Wednesday. Schroder sported a 35.7% usage rate in that game but it is worth noting that Paul George also missed Wednesday’s contest and will be back in action tonight, meaning a dip in the usage should occur but Schroder has proven he can rack up stats when given the playing time.

Whenever Curry is out, the likely thought process is that someone like Klay Thompson ($12.7K) becomes a must play but we saw last season that while Klay’s usage take a slight bump with Curry/Draymond off the court, his FP/M output remains completely unchanged. Understanding Klay’s catch and shoot style, this should not come as a total shock as he thrives allowing others to draw defenders and kick to him for long-range looks so while he is a nice play here with 20-25 minutes of court time expected, I would not say he is a must play.

The New Orleans Pelicans play their third preseason game of the season tonight in New York and considering they are playing at the second fastest pace of any team this preseason, this is a team we are going to want to get exposure to early and often this year. Without DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo, this new look Pelicans team has added Elfrid Payton and Julius Randle to the starting rotation but it looks like Randle is doubtful to play tonight due to injury which could open up even more playing time and usage.

We saw last year when Boogie and Rondo were off the floor that Jrue Holiday ($14K) become a usage monster, with a 6% usage bump, sporting a 30% usage rate and 1.32 FP/M so it is interesting that through two games this preseason, he only has a 21% usage rate. It is certainly possible he is making a more concerted effort to involve his new teammates and defer to others in the offense but I will side with the larger sample size here and the fact Randle is likely to miss this game and simply play Holiday in this spot.

Elfrid Payton ($12.5K) is a multi-category DFS juggernaut when his game is on as we have seen him rack up 8 rebounds in his first game and 7 assists in his second game, and it is that kind of upside that makes him one of my favorite plays when you factor in his reduced price. Coach Alvin Gentry seems to be hinting that this third preseason game could be a dress rehearsal for the regular season with more “normal” rotations so I have a ton of interest in general with the Pelicans starters against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden tonight.

With the Pelicans rolling out a “regular season” rotation tonight, do not overlook the stacking potential of running it back with the Knicks who have played at the 7th fastest pace of play through two games this season. Kevin Knox ($12.1K) was massively owned after his first game break-out and remains locked into 20-25 minutes in the starting line-up and we saw Tim Hardaway Jr. (12.1K) slide into a high usage/volume roll last game against the Nets – although he struggled with his shot, the double-digit shot attempts are exactly what we want to see.

The player that I want to keep an eye on tonight is Frank Ntilkina ($9.1K) who has come off the bench the first two games behind Trey Burke, but it is obvious that he has a chance to enter the Knicks starting line-up.

"“Frank still has a chance to start,” Fizdale said. “That was just for that game that was his group and I thought that second half, that group that started the half, they really did a great job of getting us off to a good start. Like I said again, nothing is in stone from that standpoint. I’m just going to keep trying to build the main guys up that I know are going to be in the rotation and then we’re going to figure out that starting lineup at the very end.”"

As always – follow me on Twitter @2LockSports – I will pass along any and all line-up news as I see it come across and if Franky Nickels is in the starting line-up, he makes for an exceptional value play against two poor back-court defenders in Elf and Holiday.

NBA DFS – Top Forward and Center Plays:

Let’s just cut to the chase here – the first player in your line-up tonight needs to be Kevin Durant ($15.3K).

The Warriors will be without Steph Curry and Draymond Green, a scenario last season that saw Durant’s usage spike over 7% to a team high 39.4% usage rate while putting up 1.5 FP/M. Now, add in the fact that this exhibition game will be played in Seattle, where Durant started his career and you can understand why Steve Kerr is saying this game is ALL. ABOUT. KEVIN. We also have confirmation that Durant is going to be wearing Sonics green sneakers for the game – this is the narrative you simply jump all over – this is going to be a KD love fest in Seattle tonight and I want in!

With Draymond Green out, I would expect we see Jordan Bell ($10K) enter the starting line-up and we have seen countless times with Bell that when given the minutes, he has massive upside. With Curry/Green off the floor last season, Bell was a fantasy point per minute player and his complimentary style fits in perfectly if we expect the Warriors to feature Kevin Durant – making this a nice 1-2 frontcourt Warriors stack to build around.

As mentioned, Russell Westbrook will not play tonight which means Paul George ($14.6K) should pick up a ton of usage as we saw last season, PG13 had a massive 40% usage rate when Westbrook/Melo were off the court – making him one of the best plays on the entire slate.

The Atlanta Hawks could be another nice source of value tonight as they look to be multiple men down and their pace of play against the Pelicans in their first game was the fastest such pace of any team in the NBA thus far in the preseason.

With Dedmon and Prince out, expect more of John Collins ($12.9K) and DeAndre’ Bembry ($9.4K) who led the Hawks in scoring with 18 and 20 points respectively. With the increased pace of play you could easily extend a Hawks stack here to include rookie PG Trae Young ($12.5K) and even Jeremy Lin ($8.7K) who practiced alongside Young yesterday and the Hawks have said they may give them a look on Friday alongside each other in game action. Hawks Coach Lloyd Pierce did not name a starter but Tyler Dorsey ($9K) ran with the starters in practice and would make for a nice salary saving option here tonight.

NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:

The sample line-up below is meant for illustrative purposes ONLY after reading through the logic laid out in this article. This is not intended to be a plug and play NBA DFS line-up and my actual line-ups may differ from those shown here. 

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G: Jrue Holiday ($14K)

G: Frank Ntilkina ($9.1K)

G: Trae Young ($12.5K)

F/C: Kevin Durant ($15.3K)

F/C: Anthony Davis ($14.7K)

F/C: Paul George ($14.6K)

UTIL: DeAndre Bembry ($9.4K)

UTIL: Alex Len ($10.4K)

Slate Overview: Doing a NBA DFS preseason sample line-up at 6AM EST is pretty much impossible since we have so much news we need to sort through before we can really lock in, but there are a couple guiding principles you can take away from this build.

First and foremost – you can lock in the stars with guaranteed minutes and increased usage due to their teammates missing games – so Kevin Durant and Paul George are priority plays and pairing them with Anthony Davis in the front court is a trio that could carry you through the cash line on their own.

Finding value is going to be key to make this build work and that is where the Knicks and Hawks come in. If Frank Ntilkina cracks the starting line-up, I love his upside at only $9K and keep an eye on what the Hawks roll out as with injuries to Dedmon/Prince – it should open up added minutes for guys like Len, Bembry and Dorsey (as a pivot off Ntilkina at the same price point).

Best of luck and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft and all your favorite sites each and every day.