College Football picks against the spread October 6, 2018

IRVING, TX – OCTOBER 16: A detail view of the College Football Playoff logo shown during a press conference on October 16, 2013 in Irving, Texas. Condoleezza Rice, Stanford University professor and former United States Secretary of State, was chosen to serve as one of the 13 members that will select four teams to compete in the first playoff at the end of the 2014 season. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

College Football picks against the spread October 6, 2018

It’s that time of week again! Time for a huge college football Saturday with 51 more FBS vs. FBS games. A few teams are off, but at least we have fewer and fewer teams stepping out to beat on FCS opponents. Some still get teams that resemble FCS opponents though.

More from College Football Odds

This is my favorite time of the week. The time when I get to really dive into the spread for the most accurate readings. You know you really love something when you would do it even if no one read it. Back when I first started this on a previous site, I had maybe ten views per week. I still put just as much time and effort into it.

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! A solid week 5 kept me above .500 on the season at 129-125 overall. I did lose two betting points on the week, but I do have 12 on the season to play with and 32 in my all time bank.

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 6!

EVANSTON, IL – SEPTEMBER 29: John Moten IV #20 of the Northwestern Wildcats is stopped by Chase Winovich #15 of the Michigan Wolverines at Ryan Field on September 29, 2018 in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

(1)Alabama(-35.5) at Arkansas(4):

Bama could cover this with their second string. The Piggies had a good showing in the rivalry game against A&M last week, but that may be the highlight of their season. It’s back to the blowouts now. Give me Aladamnbama.

(19)Texas vs. (7)Oklahoma at Dallas(2):

If they ever move this game to Jerry World, I will seriously quit college football all together. This game needs to be played at the Cotton Bowl during the State Fair from now until the end of time. And one day before the end of my time, I will get to experience it. Even if I’m 90 and can’t walk. It will happen. Just not this year. I almost never bet this game unless the line seems out of whack. It doesn’t this year. It has been volleying between -7 and -7.5, which is about where I would put the line if I made these. This is going to be a high scoring affair, but this is easily the best offense Texas has had to deal with this year. However, this has to stay within one score. I originally thought Oklahoma would cover, but I changed it late before kickoff.

Kansas at (9)West Virginia(-27.5)(2):

This line really doesn’t seem out of whack. I do like seeing the Kansas offense with some signs of life. I’m glad the bottom of the Big 12(10) is somewhat competitive this year. That said, the Kansas defense is still not very good, and West Virginia may have the most explosive offense in the country. I’m going the MountainGriers again.

Maryland at (15)Michigan(-17.5)(1):

I just don’t trust this Michigan offense. Aside from dominating Nebraska, they have struggled to move the ball when they can’t run. That said, Maryland is set up a lot like Nebraska. Decent offense, little defense. I’ll go Michigan I guess, but I really don’t like that half.

Northwestern at (20)Michigan State(-10.5)(5):

Wow, this is too many. I wouldn’t be shocked if Northwestern won outright. If they don’t, I still think this definitely stays a one score game. Give me Northwestern.

Tulane at Cincinnati(-7.5)(2)

This is a tough one. Both teams are playing pretty well right now. Tulane has definitely been better at home, but I don’t like the half. I’m still taking the Bearcats at home, I’m just going to lower the bet.

Buffalo(-7.5) at Central Michigan(4):

This is exactly what I hoped would happen. Buffalo gets trampled by Army, then underestimated against a 1-4 Central Michigan team. Buffalo is going to win by a lot!

Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan(-4.5)(1):

This is always a tough game. These two really don’t like each other. This is a rivalry, MAC style. Some of the best games last week were in the MAC. Here’s another. This is going to be close, but I still think I like the Eagles straight up.

East Carolina at Temple(-10.5)(2):

This looks a touch high. Temple is almost impossible to pick this year. They have been really high, pounding Maryand. They also lost to Villanova. I think this stays a one score game. Give me the Pirates.

Missouri(-1.5) at South Carolina(1 or 3):

Vegas doesn’t know what to do with this line either. It opened with South Carolina favored. Now it is as high as -3 for Mizzou to pick em, and that’s just in Vegas. You can probably find just about any number you want for this game up to three points either side. I don’t really want anything to do with this one. Missouri hasn’t been a great road team in the SEC, but it’s hard to ignore how average South Carolina has looked. Give me Missouri. UPDATE: Jake Bentley is doubtful for this one. If he’s out, I’ll take Missouri with a three point bet.

Illinois(-4.5) at Rutgers(2):

This line jumped dramatically on Monday. It opened at even in most spots and at -1.5 at Wynn. This line still isn’t high enough. I have little faith in the Illinois offense, but Rutgers is Grade-A awful. Give me the Illini.

Syracuse(-3.5) at Pittsburgh(3):

I’m not sure why this line is falling. I guess most are expecting Clemson hangover. Syracuse is the better team. Pitt’s only real chance is to run with Ollison and control the clock. They may do that, but I still think the Orange win. I’ll take Syracuse.

Boston College at (23)North Carolina State(-5.5)(3):

This becomes a pretty easy pick if AJ Dillon is out. Boston College isn’t offering much in the way of his status, but I tend to think he’s not going to play. I’ll take NC State regardless, but if Dillon is out there, I’m lowering the bet.

Northern Illinois(-2.5) at Ball State(4):

This line is half of what it opened at, and I still don’t get it. Ball State could have the best offense in the MAC, and they are at home. I’ll take the Letterman’s straight up. This is a NIU team that got pulverized by a Florida State offense that can’t move the Ball. The Cardinals should torch them!

BATON ROUGE, LA – SEPTEMBER 29: running back Nick Brossette #4 of the LSU Tigers runs onto the field at the start of the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Tiger Stadium on September 29, 2018 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Marianna Massey/Getty Images) /

(4)Clemson(-20.5) at Wake Forest(2):

The Wake defense doesn’t look very good, but this still looks high. Trevor Lawrence is back for Clemson, but I still think this offense is less explosive than it was with Bryant in there. I’ll take Wake.

(5)LSU(-2.5) at (22)Florida(4):

That Florida defense is as advertised, and LSU is going to have problems moving the ball. However, so long as LSU can keep the Florida defense out of the end zone, the offense wont score. I’ll take the Tigers.

Florida State at (17)Miami(FL)(-13.5)(3):

The more I look at this, the more I think Florida State is going to get embarrassed. This is still a rivalry so I’m keeping the bet modest, but I would be very surprised if the Seminoles keep it one score game, let alone won outright. Miami by around 20 or so.

Iowa State at (25)Oklahoma State(-9.5)(2):

Again, this Iowa State team is fundamentally sound, and has had the Cowboys’ number lately. It’s hard to count moral victories since the Cyclones made a bowl last year, but this team has played tough and sound all year. I’ll take Iowa State to keep it a one score game again.

Ohio(-12.5) at Kent State(2):

The Ohio offense is finally starting to get going, but anything goes on the road in the MAC. I know Ohio can cover, but I’m not all that convinced they will. I’ll take the Soliches for a smaller bet.

Miami(OH) at Akron(-4.5)(3):

The Redhawks offense will keep them in this, but I ultimately think their defense lets it get away. I’ll take Akron at home for anything under a TD.

Navy(-2.5) at Air Force(3):

Anything goes in rivalries, but Navy has looked like the far better team so far. I still don’t think they beat Army, but this looks low for Air Force. I’ll take the Middies.

Bowling Green at Toledo(-21.5)(4):

I don’t particularly like the half, but Bowling Green is the worst team in the MAC, and it’s really not close. The Falcons are 0-4 against the spread against FBS opponents, and only Miami of Ohio beat them by less than 30.

South Alabama at Georgia Southern(-11.5)(2):

The Jaguars have been cover bait for everyone, especially on the road. I’ll take the Eagles.

San Diego State at Boise State(-13.5)(3):

The Aztecs are missing both Christian Chapman and Juwan Washington. The defense is still going to try and keep the ball out of the hands of the playmakers, but I’m not sure the Aztec offense can hang on to the ball long enough to keep the defense fresh. I’ll take Boise on the Smurf Turf.

South Florida(-14.5) at Massachusetts(3):

Massachusetts has been better at home, but not enough to hang with the Bulls. This is a different South Florida team without Quintin Flowers, but Blake Barnett is becoming a beast in his own right. I’ll take the Bulls.

Kansas State at Baylor(-4.5)(3):

The K-State defense looked better last week, but Baylor just has too many athletes for the Wildcats to keep under wraps. Baylor could win this by double digits. Give me the Bears.

Iowa(-6.5) at Minnesota(3):

This Minnesota offense has really struggled without Rodney Smith. Trying to beat a defense like Iowa without your workhorse back and using a true freshman at quarterback is extremely difficult, even at home. I’ll go with Iowa.

Indiana at (3)Ohio State(-27.5)(2):

This looks a little high to me. Indiana has a solid offense and a mobile quarterback. That is what gouged Ohio State last weekend. Ohio State wins, but by closer to 20 than 30.

Arizona State at (21)Colorado(-2.5)(3):

This looks low. Arizona State can score with the best of them, and they will have to because their defense isn’t any better than Colorado’s. That said, I’ll still take the Ralphies for under a field goal at home.

Louisiana-Monroe at Mississippi(-22.5)(1):

I hate lines like this. Especially after seeing the Rebels against a few SEC teams so the offense looks bad. Monroe is about a half notch above horrid on defense. I think I have to take Ole Miss.

New Mexico at UNLV(-9.5)(1):

Just because the Lobos got kicked around by a pretty good Liberty team at home doesn’t mean they’ll lose by double digits in Vegas. I’ll take New Mexico, especially with Armani Rogers still out.

Old Dominion at Florida Atlantic(-13.5)(2):

I’m not sure that Old Dominion can keep Singletary from running wild. I’ll say they can’t. Give me the Owls.

SAN DIEGO, CA – NOVEMBER 05: John Ursua #45 of the Hawaii Rainbows cannot control possesion in the second half as Damontae Kazee #23 of the San Diego State Aztecs prepares to intercept the ball in Qualcomm Stadium on November 5, 2016 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images) /

SMU at (12)Central Florida(-24.5)(3):

SMU has a defense that would make Big 12(10) teams blush. This actually looks low. UCF wins BIG!

(13)Kentucky at Texas A&M(-5.5)(4):

I get that the Aggies are tough at home, but didn’t the Wildcats just win in a tough environment last weekend? The A&M run defense is good enough to stop Snell, and I’m not sure that Wilson can throw to win since he hasn’t really had to. That said, Kentucky is clearly a top 25 team. A&M is barely a top 40. Kentucky straight up.

UAB at Louisiana Tech(-9.5)(2):

UAB isn’t a bad team. I think this likely stays a one score game. Give me the Blazers.

UTSA at Rice(EVEN)(1):

This line looks dead on. Neither team is good, so I have to go with Rice at home with no confidence whatsoever.

Louisiana(-3.5) at Texas State(1):

Willie Jones looks like he is going to play, so I’ll take the Bobcats at home. Again, this is a sucker bet. Neither team is good enough to bet on anything happening with any kind of consistency. If for some reason Jones is out, I don’t trust the backups to win this and will go with Louisiana.

Connecticut at Memphis(-35.5)(2):

Getting blown out by a solid Cincinnati team is one thing. I don’t care how bad the offense is, Memphis’s defense is nowhere near good enough to cover a spread like that against any FBS team. I’ll take UConn.

Vanderbilt at (2)Georgia(-25.5)(4):

This line is dropping, and rightfully so. This Georgia offense is not built to cover massive spreads like this. Vanderbilt’s defense is decent enough to keep this under 20. Give me the Commodores.

(8)Auburn(-3.5) at Mississippi State(3):

Auburn’s defense is in the same class as Florida’s, and the offense, however horrible they have been, is still light years ahead of the Gators. Give me Auburn.

(10)Washington(-21.5) at UCLA(4):

Washington finally gets an easy defense so we can see how good that offense still is. The Huskies will have this covered by halftime.

Nebraska at (16)Wisconsin(-17.5)(2):

This line is down a full touchdown already, and could go even lower. In this instance, the bettors have it right. This Wisconsin offense really isn’t built to cover huge spreads, and the Nebraska offense looked pretty good last week. Taylor gets his 200, but the Badgers don’t cover. Maybe by that half.

North Texas(-27.5) at UTEP(3):

I was hoping this line would be down since the Mean Green got upset last week. I guess it is. Eh….it probably is. I fully expect the Mean Green to be back in the 50’s this week, and I doubt the Miners crack 20. Give me the Mean Green.

(6)Notre Dame(-6.5) at (24)Virginia Tech(3):

After seeing what the Irish did to Stanford last week, this looks low. I’m keeping the bet down because it is a road game, but Notre Dame’s offense looks very balanced and hard to stop right now. I’ll take the Irish.

Liberty(-3.5) at New Mexico State(5):

Way too low. The Flames complete the New Mexico sweep with a double digit win here for my lock of the week!

Washington State(-16.5) at Oregon State(3):

The Beavers are pretty bad. Wazzu is not. Give me the Leaches.

California(-2.5) at Arizona(2):

I don’t get all the Cal love going around right now. This offense is okay, but the defense doesn’t look that good at all. That said, Arizona’s defense is pretty bad. I’ll take Cal considering a bumbling USC offense beat the Wildcats at home last week.

Utah at (14)Stanford(-3.5)(2):

If Bryce Love is out, I could see Stanford losing this game. Even if he plays, this is a game that Stanford could lose. That said, the Utes don’t have anyone that can cover Arcega-Whiteside. I’ll take Stanford.

Colorado State(-2.5) at San Jose State(2):

The Spartans have bit me a couple of times in recent weeks. Can it really happen here? It can’t, right? I’m taking the Rams, but lowering the bet.

Fresno State(-14.5) at Nevada(4):

This looks low. That Fresno offense is for real, and the Nevada defense really can’t stop anyone. Give me the Bulldogs.

Wyoming at Hawaii(-2.5)(5):

Really? Hawaii is money on the islands, and this Wyoming offense is terrible. I seriously doubt that the Warriors can slow down this high flying Hawaii offense. I’ll take the Warriors.

dark. Next. ESPN College Pick Em Picks Week 6

We have another big slate with 56 games this week. I ended up betting more points this week. Will it pay off? I have six one pointers, 21 two pointers, 16 three pointers, ten four pointers, and three five pointers. That is my most three and four pointers on the season so far. Good luck out there! Let’s have another great football Saturday!