DraftKings Late CFB picks October 6: Do we dare fade Milton?

DraftKings gives us a solid seven game night slate on our Saturday. We have struggling offenses, high powered offenses, poor defenses, and everything in between. Where should we go with this? Let’s take a look!

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The night slate last Saturday was likely dominated by how much exposure you had to the Notre Dame offense and Trace McSorely.

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Top Tier:

McKenzie Milton ($11,200): Can we really fade Milton right now? He is averaging 39.2 DraftKings points per game, and that includes the poor game against South Carolina State. In the four games vs. FBS opponents, Milton has 41.84, 53.34, and 49.22 DraftKings points. Add to that just how bad this SMU defense has been, and, well, I think we have to have Milton to cash. There are enough other bargains to afford Milton without sacrificing much production.

Ian Book ($9,400): Book had a big game against a pretty good Stanford defense, so I’m not all that worried about Virginia Tech. Duke didn’t really have the passing game to get behind the Virginia Tech defense, but Notre Dame sure does. The Hokies are only a week removed from getting completely exposed by Old Dominion. I haven’t forgotten. We will see how many have by the ownership on Book.

Middle Tier:

Jake Browning ($8,600): Browning only had two incompletions in the win over BYU last weekend, but he still didn’t tip the scales in DraftKings scoring. The 21.5 DraftKings points are a solid total, and were for his price last weekend. However, at this price, this is a tough sell. I know UCLA’s defense is horrible. I get it. That just means Gaskin will get more carries. Browning will have another solid game, but he’s probably not going to give us what we want for the price.

William Brown ($6,600): SMU is going to have to throw a lot to try and keep up. Maybe even more than usual. Brown is still relatively new as a starter, so his arm is going to be working overtime in this one. Central Florida’s pass defense numbers aren’t all that great because everyone has at least tried to keep up with them. Brown doesn’t need a huge game at this price to give you something for the money, but you may just get it anyway!

Bargain Shoppers:

Terry Wilson ($5,400): Wilson doesn’t have much for passing numbers, but the fact that he can make plays with his legs gives him a pretty high floor. A&M’s defense is pretty good, but I have a feeling the Aggies are going to key on Snell and try to make Wilson throw. For this low of a price, Wilson is worth a look since he should be used as a passer more than usual.

Top Tier:

Jonathan Taylor ($9,900): There’s a long list of Wisconsin backs that have destroyed Nebraska’s run defense. Taylor joined the ranks with 249 rushing yards against Nebraska last season, setting his career high. That puts him up there with Melvin Gordon, James White, and Montee Ball, who all went for 200 or more on Nebraska. Gordon went for more than double 200 yards in just three quarters back in 2014! What I’m trying to say is Taylor is going to have another huge game, and you need him to cash.

Myles Gaskin ($7,700): If you look at Washington’s opponents so far, it’s a who’s who of great run stopping defenses. Gaskin will finally have room to run in this one against UCLA, who is among FBS’s worst. Benny Snell is going against a top 25 run defense in A&M, so I would rather save the cash and go with Gaskin to have his first big game of the year. It’s coming!

Middle Tier:

Dexter Williams ($6,700): The Irish found their missing link in Williams, who missed the first four games of the season. The passing game really took off with Book under center. We saw the run game really take off with Williams running 21 times for 161 yards against Stanford. All of the sudden, the Irish have a balanced offense to go with that solid defense. Williams for this price looks like a bargain.

Kam Martin ($6,300): I’m only excited about Martin if Whitlow misses the game. Otherwise this backfield situation is too much of a committee to mess with. If Martin has the show to himself, he is worth a look even against the solid Bulldog defense at this price. There just isn’t much in this range to get excited about tonight. I think I like the bargain tier better, honestly.

Bargain Shoppers:

Devine Ozigbo ($4,900): The Nebraska offense looked solid against Purdue last week. A big reason for that was because the coaching staff finally let Ozigbo loose. Ozigbo has had some ball security issues in the past, but he showed up and immediately impressed the new staff with the added muscle, and he is taking much better care of the ball. With Greg Bell out the picture permanently now, expect Ozigbo to see a lot of carries in this one. More than enough for him to hit value, even against a solid run defense.

Taiwan Deal ($4,100): Nebraska’s run defense has been so bad that I have no issues using Deal here as well. Deal is only getting a handful of carries per week spelling Taylor, but this is his best chance to bust one loose. Deal ran for 42 yards last week on just six carries. The low carries is a risk, but against this run defense, it is a good way to get upside in a GPP. Of course, fullback Alec Ingold has poached a touchdown in three straight weeks, so you could go that route as well.

Top Tier:

Gabriel Davis ($7,300): Davis is still getting more targets than any other UCF receiver, but he caught less than half of them last week against Pitt. Still, Davis found the end zone and went for 80 yards, so us DraftKings players didn’t really notice. SMU’s secondary is terrible, so Davis is in line for a huge game if he can secure a decent number of the hefty targets thrown his way.

Aaron Fuller ($7,200): Fuller has been putting up pretty strong numbers against pretty strong teams. He finally gets a break with a porous UCLA defense. I kind of have a feeling that the Huskies want to get Gaskin going, so they may not throw a lot here. I wont have much exposure to Fuller, but the potential is here for a really big game if the Huskies decide to air it out a little.

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Middle Tier:

Miles Boykin ($6,400): Book found his favorite receiver on Saturday. Boykin hauled in 11 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown against a pretty good Stanford defense. Boykin is the kind of receiver that can get behind the Hokie secondary the way Old Dominion did. There is loads of potential here.

James Proche ($6,300): Meet the 2018 version of Courtland Sutton. Proche isn’t that good yet, but if SMU has any chance of keeping up against the Knights, Proche is going to have to catch double digit passes. Don’t worry, he’s done it before. He is the best receiver SMU has, and I think they’re going to be chucking it a lot on Saturday night, so there could be some nice value here.

Bargain Shoppers:

JD Spielman ($5,000): Spielman was the target hog for Nebraska last weekend. He is going to have problems getting open against Wisconsin, but more than that, the Nebraska line needs to keep Wisconsin off of Martinez. If Martinez has some time to throw, I see Spielman having a solid game. If this goes like the Michigan game, Spielman may not catch a pass. If it’s the former though, Spielman could be a sneaky value play. He caught 10 passes last week against Purdue.

Jack Stoll ($3,000): Using the Nebraska tight end may not be a horrible idea, especially at the minimum price, against Wisconsin. If Martinez is running for his life, Stoll could find himself open in the flat like he did against Purdue. Stoll was able to have a solid game last weekend. If he catches two or three passes, you’ve got yourself some pretty good value for the minimum price. Of course, Stoll has gone without a catch in one game, and only had one is two others. There is significant risk here.

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