NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 5 2018

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 5 (Sun.-Mon.)

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of the NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where there may be some mispriced players across Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft in favorable matchups.

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!

• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.

• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.

• These players are but a sampling of who I feel are some of the best values at each position that week. However, with so many skills players in the NFL, there are certainly others worth considering, especially as late-breaking injury news comes out Sunday morning. Therefore, feel free to utilize this piece as a good guide for where some of the most prominent value lies, but not as an exhaustive list.

• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 5 slates!

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 5 (Sun.-Mon.) Quarterbacks

Blake Bortles, JAC at KC- Yahoo ($27)/ FanDuel ($7,000)/ DraftKings ($5,500)/ FantasyDraft ($10,600)

Bortles has put up no less than 33 attempts in any game this season, including 34 and 45, respectively, in the two games Leonard Fournette has missed completely. The stud running back will be missing again in Week 5 due to a hamstring injury, putting Bortles squarely in the spotlight in a game that could certainly turn into a higher-scoring one the Jags are used to, given the opponent.

In such a case, Bortles becomes a high-upside play, considering the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points (26.5) and FanDuel points (25.0) per game to quarterbacks. Bortles’ current 7.3 YPA is just a hair below his career high of 7.31, while his 93.6 rating is the best of his career. He already has 376- and 388-yard efforts on his resume this season, and in a game where he may have to remain aggressive once again, he makes for an especially intriguing tournament play.

Ryan Tannehill, MIA at CIN- Yahoo ($26)/ FanDuel ($6,600)/ DraftKings ($5,200)/ FantasyDraft ($10,200)

Tannehill is likely to go low-owned in tournaments this week with good reason, considering his abysmal showing against the Patriots in a Week 4 blowout loss. However, he’s once again priced to move, and he’ll face a considerably softer matchup this week. Cincinnati checks in allowing the fifth-most DraftKings points (27.5) and tied with the Chiefs for fourth-most FanDuel points (25.0) allowed per game to the quarterback position.

Tannehill has provided some nice supplemental rushing production in two games already this season (44 and 26 yards in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively) and could certainly repeat the feat against a Cincinnati team that’s already allowed a pair of rushing touchdowns and 62 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. The Bengals’ nine passing touchdowns allowed also rank them in the bottom half of the league, furthering Tannehill’s case.

Joe Flacco, BAL at CLE- Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($7,200)/ DraftKings ($5,400)/ FantasyDraft ($10,600)

Flacco continues to be underpriced for a player that’s already thrown for 376 and 363 yards, respectively, in a pair of contests this season. The strong-armed veteran seems rejuvenated with a trio of new wide receivers in Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead at his disposal, and this week could also bring the regular-season debut of rookie Hayden Hurst (foot).

Much like Bortles, Flacco has been much more aggressive in the early going, as his 7.32 YPA is the second-highest of his career and blows last season’s 5.72 out of the water. He also already has eight touchdowns after having mustered a modest 18 over 16 games last season. The Browns have looked considerably improved with Gregg Williams at the helm of their defense this season, but they just gave up 437 yards to Derek Carr in Week 4 and 335 yards in the opener to Ben Roethlisberger, so they can be targeted with success.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. MIN- FanDuel ($7,500)/ DraftKings ($5,800)/ FantasyDraft ($11,200)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 5 (Sun.-Mon.) Running Backs
 

Joe Mixon, CIN vs. MIA- Yahoo ($26)/ FanDuel ($7,100)/ DraftKings ($6,900)/ FantasyDraft ($13,300)

Mixon’s return to the lineup couldn’t be more timely, considering that backup Giovani Bernard — who did an excellent job in Mixon’s stead during the latter’s absence due to a knee injury — will be sidelined Sunday. That should give Mixon a boatload of work right from the jump, as the only other running back besides him and Bernard that have logged any carries this season is rookie Mark Walton — who has a grand total of four.

The Dolphins’ secondary has been mostly impressive this season (last week’s disaster versus New England notwithstanding), but they’ve been more vulnerable on the ground. Miami has allowed four rushing touchdowns (tied with several teams for third-most in the league) and is also tied with the Chiefs for fourth-most receptions allowed to the running back position (31). On the latter note, it’s worth noting that Mixon saw a robust seven targets in his one injury-shortened game this season (the opener versus the Colts).

T.J. Yeldon, JAC at KC- Yahoo ($22)/ FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($5,600)/ FantasyDraft ($10,500)

Yeldon will get the starting call this week (and potentially for the next several) with Leonard Fournette out with a hamstring injury, and he walks into an excellent matchup against the Chiefs. As just mentioned in Mixon’s entry, KC has allowed the fourth-most receptions to the running back position (31), and they’ve allowed a whopping 5.5 yards per carry to the position as well.

Yeldon’s pass-catching skills are above question, and he’s seen between five and seven targets in three of four games this season. He’s posted between three and six receptions and logged double-digit carries in three of four contests as well, and a similar workload is very likely in a game that he’ll serve as the No. 1 running back in from the start.

Aaron Jones, GB at DET- Yahoo ($19)/ FanDuel ($6,100)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($9,100)

Jones can still be had for a relative pittance across the industry, although that’s likely to change in coming weeks if he continues to build on his production from the first two weeks. The second-year back has hit the ground running following his season-opening two-game suspension, averaging an impressive 6.3 yards on his 17 carries thus far. Encouragingly, he saw his carries jump from six in his Week 3 debut to 11 last Sunday against the Bills.

He could hardly walk into a better matchup, as the Lions are allowing an NFL-worst 157.8 rushing yards per contest through the first four weeks. That’s led to them surrendering the fourth-most DraftKings points (35.7) and third-most FanDuel points (30.8) per game to running backs, a vulnerability that Jones is amply capable of capitalizing on. Moreover, if either or both Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison (concussion) miss the game, Jones could be relied on to the tune of 15-18 carries.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Kerryon Johnson, DET vs. GB- Yahoo ($19)/ FanDuel ($6100)/ DraftKings ($4,600)/ FantasyDraft ($10,300)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 5 (Sun.-Mon.) Wide Receivers

Jordy Nelson, OAK at LAC- Yahoo ($23)/ FanDuel ($5,600)/ DraftKings ($4,500)/ FantasyDraft ($8,800)

Nelson has amassed eight targets apiece over the last two games after a slow start to his Raiders tenure that had led to whispers he was essentially done. The veteran has proven the doubters wrong by finding the end zone in each of the last pair of contests, and he showed he still has an impressive ceiling by touching up the Dolphins for 173 yards and a score on six receptions in Week 3.

The ineptitude of the Raiders defense is such that their offense is forced to remain aggressive, which naturally bodes well for their skill players. Nelson is still priced very cheaply across the industry and will likely avoid the coverage of Casey Hayward in Week 5, who’s projected to spend plenty of time shadowing Amari Cooper. That figures to leave Nelson in quite a few matchups against Trevor Williams, which he should be able to win a good amount of the time. It bears noting the Chargers have been very susceptible to the receiver position all season, allowing 50 of 72 targets to be caught for 705 yards and eight touchdowns — leading to 45.6 DraftKings and 37.8 FanDuel points per game allowed to the position.

John Brown, BAL at CLE- Yahoo ($22)/ FanDuel ($6,200)/ DraftKings ($5,600)/ FantasyDraft ($11,400)

Brown boasts a whopping average depth of target of 22.1 yards, easily the highest among any player in the league with double-digit targets through the first four weeks. The speedster is providing a reminder of what he’s capable of when fully healthy every week, as he’s posted between 86 and 116 receiving yards in each of the last three games. He’s gotten the volume as well, logging between seven and 10 targets in that stretch.

Meanwhile, the Browns are tied with multiple teams for eight-most receptions allowed to receivers (60), and they’ve allowed a robust 42.9 DraftKings and 33.1 FanDuel points per game to the position. The Ravens have a solid projected total in excess of 24 points in this game, furthering Brown’s case as Flacco’s best deep threat.

Dede Westbrook, JAC at KC- Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($5,900)/ DraftKings ($4,700)/ FantasyDraft ($9,200)

Westbrook provides you some cost-effective exposure to the Jaguars passing attack in a game that it could once again play a prominent role. As discussed previously in Bortles’ entry, KC has been welcoming to opposing air attacks, and Westbrook arguably provides the best tournament upside of the trio of himself, Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief.

That much was evident in Week 4, when Westbrook lit up the Jets for nine catches, 130 yards and a touchdown. Westbrook has seen a solid 28 targets thus far, and in a game that we expect Jacksonville to have to put the ball up to keep pace with the elite Chiefs offense, he should get plenty of attention against a secondary that’s allowed 60 receptions to the receiver position through four games, along with averages of 40.4 DraftKings points and 31.2 FanDuel points

ALSO CONSIDER:

Cameron Meredith, NO vs. WAS- Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($4,900)/ DraftKings ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft ($6,500)

NFL DFS Bargain Bin- Week 5 (Sun.-Mon.) Tight Ends/Team Defenses

Tight Ends

Jared Cook, OAK at LAC- Yahoo ($21)/ FanDuel ($5,900)/ DraftKings ($4,800)/ FantasyDraft ($9,200)

Cook came through as one of our value suggestions last week, posting a 8-110-2 line in an overtime shootout against the Browns. He’s already seen double-digit targets in half of the first four games, the type of volume that you’ll take from a tight end any time you can get it. Moreover, a Chargers defense that’s allowed 14.1 yards per grab to the position through the first quarter of the season dovetails perfectly with Cook’s impressive 13.8 yards per reception on his 27 catches thus far.

Ricky Seals-Jones, SF vs. ARI- Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($5,100)/ DraftKings ($2,900)/ FantasyDraft ($5,600)

He’s sure to have ownership in the single digits, he’s cheap and he’s in a very good matchup — that about sums up the case for Seals-Jones as a value tournament play this week. The talented second-year player posted a 2-52 line on four targets against the Seahawks in Week 4, and although we’d like to see more volume, he’s undoubtedly still developing a rapport with rookie quarterback Josh Rosen. Meanwhile, the 49ers have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points (16.7) and fifth-most FanDuel points (13.7) per game to tight ends this season, along with a robust 12.1 yards per grab to the position that jives well with Seals-Jones’ average depth of target of 9.5 yards.

Team Defense

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)– Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($3,800)/ DraftKings ($3,000)/ FantasyDraft ($6,400)

Having just talked up Seals-Jones, I still like the overall prospects of the 49ers defense against a rookie quarterback at home. San Francisco has multiple sacks in three of the first four games, along with one defensive touchdown and a pair of fumble recoveries. The Cardinals have allowed eight quarterback takedowns on their end, and they’re also sporting the lowest average yards per attempt (5.4) in the NFL.

With no truly reliable receiver options outside of Larry Fitzgerald, San Francisco has a pretty narrow range of players to primarily focus on stopping — Fitz and David Johnson (which is why I think Seals-Jones could sneak by them for a couple of receptions down the field).

The potential return to action of Richard Sherman (hamstring) could also certainly boost San Fran’s defense, while the rest of the secondary is as healthy as it’s been in a while. An anemic projected point total of 18 for Arizona makes one final case for the Niners as the cheap defense to own in Week 5.