DraftKings NFL Week 5 Ownership Projections

Every week of the NFL season, I will provide you with my projected ownership of each position for the DraftKings NFL main slate. These DraftKings NFL Week 5 Ownership projections are based on social trends, pricing, injury reports, match-ups and so on. Sources include beat reporters, weather reports, individual team injury reports, Pro Football Reference and FanShare Sports. 

For clarity, we will only be analyzing the main slate of the week (1PM and 4PM EST games) on DraftKings which includes the new version of the Millionaire Maker, Roman’s Fantasy Football Millionaire.

In this breakdown, I will identify who I believe are the chalk plays you can’t avoid and where you can find the best pivot plays.

Follow me on Twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for late breaking news that may affect ownership and chalk.

The best thing that can happen to your DraftKings NFL lineup is finding a low owned, high reward player who can separate you from the competition. There is no better feeling than seeing your top WR score two touchdowns and noticing he is only owned by 2% of the field.

This season, I will provide you with who I expect to be the highest owned players at each position along with some of the top expected performers with low ownership expectations. I will also provide my picks per position based on the ownership and pricing relationship and isolate a few hidden gems.

"A contrarian is a person that takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority."

One thing I will mention regularly is value or ‘hitting value’. What that means is a player scored enough fantasy points to be worth his price tag. What I consider to be value is landing in the ‘cash’ of a particular contest or tournament and making a profit off of your initial entry. The metric we use to discern the value is your players multiplier or Points/Price equation. For example, Player X costs $6700 and this week on DraftKings he managed to score 20.7 DK points. You would then take the point (20.7) and divide it by the players cost by moving a decimal over three spots from the right (stay with me). In this case, $6700 would turn into 6.7 or 6.7K. 20.7 DK Points divided by 6.7 would be 3.09, and that number signifies the ‘value’ of a player. Player X scored 3.09 times his cost.

On to Week 5 where a lot of the biggest names are off of the main slate having played on Thursday, Sunday Night or Monday. This is often where the real DFS players shine with a lack of obvious plays and we are here to help you

CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR QUARTERBACKS IN WEEK 5

Week 5 QBs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership

Top Tier (10% ownership or more)

• Matt Ryan

• Ben Roethlisberger

• Blake Bortles

Matt Ryan ($6600) is the third highest priced QB on the slate this Sunday as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in the premiere matchup on the 1 PM EST lineup. Despite their feverishly talented offenses, both teams have struggled to stay above water through 4 weeks. The Falcons (1-3) face a near must-win game against the Steelers (1-2-1) who are also teetering on the ropes. The Falcons face a tougher road ahead challenged by the Saints and Panthers who lie ahead of them in the NFC South while the Steelers stare down the barrel of a 3-1 Bengals team and a 3-1 Ravens scorching hot start.

This creates a scenario of a pair of desperate teams who had very high hopes for prolonged playoff runs. With this situation, the high profile QBs leading each team are among the top chalk for Week 5. The over/under is currently set at 57.5 which is the highest on the slate, leading the Raiders/Chargers game by 4 points.

Matt Ryan has enjoyed two straight weeks of over 374 yards passing (374 and 419) with 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Unfortunately for Ryan, his defense has faltered, losing both contests first against the Saints in overtime and then to the Bengals by 1 point last week. He has a 68.3% completion rate which would be his second highest in his career (68.6% in 2012) and he is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt which would also be the second highest in his career (9.3 ypa in 2016). He simply excels in match ups where he is expected to keep up with the opposing offense. He has also managed to groom the young Calvin Ridley to pair with Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu to create a stronger WR corps then he has had in years.

The Steelers are the second worst defense on DraftKings for opposing QBs allowing 31.1 DK points per game including 12 total passing touchdowns through 4 weeks. Ryan’s best two performances this season? Against the Saints (3rd worst, 29.9) and the Bengals (5th worst, 27.5). Surprisingly, Ryan has yet to throw 40 or more passes since Week 1 (43 attempts) as the Falcons have relied on Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith for upwards of 20 carries per game. Matt Ryan has faced the Steelers twice, 2010 and 2014, losing both contests.

On the other side, Ben Roethlisberger ($6900) is the highest priced QB on the main slate, the same price he was listed as when he submitted 41.98 DK points against the Chiefs. Ben has been a bit of an enigma this season, scoring 17 DK points or less in Weeks 1 and 4 and scoring 41.98 and 28.02 in weeks 2 and 3. In last weeks loss to the Ravens on Sunday Night, he registered 274 yards with 1 TD, 1 INT and only completed 57.45% of his passes. The pass attempts are there, throwing 41, 60, 38 and 47 over 4 games for the 3rd most combined on the season trailing only Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins.

Down only two spots from the Steelers, the Falcons are the fourth worst team against the QB on DraftKings, allowing an average of 28.5 DK points per game to the position. Similar to Ryan, Roethlisberger is very predictable, producing against poor defenses and struggling against the more talented units. Seems pretty obvious, but they are among the most consistent when it comes to that which can help a DFS player while sorting through the chalk and high cost options.

Blake Bortles ($5500) has sandwiched a pair of excellent performances around a dud in the last three weeks. He put up 36.54 DraftKings points against the Patriots in Week 2, 8.9 DK points against the Titans in Week 3 and 28.32 DK points in Week 4 against the the Jets. Bortles joins Andrew Luck as QBs who are often best rostered ‘naked’ (without a correlation pick) in your DFS lineups as they rarely have a WR or TE that they dial-in on. Facing a Chiefs team that is 6th worst against the QB on DraftKings, allowing 26.5 DK points per game, Bortles and the Jaguars have an opportunity to sit make a statement against the ‘favorite’ to make the Super Bowl out of the AFC at this current moment.

Missing one of the leagues top RBs for most of this season thus far in Leonard Fournette, Bortles has averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game this season, which eclipses his average of 32.68 passes per game in 2017. He is quite unpredictable however, going over 376 passing yards in 2 of the 4 games this season but also throwing for less than 177 yards in the other two contests. He does add some value with his feet, totaling 132 rushing yards this season.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk

As the weekend progresses and the Falcons/Steelers game hype rises, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger will grow in popularity. They are both in play, but I believe you should roster your QB based on how you construct the rest of your roster. With a handful of clear chalk plays at the RB and WR position this week, I would lean to a low-ownership pivot at QB if you decent to follow that chalk. If you are able to construct a roster with contrarian plays in the rest of your lineup, I have no problem with you adding Ryan or Big Ben. I would lean Matt Ryan over Roethlisberger. However, I expect this game to be tight and competitive and I will likely be digging in to the contrarian plays this week.

Week 5 QBs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets

Low Ownership Targets (7% or less)

• Kirk Cousins

• Patrick Mahomes

• Carson Wentz

• Marcus Mariota

• Matthew Stafford

Who had the Vikings and Eagles match up in Week 5 penciled in for a pair of teams .500 or lower? In what is a rematch of the NFC Championship and what was expected to be a preview of this years title contest, these teams are hungry to get on the right track and keep that a reality. Despite their teams rough starts, I am wildly shocked by the lack of value placed on Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz this week in the premiere match up in the afternoon slate. Kirk Cousins ($6000) has thrown the ball 48 times or more in each of the last three weeks including two of 50 or more (55 and 50). He has two games of over 422 yards and has carried the brunt of the offense with an unreliable running game thru four weeks.

Cousins will likely be relied on in the same vein this week on the road against the Eagles with a banged up Dalvin Cook in a critical match up. Despite throwing the ball almost 14 times more per game this year than last season, he is completing 69.3% of those attempts, which would be his second highest mark of his career. He has found a rhythm with Adam Theilen and Stefon Diggs and has even found a role for the secondary receivers. The Eagles are the 10th worst against the QB on DraftKings this season, allowing an average of 23 DK points per week.  The Eagles have struggled against elite WRs and will be without Derek Barnett, relieving Kirk Cousins of some pressure.

Carson Wentz ($5800) is 1-1 since returning from his ACL injury and seemingly turned it up a notch despite losing to the Titans in Week 4. With 348 passing yards on 50 attempts, the Eagles have let him loose after only 37 pass attempts in his Week 3 return. With a limited running back committee and a potent offense on the other side of the field, Wentz will have to match Kirk Cousins’ production to compete in this contest. Despite being perceived as one of the top tiered defenses in the league, the Vikings have struggled against the QB, allowing 24.5 DK points per game, good for 8th worst thru four weeks. Wentz has Alshon Jeffrey back and a full array of offensive weapons to work with as the Eagles look to retain the NFC East title. I have a sneaky suspicion that this game could turn into a shootout and should be a game of interest for any DFS player.

Marcus Mariota ($6100) will be one of the lowest owned QBs on the slate, mostly due to his high price tag and inconstant play thru three weeks of suiting up. He has been struggling with the injury bug, but has led the Titans to victory in the past two weeks. They get to face a Buffalo Bills team who has struggled mightily against the QB with the exception of the Vikings and Kirk Cousins in Week 3. Mariota was spectacular in week 4, throwing for 344 yards and 2 TDs on 43 attempts and rushing for 46 yards and a TD in a thrilling win against the defending Super Bowl champs. The Titans have all of their weapons healthy (with the exception of Delanie Walker) and Mariota has found a strong connection with second year wide out Corey Davis for a team leading 39 targets. He only needs 26 more targets to eclipse his total from 2017.

What are you doing DFS community?! The Jaguars defense is elite but haven’t you noticed that Patrick Mahomes ($6200) is becoming match up proof?

Want a possible elite stack with virtually no ownership? You can have it with the Chiefs. Mahomes is off to an aggressively efficient start, throwing 13 touchdowns in his first three starts without going over 38 pass attempts in a game. In his Week 4 win against Denver, he finally got over the hump with 45 attempts but only threw for 1 TD on 304 passing yards. He made up for it with his first rushing score on the season. Of course, the Jaguars are the biggest test of Mahomes young career, only allowing 11.6 DK points per game to the opposing QB and who are challenging for a tie at the top of the AFC. Without an interception on the season, Mahomes would have to take a wild nose-dive in this match up to not hit value at $6200.

Matthew Stafford ($5700) is one of the most consistent fantasy performers year in and year out in the NFL. On this slate however, he is priced among the average to below average QBs despite having a favorable match up against the Packers. Stafford’s 67.9% completion percentage thru four games is higher than his career average or 62.2%. He has thrown a lot of interceptions this season but has managed to still throw for 300 yards per game. At $5700, he is a supreme low price, low ownership option.

‘Punt Plays’ (Under 3% and Under $5500)

• Russell Wilson

• Josh Rosen

• CJ Beathard

A trio of NFC West QBs are intriguing to me under the $5500 mark who are expected to be very low owned. Russell Wilson ($5100) and the Seahawks are a shell of what they used to be but with the return of Doug Baldwin and a fiery match up against the NFC West leading Rams, I think Russ could be a decent punt play in Week 5. He has certainly struggled with a lack of a 300 yard passing game and failed to throw a TD in Week 4 but with his top weapon back, he has a chance to rebound and get the Seahawks over .500. Wilson has often started the season a bit shaky but he still threw for a career high 34 touchdowns last season and is a staple of the afternoon slate when you need late points.

Josh Rosen ($4700) will see his second start this week after a mediocre debut against the Seahawks last week where he threw for 180 yards on 27 attempts and 1 TD. The Cardinals clearly tried to get David Johnson going with 22 rushes in Week 4 but only amounted for 71 yards. Prior to Johnson’s injury in 2017, he saw 120 targets in 2016 and is a deadly weapon coming out of the backfield. I expect the Cardinals to move more towards Rosen’s arm moving forward with the weapons that he has, especially against a defense like the 49ers. San Francisco is the 7th worst against the QB on DraftKings with 25 DK points allowed per game. This could be Rosen’s coming out party.

CJ Beathard ($4900) will be on the other side of that match up and is the ultimate punt on the weak at $4900. In a game where I expect Rosen and the Cardinals to be slinging, Beathard could be in for a decent stat line no matter the outcome of the game. On 37 attempts in Week 4, he threw for 298 yards and 2 TD and ran the ball 7 times (only for 19 yards). The scrambling QB really only needs about 17-19 DK points to be a great value this week and is a solid option to pair with George Kittle and the higher priced running backs (like Gurley and Gordon).

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

I am in love with the Patrick Mahomes contrarian play this week as well as rostering Kirk Cousins for the afternoon action. I think an $800 drop for Mahomes is too steep and Cousins is going to be at war against the Eagles. I am hesitant to pick Stafford in a historically poor match up for the Lions, but I will definitely have some exposure. If you need some cap relief, Josh Rosen is the play at $4700.

CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR RUNNING BACKS IN WEEK 5

Week 5 RBs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership

Top Tier (20-25% ownership or more)

• Aaron Jones

• Melvin Gordon

• TJ Yeldon

• David Johnson

• James Conner

With most of the Packers top WRs dealing with injury this week (Adams, Cobb and Allison), Green Bay will be desperate for offense and will look towards TE Jimmy Graham and their versatile RBs. Aaron Jones ($4300) had 65 yards and a score on 11 carries in Week 4 and is sitting at a friendly $4300 against a Lions defense that has struggled against the run. Detroit has allowed the the 4th most points to RBs on DraftKings this season with an average of 35.7 per game. If Cobb and Allison are officially ruled out, look for Jones to be the top chalk of the week.

I’m getting bored of talking about Melvin Gordon ($8600) and his never ending consistency. Gordon has scored 30 or more DraftKings points in 3 of his 4 games thus far. He has done that with a maximum of 15 rushes per game while also seeing 8.5 targets per game as he has gotten progressively more involved in the passing game.

At $8600, he is a decent step down from Todd Gurley and his $9400 price tag and Gordon faces a Raiders team that allows 29.1 DK points per game to RBs, good for 10th worst in the NFL. His one poor performance was against a stout Los Angeles Rams front-seven (15.6 DK points) but he has dominated below average competition. With cap relief available at other positions, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gordon’s ownership eclipse 25% when DFS players start to construct their lineups.

TJ Yeldon ($5600) gets another opportunity to shine while Leonard Fournette continues to work his way back to the field. Yeldon finally got in the end zone on the ground last week off of his 18 carries to add to his 2 reception TDs. At $5600, DraftKings seemingly still hasn’t caught up to Yeldon’s role with the Jaguars. Although I expect Jacksonville to be throwing a lot in a heavy match up against the Chiefs, that doesn’t diminish Yeldon’s contribution to the offense having seen 22 targets thru four weeks of the season (and 2 TDs).

More importantly, the Kansas City Chiefs are the worst team in the league against opposing RBs on DraftKings, allowing 38.7 DK points per game thru four weeks. The Chiefs are also the fourth worst defense in the Red Zone, allowing 83.33% of red zone possessions to end in TDs. Yeldon has had a huge presence in the red zone this season…

David Johnson ($6300) finally saw his number called on a regular basis in Week 4 after a slow start to the season. With 22 rushes, Johnson accumulated 71 yards and a rushing TD while adding 3 catches for 41 yards. He is still wildly off his historic target average of 7.5 per game in 2016 only getting beyond that mark in Week 1 with 9 targets. If the Cardinals offense has any hope this season, they must get DJ involved in the passing game. At $6300, there is still a giant gap between Johnson and the top backs on the slate which is why you see him so highly on the ownership projections. The 49ers are the 8th worst team against the RB on DraftKings, allowing 30.9 DK points per game.

James Conner ($7500) benefits from the high scoring implications of the Falcons/Steelers match up this Sunday. After his prolific performance in Week 1, Conner has been essentially invisible on the field with only 97 rushing yards and 1 TD in the past three weeks. He is still involved in the passing game, seeing 18 targets over those three weeks but has only wrangled in 13 for 107 yards and 0 TDs. The Falcons are also the third worst defense against the RB position on DraftKings, allowing 35.9 DK points per game. Of the chalk, Conner is the option I am most wary of.

Middle Tier (15-20% ownership)

• Christian McCaffrey
• Todd Gurley
• Joe Mixon

Christian McCaffrey ($8000) remains among the top priced options among the RBs in Week 5 as one of three eclipsing $8000. Benefiting from a weak supporting cast, McCaffrey has been virtually the only source of consistent offense this season with 271 rushing yards on 46 attempts and 157 receiving yards on 22 receptions (26 targets). Shockingly, McCaffrey has failed to punch his way into the end zone thru three weeks (Panthers were on a bye in Week 4).

His source of offense has been completely unpredictable; In three games, McCaffrey has run the ball 10, 8 and then 28 times. In those three games, he has seen 9, 15 and then 2 targets. The Panthers have clearly positioned McCaffrey in their offense based on their opponents strengths. With the New York Giants being prolific against the pass, I expect McCaffrey to be utilized more in the running game than the passing game this week, which can be a little less predictable. In PPR contests (all DraftKings contests), McCaffrey’s pass catching ability out of the backfield is often highly valuable. I would be cautious using McCaffrey this week despite the Giants allowing 31.6 DK points to opposing RBs per game (7th worst).

Todd Gurley ($9400) is our highest priced option on the entire slate this week at $9400, $300 more than Antonio Brown. Despite the illusion of the Seahawks dominance at home in recent years, Todd Gurley should not see any dip in production after rushing for 152 yards on 21 carries with 3 rushing TDs in Seattle last season along with a 28 receiving yards and a TD in the Rams 42-7 route of Seattle. In their one home game this year, Seattle allowed Ezekiel Elliott to rush for 127 yards on 16 carries in Week 2. Gurley is coming off of another 150+ scrimmage yards contest against the Vikings and is on 10 days of rest heading in to week 5. Another tough fade for DFS contenders this Sunday.

Joe Mixon ($6900) returns to the field this week after missing the past two games battling a knee injury. With Giovani Bernard OUT on Sunday, Mixon will immediately be plugged back into the offense at full capacity against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed the 5th most DraftKings points to RBs this season at 34.6 DK points per game. If week 1 is any indication of Mixon’s importance to the 3-1 Bengals, he should see plenty of love on the ground and through the air on Sunday. Mixon rushed for 95 yards and caught 5 balls for 54 yards against the Colts to start the season. The only concern would be his workload, with Marvin Lewis mentioning a bit of hesitation heading in to week 5…

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk

With an expected 8 RBs going over 10% ownership this week, you are likely going to have to follow the chalk in some capacity on Sunday. Out of the top tier, I am in favor of Melvin Gordon and TJ Yeldon creating the most value with their match ups. Among the second level, just plug in Todd Gurley and call it a day.

Week 5 RBs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets

Targets (10% ownership or less)

• Derrick Henry

• Matt Breida

• Saquon Barkley

• Marshawn Lynch

• Ty Montgomery

As I will mention in my recap at the bottom of this page, I love Derrick Henry ($4400) this week. Off the 10 worst teams against the RB position on DraftKings, the Bills and Cardinals are the only team not expected to see the opposing running back eclipse 10% ownership this week. At 30.8 DK points per game allowed to RBs, the Bills sit at the 9th worst in the league. Henry has had a rough start to the season, only gaining more than 50 yards in two games thus far (56 and 57 in weeks 2 and 3). He has also been virtually useless in the passing game, only seeing 4 targets total thru four weeks. He is, however, among the top running backs in the league in red zone touches with 12 thus far. That being said, he has not gotten in to the end zone once this season. Despite all this, I believe the 3-1 Titans will feed the big man a lot this week in a game they should control against the Bills.

Matt Breida ($5700) is struggling with injuries heading into Week 5 but has one of the juiciest match ups on the slate. The Cardinals have allowed the second most DraftKings points per game to the RB position at 38 DK points per game. Breida has also seen a few targets per game which have helped pad his stat lines. He has a league leading 7.6 yards gained per rushing attempt being only one of two running backs over 6 per attempt (Austin Ekeler at 6.7 ypa). With a new QB at the helm, I expect the 49ers to rely heavily on Breida if he laces up.

Saquon Barkley ($7700) faces a relatively solid defense this week against the Panthers and also will suffer from being among the highest priced running backs on the slates. Barkley excelled against one of the best defenses in the league in week 1 vs. the Jaguars, rushing for 106 yards and a TD and seems to be involved no matter the match up. Thru four weeks, Barkley has 260 rushing yards and 3 TDs on 56 carries and has caught 27 of 35 targets for 193 yards.

The ageless Marshawn Lynch ($5500) has been among the leagues most consistent backs despite being on the field for only about 50% of the offensive snaps. In the last three weeks, Lynch has rushed the ball 18, 19 and 20 times for a total of 259 yards and 2 TDs (3 total TDs on the season). He has also seen 8 targets in the last two weeks catching 6 for 49 yards. With the friendly price tag of $5500, Lynch may go under-the-radar in a tough match up against the Chargers. Be cautious of Beast Mode…

There is a clear pivot play off of Aaron Jones on this slate with Green Bay’s Ty Montgomery ($3800). After a pair of solid campaigns in 2016 and 207, Montgomery has been a forgotten member of this Packers team with the likes of Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones stepping into a more prevalent role. Despite this, Montgomery has continued to carve out a small role in the passing game with 15 targets this season including 7 in week 3. With the bevy of Packers receivers likely to miss Week 5, I see Montgomery as a critical part of the offense on Sunday and is only $3800 for a guy who could see 10 or more targets against the Lions.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

I am all in on Derrick Henry and his $4400 price tag this week. He is set up for a huge workload and if he can find his way to the end zone, he will be a huge value play on Sunday. I also see the incredible value in Matt Breida and Ty Montgomery this weekend.

CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR WIDE RECEIVERS IN WEEK 5

Week 5 WRs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership

Top Tier (15-20% ownership or more)

• Julio Jones

• Adam Thielen

• Antonio Brown

• Juju Smith-Schuster

With the highest owned QBs coming from the Falcons/Steelers game this week, it is no surprise that 4 of the 5 highest owned WRs are also expected to come from that match up. Despite Calvin Ridley creating the insane buzz he has with his 6 touchdowns in September, Julio Jones ($8500) has consistently remained one of the most consistent receivers in the league. Coming off of a 173 yard performance catching 9 of 12 targets, Jones remains below the $9000 mark sitting at only $8500 in a favorable match up. Shockingly, Jones has yet to get into the end zone this season despite totaling 502 yards on 29 receptions with his 17.3 yards per reception. The Steelers are the third worst in the league on DraftKings against opposing WRs allowing 49.6 DK points per game which gives weight to the opportunity for both Jones and Ridley to have great games.

On the other side of this match up is Antonio Brown ($9100) and Juju Smith-Schuster ($7500). The Falcons have had struggled of their own against WRs this season, allowing 45 DK points per game, good for 7th worst in the league. With a gap of $1600 on DraftKings, there is little separating the two Steelers receivers in target shares this season…

Clearly Smith-Schuster has had a slightly better campaign thus far but Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger have a long history of dominating performances at home over the years. Despite Juju having three games of 100+ yards receiving to Brown’s zero, he trails Brown 3 to 1 in reception TDs. With the highest over/under on the slate, it is clear that both Brown and Smith-Schuster are in line for gigantic stat lines.

In the premiere afternoon contest, Adam Thielen ($7700) and the Vikings offense will look to continue their solid start in the 2017 NFC Championship rematch. Referencing the tweet above, you can see how comfortable Kirk Cousins has been with Thielen thus far with 56 total targets. Adam Thielen has taken advantage of his opportunity with 40 receptions, 473 yards and 2 TDs thru four weeks. Cousins has three straight weeks of 48 or more pass attempts and I don’t see that slowing down this week against Carson Wentz and the Eagles. Theilen has also eclipsed 100 receiving yards in every game this season and is only the 5th highest priced WR on the board at $7700.

Middle Tier (10-15% ownership)

• Calvin Ridley
• Dede Westbrook
• Marvin Jones
• Tyler Boyd
• Stefon Diggs

Calvin Ridley ($5800) has been the darling of the WR class from the 2018 NFL Draft and is on quite the hot streak. In his last three games, Ridley has caught 6 TDs on only 19 targets bringing in 15 of those for 264 yards. Despite this incredible stat line and the great match up, he still lies at only $5800 on DraftKings. As previously mentioned with Julio Jones, the Steelers have struggled across the board against WRs this season, allowing for both Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and even guys like Mohamed Sanu to have a solid day.

With Blake Bortles among the top owned QBs this week, most DFS contestants that plan on using him will look for someone to pair him with. This week, it looks like Dede Westbrook ($4700) will be that guy. Coming off of a week where he caught 9 of 13 balls for 130 yards, Westbrook remains at $4700 and one of the top values of the week. Prior to his week 4 explosion, Westbrook only saw a total of 15 targets thru three weeks and will continue to battle with Keelan Cole and Donte Montcrief for Bortles attention. Despite the Chiefs struggles against opposing RBs, they are in the middle of the pack against the WR, allowing for 40.4 DK points per game on the year which may put a ceiling on what the Jaguars receivers can do.

Marvin Jones ($4700) is the surprise among the top projected ownership this week as the Lions host the Packers. Jones was added to the injury report, listed as questionable on Sunday, this week and continues to see targets flooded to Kenny Golladay. Jones was either 1A or 1B throughout the 2017 campaign along side Golden Tate but has yet to have a breakout performance in 2018. Despite having 2 TDs thus far, his peak performance was 4 catches for 69 yards against the Patriots. In fact, Jones has no more than 4 catches in a game this season despite seeing more targets per game this season than last. The Packers are also an average to above average pass defense leaving me confused as to the buzz surrounding Marvin Jones this week.

Tyler Boyd ($5700) is on an upward climb at a rapid pace. He has already surpassed his target total from 2017 (10 games) with 36 on the season and has caught 26 of those for 349 yards and 2 TDs coming mostly in the past three weeks. Despite the Dolphins being among the top defenses against the WR this season, the Bengals are struggling with injuries heading into their week 5 match up with Miami. With John Ross, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard missing, Tyler Boyd and AJ Green will be heavily relied upon as the Bengals look to get off to a 4-1 start. Joe Mixon returns this week but may see a limitation as well. With AJ Green likely to see Xavier Howard this week, it could be another week of success for Boyd and his $5700 price tag.

Lining up opposite of #1 WR Adam Thielen is Stefon Diggs ($7000). Despite trailing his counterpart by 12 targets, Diggs has still seen 44 balls come his way and has brought in 27 for 311 yards and 3 TDs with a 11.5 yards per reception average. After a slow start in week one (3 of 6 targets), Diggs has seen 10+ targets in Weeks 2-4 and has excelled in the contests against the big tests in the NFC (Packers and Rams). The Vikings have enjoyed a few extra days of rest after their Thursday Night battle with the Rams and the Eagles have struggled against the WR position, allowing 48.1 DK points per game (4th worst).

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk

I may sound crazy but I plan on fading virtually all of the Falcons/Steelers game. Again, based on the magnitude of the match up, I believe it could be a lower scoring affair than Vegas and the public expects and the ownership saturation of guys like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Juju Smith-Schuster may be too much for me to handle. I do like Calvin Ridley at his price. My sights will be set on the Vikings receivers, Thielen and Diggs and I also am a huge fan of Tyler Boyd’s outlook this week.

Week 5 WRs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets

Targets (10% ownership or less)

• John Brown

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

• Corey Davis

• Kenny Golladay

• Tyreek Hill

• Brandin Cooks

• Christian Kirk

• Odell Beckham Jr

Despite having 5 or less receptions in each of the first four games, John Brown ($5600) has done damage with his opportunities thus far. On 15 receptions (30 targets), he has 338 yards (22.5 yards per reception) and 3 TDs. Imagine he caught more than 50% of his targets? The Browns are in the bottom 10 for DraftKings points allowed to WRs at 42.9 DK points per game and Brown has clearly been Joe Flacco‘s favorite target during their 3-1 start. After only being targeted 4 times in week 1, John Brown has seen 10, 9 and 7 targets in weeks 2-4. At $5600, he will be usurped by Tyler Boyd and his $5700 in that range but he will certainly be on my radar.

Aaron Rodgers has to throw the ball to someone, right? With Adams, Cobb and Allison all likely missing Sunday’s action, the next man up would be the rookie, MVS. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3300) has only seen 5 targets through 4 weeks but his number is likely to be called on multiple occasions vs. the Lions. Shockingly, Detroit has been the best defense against WRs on DraftKings, only allowing 22.6 DK points per game but at $3300, Valdes-Scantling doesn’t have to do much to hit value.

Corey Davis ($6400) has clearly become the #1 target for Marcus Mariota with the second-year wide out being targeted 39 times through four weeks. He has a low catch rate, only bringing in 22 of those balls but has accumulated 312 yards and found the end zone in his week 4 breakout game against the Eagles. With 15 targets (9 catches, 161 yards), Davis showed up for the Titans as they improved to 3-1 on the season. At $6400, his price has certainly caught up to his success but he gets to face a Bills defense that has been eaten alive this season.

Kenny Golladay ($6000) is an interesting play simply as a pivot off of the popular Marvin Jones and Golden Tate this week. After seeing 28 targets in the first three weeks, he only accounted for 4 in Week 4. On those 32 total targets, Golladay has 23 receptions for 330 yards and 2 TDs as the 6’4” WR continues to shine in a crowded WR corps. At $6000, he is similar to Davis in the sense that he has become a known commodity, but that $6000 zone may be a valuable pivot with the high cost of RBs this week.

Jalen Ramsey called Tyreek Hill ($6900) a ‘punt return specialist’ this week in a clear attempt to rile up the young, electric wide out. In his brief career in the NFL, Hill doesn’t seem to be the type to let that go heading into a Week 5 match up of AFC titans. With the elite defensive match up this week, Tyreek Hill dropped $1400 from last week to land at $6900. Hill has 23 receptions on 32 targets for 364 yards and 3 TDs in the first four weeks. There is a clear motion to fade the red-hot Chiefs this week, but I will be on the contrarian side with a Patrick Mahomes-Tyreek Hill stack in the works.

Brandin Cooks ($7400) has done something this season that he failed to do with the Saints and Patriots, stay consistent. Cooks showed clear signs of brilliance with both New Orleans and New England in his career but failed to show up week in and week out. Cooks has seen no less than 8 targets and no more than 9 targets through 4 weeks this year. He has three straight weeks of 7 catches and 90+ yards and has a total of 26 catches on 33 targets for 452 yards (17.4 per reception) and 1 TD. At $7400, he is among the top priced WRs this week but faces a Seahawks team that has been average at best against the WR position. This is a great pivot play off of the Steelers,Falcons and Vikings high-priced options.

Christian Kirk ($3700) was a disappointment in Week 4 only bringing in 4 of his 7 targets for 28 yards. The talented rookie clearly caught the eye of fellow rookie Josh Rosen being targeted on 7 of Rosen’s 27 throws. In the past two weeks, Kirk has a total of 15 targets and with Larry Fitzgerald battling injuries in Week 5, Kirk should see a similar dose of action in Week 5. It doesn’t hurt that Kirk and Rosen have a great friendship…

This will sound weird, but if you need a ‘punt’ play among the top priced receiver, Odell Beckham Jr ($8000) is a solid option. At $8000, he is the third highest priced receiver on the slate. Despite having zero touchdowns on this season, he has been rather consistent on the year with 31 catches on 45 targets for 331 yards and he has actually performed better against the better defenses so far (Jaguars and Texans) as opposed to the poor units (Cowboys and Saints). The Panthers are a decent test this week, but Beckham Jr should continue to see enough targets to provide some value.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

My favorite plays of this group are Tyreek Hill and Brandin Cooks and I will also have some exposure to Christian Kirk and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Hill and Cooks are two of the most talented receivers in the league and are being overlooked this week due to pricing and match ups. Kirk and Valdes-Scantling are both sub-$3700 and will be needed if you want to roster the high-priced options.

CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR TIGHT ENDS IN WEEK 5

Week 5 TEs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership

Top Tier (20% ownership or more)

• Vance McDonald

Vance McDonald ($3700) will be the runaway chalk of the TEs this week, can you imagine that? A TE who was expected to be the secondary option behind Jesse James has created a space for himself to excel in this offense and is at the bottom-dollar price of $3700. Combine that with the fact that the Steelers/Falcons game is the highest total projected and you have a recipe for the top chalk. Despite his price, I do have concerns about this selection. Despite accumulating 200 yards and a TD thru three weeks played, McDonald only has 5 targets in each of those three games and only has 12 receptions. Thanks to a few huge yardage plays, McDonald has been able to amass that 200 yard mark. Seems like a decent risk when he is going to be this big of a chalk.

Middle Tier (10-20% ownership)

• Travis Kelce

• Jared Cook

• Zach Ertz

Travis Kelce ($6000) had a putrid Week 1, catching only 1 ball on 6 targets for 6 yards. Since then, Kelce has 32 targets, 22 receptions, 301 yards and 3 TDs. He has continued his reign among the top TEs in the league with the help of second-year gunslinger, Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has helped Kelce to a 13.3 yards per reception which would be the highest of his career. There are two issues with Kelce heading into Week 5. He is the second highest priced TE at $6000 and his opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the best defense in the league against the TE. Jacksonville has only allowed 6.8 DraftKings points per game to the tight end including a week where they silenced the great Rob Gronkowski.

There are very few reliable options on this slate, Jared Cook ($4800) is one of them. Cook has been one of the Raiders top options thru 4 weeks, catching 26 of 35 targets for 370 yards and 2 TDs. At $4800, he fits in the second tier of pricing below guys like Kelce and Ertz but more expensive than Vance McDonald and others. The Chargers have allowed only 11.3 DraftKings points per game to the Tight End, good for 15th best. If you build your lineup and find yourself around this price tag, Cook is the way to go.

Zach Ertz ($6500) is the highest priced TE on the slate by $500 at $6500. With the return of Carson Wentz in Week 3, Ertz has caught 15 of 24 targets for 185 yards and has silenced the presence of rookie Dallas Goedert. Minnesota is the 19th best against the TE on DraftKings, allowing for 11.9 DK points to be scored per game. As Wentz continues to get healthy, Ertz will become more and more of a threat on these DraftKings slate. I believe the Vikings/Eagles match up will be more of a shootout then the 45 point over/under may suggest and I think Ertz will be a major part of that.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk

I am OUT on the Vance McDonald bandwagon this week. I will either be paying all the way up for Zach Ertz in my favorite match up of the week, or going down to a low-owned target (next page).

Week 5 TEs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets

Targets (7% ownership or less)

• George Kittle

• Ricky Seals-Jones

• Jimmy Graham

• Nick Vannett

Believe it or not, George Kittle ($5400) finally had that break out performance we expected after his solid showing in Week 1 against the Vikings. Surprisingly, it was not with Jimmy Garoppolo but with CJ Beathard. Beathard targeted the big safety net Kittle 8 times and Kittle cashed in for 6 catches, 125 yards and 1 TD. It was the most targets he had seen since Week 1 and his 6 receptions was his season-high. Against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is surprisingly good against the TE, only allowing 9.8 DK points per game, Kittle has an opportunity to prove that he is among the leagues best TEs. At $5400, he only trails Kelce and Ertz for the top priced TE options.

Ricky Seals-Jones ($2900) continues to be on the field a majority of the time (83.65% of offensive snaps) but has yet to see over 6 targets in a game. Despite only having 2 catches last week, he did have a season high 52 receiving yards. At $2900, I don’t hate the idea of a dirt cheap stack of Rosen-Kirk-Jones if you want to play guys like Gurley, Gordon, Brown, Jones, etc.

Despite fighting a knee injury, Jimmy Graham ($4700) is listed as probable for Sunday’s match up against the Lions in a game where the Packers are likely to be without all three of their top receivers. Graham has been a bit of a disapointment in his new home, totaling 16 catches on 25 targets for 169 yards and a TD. He has had three straight weeks of 6 or more targets but has only had one game of 50 yards or more (95 yards in week 2). The Lions have been solid against the TE position and will likely do all they can to slow down Graham with the injury plagued receiving corps for the Packers. Still, at $4700, Graham is a decent pivot off of guys like Jared Cook.

Nick Vannett ($2500) was expected to be the lead TE heading into this season prior to Will Dissly arriving in a major way. Vannett has been targeted 14 times this season but has only totaled 67 yards on 9 catches with no touchdowns. With Vannett priced at $2500 and Dissly missing the remainder of the season, there is some value in this punt play.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

I will have a lot of exposure to George Kittle this week in a lot of my lineups with his high upside and reasonable cost. I believe Beathard will be a serviceable replacement for Jimmy Garoppolo for the remainder of the season and Kittle will play a major role. Vannett is an excellent option for those looking to save some major cash. Russell Wilson loves to involve his tight ends and there is only one legitimate option left in Seattle.

CLICK ON THE NEXT BUTTON TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS FOR DEFENSES IN WEEK 5

Week 5 DEFs – DraftKings NFL Highest Projected Ownership

Top Tier (10% ownership or higher)

• Tennessee Titans

• Cincinnati Bengals

The Titans ($4000) have averaged 9 DK points per game thru four weeks including a pair of 11+ point performances against the Jaguars and Dolphins. The have only had one defensive TD this season and have done most of their work through sacks (3 or more sacks in each of the last three games) as well as adding at least 1 INT or fumble recover in each of those three games. They also face the Bills who have limited weapons and outside of the blowout of the Minnesota Vikings, have been rather terrible.

The Bengals ($2700) have 3 INTs, 2 fumble recoveries, 10 sacks and 1 defensive TD this season. They had 10 ore more DK points in the first two weeks against the Colts and Ravens but struggled against the Panthers and Falcons, totaling -1 DK points COMBINED against the pair. They have a friendly contest against the Dolphins in Cincinnati as they look to move to 4-1.

Middle Tier (7-10% ownership)

• Arizona Cardinals

• New York Jets

• Baltimore Ravens

The Cardinals ($2900) will face CJ Beathard and the struggling 49ers this week in San Francisco. Despite throwing 2 TDs and 298 yards passing, Beathard did forfeit 2 INTs in Week 4. The Cardinals have had at least 2 sacks in every game this season along with 2 INTs and 2 fumble recoveries. Their ceiling isn’t very high, but they are a solid bet against the 49ers.

The Jets ($2600) defense has averaged 11.5 DK points per game, mostly due to their incredible performance against the Lions in week 1 (26 DK points). Last week against the Jaguars in a loss, they still managed to get 2 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries and 1 INT. They are feisty and face a Broncos offense that has talent but hasn’t necessarily exploded this season. Case Keenum had 3 INTs in week 1 and has had three straight weeks with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

The Ravens ($2800) face an unpredictable Browns team in Cleveland this week but are a cost efficient $2800. Baker Mayfield may cause some problems but with their 4 INTs and 10 sacks thus far, the Ravens are still a safe bet to put up enough points to get near value.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk

The Titans are a safe bet against the Bills but are incredibly pricey at $4000. I would lean towards the Jets who have shown what they can do against an unsteady QB.

Week 5 DEFs – DraftKings NFL Low Ownership Targets

Targets (5% ownership or less)

• Los Angeles Rams

• Detroit Lions

The Rams ($3800) lead the board with 12.3 DK points per game thru four weeks. Prior to a 5 point performance against the Vikings in their Thursday Night shootout, the Rams scored 17, 13 and then 14 DK points over the first three weeks thanks to 2 defensive TDs and a handful of INTs and fumble recoveries.

The Lions ($2200) are my low-cost, low-owned defense of the week against the Packers who are dealing with an outrageous amount of injuries including their QB Aaron Rodgers. The Lions proved they have potential against the Patriots on Sunday Night and have excelled in the front seven with 13 sacks on the season.

Who Should I Play Out Of The Low Ownership Targets?

Both of these options are great if you want to avoid the chalk and either go with the historically great option (Rams) or the low cost option with potential (Lions).

Follow me on Twitter at @AlexMcKinnonDFS for the latest on ownership and pivot plays as we approach Sunday’s slate