Notre Dame remained undefeated with a win over Virginia Tech, but the Fighting Irish are no lock for the College Football Playoff even if they run the table.
Brian Kelly’s team is sure to move into the top 5 in the next AP Top 25 after LSU lost, but is it enough to move into the discussion as a College Football Playoff team? Look beyond the record, and look at their schedule, and you’ll see why Notre Dame, despite their undefeated record, is not a look to make the College Football Playoff.
The truth lies in the schedule, Irish fans. The win against Michigan in the opener is nice, but the close games against Ball State and Vanderbilt are less-than-ideal. They rebounded to whoop up on a struggling Wake Forest Deamon Deacons squad and won over a then-No. 7 Stanford and No. 24 Virginia Tech, the latter of which lost to Old Dominion a couple of weeks ago and lost their starting quarterback.
While the win against Virginia Tech is a win against a ranked opponent, the loss will drop the No. 24 Hokies out of the Top 25, for the second time this season, so that’s not going to be an impressive win at the end of November. A few hours after Notre Dame’s win, the Cardinal suffered their second loss of the season, so their 38-17 win isn’t as special. Considering Stanford evaded a loss to Oregon with a miracle comeback, and Stanford may be due for another loss or two yet.
Michigan needs to keep winning for Notre Dame’s playoff hopes to look good. The Wolverines host No. 16 Wisconsin next week and a win for the Wolverines will be celebrated by the Fighting Irish. But if Michigan loses that game, and loses potential games against Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State, and the win that looked impressive in September suddenly loses a lot of its luster.
Let’s just project Notre Dame runs the table and picks up wins against Pittsburgh, Navy, Northwestern, Florida State, Syracuse and USC to go undefeated. That’s all well and good, but it still doesn’t mean they’re a lock depending on what happens in the other conferences.
If Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson go undefeated and win their conference championship games, they are mortal locks for the Playoff, which leaves only one spot for Notre Dame, a potential one-loss Georgia as the SECCG loser, a one-loss Big 12 and a one-loss Pac-12 champion.
As great as an undefeated season would be for Notre Dame, they will be penalized for not playing a conference championship game to boost their playoff credentials.
If you’re a Notre Dame fan, you need to root for LSU to beat Georgia next week. Then, you need to root for Michigan to win out, which would give Ohio State a loss. They’d also benefit from Washington, Oklahoma and Texas losing one more time.
Needless to say, an undefeated record would be an accomplishment, but could still result in disappointment for Notre Dame unless a lot of things fall their way.