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College Football Playoff: Which 1-loss team has the best odds to get in?

By Patrick Schmidt

Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley makes a pass against Appalachian State on Saturday, Sept. 1, 2018, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa. The host Nittany Lions won, 45-38, in overtime. (Abby Drey/Centre Daily Times/TNS via Getty Images)
Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley makes a pass against Appalachian State on Saturday, Sept. 1, 2018, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa. The host Nittany Lions won, 45-38, in overtime. (Abby Drey/Centre Daily Times/TNS via Getty Images) /
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ANN ARBOR, MI – SEPTEMBER 22: Shea Patterson #2 of the Michigan Wolverines throws a second half pass while playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers on September 22, 2018 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
ANN ARBOR, MI – SEPTEMBER 22: Shea Patterson #2 of the Michigan Wolverines throws a second half pass while playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers on September 22, 2018 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

4. Michigan (5-1)

  • Loss: at Notre Dame
  • Notable remaining games: vs. Wisconsin, at Michigan State, vs. Penn State, at Ohio State
  • Odds to win out: 5.2 percent
  • Make the Playoff: 11 percent

Michigan has won five straight since dropping the opener by a touchdown at Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh’s team controls their destiny in the Big Ten where they can win out and make the Big Ten Championship Game. The issue is they have four opponents that could all trip them up, beginning this week with Wisconsin. The odds aren’t very favorable they’ll make their way through the gauntlet.

5. Florida (5-1)

  • Loss: Kentucky
  • Notable remaining games: vs. Georgia (neutral site), at Florida State
  • Odds to win out: 1.6 percent
  • Make the Playoff: 2 percent

The Gators looked great on Saturday as they handed LSU their first loss of the year and The Swamp was rocking in the biggest win of the Dan Mullen era. That said, unless they beat Georgia in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, there’s zero chance they make the playoff, which would, in turn, need a win over SEC West champion, most likely Alabama. The odds give Florida a 2 percent chance, but it’s basically zero.

6. Wisconsin (4-1)

  • Loss: vs. BYU
  • Notable remaining games: at Michigan, at Penn State
  • Odds to win out: .4 percent
  • Make the Playoff: <1 percent

When you lose at home to BYU, you end your chances of playing for the national championship. The Badgers could win the Big Ten West, but they might have two losses on their conference record. At least they have Spotted Cow and Jump Around.

7. Miami (5-1)

  • Loss: vs. LSU (neutral site)
  • Notable remaining games: at Boston College, at Virginia Tech
  • Odds to win out: 2.3 percent
  • Make the Playoff: 2 percent

The remaining schedule isn’t so tough for Miami and after making the quarterback change to N’Kosi Perry, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Canes run the table. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose a game or two they shouldn’t. I think this is a team that gets to the ACC Championship Game before getting the doors blown off by Clemson.

8. LSU (5-1)

  • Loss: at Florida
  • Notable remaining games: vs. Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, at Texas A&M
  • Odds to win out: .2 percent
  • Make the Playoff: <1 percent

LSU was in the top 5 and enjoying their best start in years last week. Now, they’re 5-1 and have virtually zero chance of winning their own division, let alone winning the conference and making the Playoff. Looking at their remaining games, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Tigers lose at least twice, if not as many as four more times in a worst-case scenario.

9. Texas (5-1)

  • Loss: Maryland
  • Notable remaining games:
  • Odds to win out: 2.5 percent
  • Make the Playoff: 1 percent

Texas and their fans are feeling on top of the world after their 48-45 win over rival Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown, but I’m here to knock them down with a dose of reality. They’re not making the Playoff, even if they overcome the 97.5 percent chance that they won’t win out and win the Big 12. It’s looking like the Big 12 is going to be left out this year barring something crazy happening to Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson and Notre Dame.

10. Iowa, Kentucky, Oregon, Washington State, Duke

The other five Group of Five teams with one loss have virtually zero chance of making the College Football Playoff. In fact, they have a greater chance of being struck by lightning after winning the lottery.

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Odds courtesy of ESPN’s Playoff predictor and FPI.

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