2018 Breakout Players: NBA DFS

Hello again, NBA fans, and welcome back to the third installment of my preseason NBA DFS series.  We are officially one week away from opening night and I couldn’t be more excited. NBA DFS is, in my opinion, the most fun DFS sport to play, and usually my most profitable.

Today I want to spotlight some excited young players who I think are ready to make big jumps into NBA stardom, thus making them players that we are going to want on our NBA DFS rosters quite often this season.

NBA DFS: Aaron Gordon – PF, Orlando Magic

Gordon tops my list of breakout candidates and I almost didn’t include him because I felt like most DFS players already know about his potential. Aaron Gordon arguably already “broke out” last year when he averaged 17-8-2 with 1.8 blocks/steals, but he was limited to 58 games by injuries and had his minutes yanked around by former coach Frank Vogel.

Personally, I think Gordon has more even more upside than he showed last year and that his game is still nowhere near his ceiling. He is an athletic freak who can rack up boards/blocks/steals but is still refining his offensive game and tweaking his jump shot.  The good news is that his new coach, Steve Clifford, has committed to a tighter rotation this season which means he could average more than his 33 minutes per game last season.

Gordon is also taking a lot more threes than ever before. Last year he attempted 6 per game, making a career-high 33% of them.  If that trend continues, I think we can see Gordon push for 20 points a game with stat lines that are full of peripheral stats.  Just look at what he did in 32 minutes against Miami last night – 12 points, 8 boards, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 3 blocks. And that was with his shooting 5-17 from the field! The 17 shot attempts, with 7 being 3-point attempts is encouraging and shows me that Gordon is going to flirt with 20-10 lines all season long. Get him in your DFS lineups early and often before he gets priced up like an elite player.

NBA DFS: Dennis Smith Jr. – PG, Dallas Mavericks

The first of our sophomore point guards is Dallas rookie Dennis Smith Jr.  There’s a lot to like about this dynamic young guard this season. Last year he ended up with averages of 15 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists with one steal per game but in only 29 minutes per contest. Coach Rick Carlisle was hesitant to play Smith big minutes for most of the season, keeping him under 30 minutes in over half of the games Smith played.

This year, I expect Carlisle to loosen the reins of his stud point guard and let him play more minutes which should result in increased production. The addition of playmaking wing Luka Doncic (who I profiled here last week as an impact rookie) should allow Smith to play off the ball a little more often when they’re sharing the court which could lead to some more catch and shoot opportunities and allow Smith to get some easy buckets without having to create his own shot. Running the pick and roll with one of the best shooting 4-men in league history, Dirk Nowitzki, will probably help those assist numbers, too.

NBA DFS: De’Aaron Fox – PG, Sacramento Kings

Unlike Smith, Fox had a somewhat rocky rookie year as he battled inconsistency and ended up only scoring 11 points per game on 41% shooting from the field. The Kings were a mess last year and were constantly shifting their young players in and out of the lineup. There was really no way of knowing which players to target on a nightly basis and at one point I ended up with a strict “fade the Kings” approach to DFS even when they had matchups that were appealing.

So what has changed this year? Well, there has been an immediate infusion of talent in the form of rookie big man Marvin Bagley III (profiled here last week in impact rookies) and the development of other good young players like Skal Labissiere and Harry Giles who are guys who can finish when Fox feeds them the ball. Fox isn’t a true passing point guard, but he should be better than his paltry 4.4 assists were last year.

While he does have Frank Mason Jr. and Yogi Ferrell to contend with, the biggest thing in Fox’s favor to begin the season is the injury to Bogdan Bogdanovic who was a major ball-handler for the Kings last season. Buddy Hield is going to get his shots up, but I do think Fox is going to be the primary play-maker on the first unit. If you’ve watched him play, you’ve seen his dynamic ability to score the rock and find open teammates. I think the Kings really want Fox to be their guy, and while the rotation does seem somewhat muddied again this year, he will emerge as a 30 minutes per night player who has the potential to put some nice fantasy output.

NBA DFS: Caris LeVert – SF, Brooklyn Nets

Levert is entering his third NBA season with Nets and is primed for a big year.  The Nets have a number of young, talented players on their roster and while Coach Kenny Atkinson’s rotations were sometimes maddening last season, Levert is one player who the team clearly wants to develop. He averaged 26 minutes and put up 12-4-4 with 1.2 steals as the Nets’ sixth man.

Levert is usually SG or SF eligible, but he often functions as the de-facto point guard when he’s on the floor, racking up assists. His length and height (6’7″) allow him to grab a lot of rebounds and get steals, as well. His line from last night’s game against Detroit is a pretty good indication of the upside he has on a nightly basis (17-9-8 with 6 turnovers). The turnovers are high, but it shows that the ball is his in hands a lot and that the Nets are counting on him to be a playmaker on offense.

NBA DFS: John Collins – PF, Atlanta Hawks

I’m really bullish on Collins as he enters his sophomore campaign. His rookie averages of 10/7/1 with 1.1 blocks per game in only 24 minutes are really encouraging and he should see his minutes increase this season as his role as the starting 4-man is solidified. That production, when projected for 36 minutes, looks more like 16/11/2 with 1.6 blocks which would make Collins a serious fantasy asset and likely a value depending on how he is priced to start the season.  Staying out of foul trouble has been an issue for the youngster early in his career, but his length and athleticism are going to make him a tough cover for defenders and his shot-blocking is going to give him massive upside on any given night in DFS.  I think he’s primed for a big season as one of the centerpieces of a young, rebuilding Hawks team.

NBA DFS: Domantas Sabonis – PF, Indiana Pacers

The young Lithuanian big man, and son of former NBA player Arvydas Sabonis, really flourished as a sixth man off the bench for the Pacers last season. At times, he also filled in as a starter in 19 games as Myles Turner, who’s fairly injury prone, missed games at different times throughout the season.  Sabonis put up averages of 11-7-2 in only 24 minutes last year and had a 22% usage rate. He’s a really polished offensive scorer and rebounder and he’s excellent in the pick-and-roll.  This preseason he’s been crushing it and because he is such an elite fantasy points-per-minute producer, he doesn’t necessarily need 30+ minutes to produce. He’s usually a sneaky tournament play off the bench, and a lock for cash games anytime he gets the starting nod.

NBA DFS: Jarrett Allen – C, Brooklyn Nets

Our last player is another young Brooklyn Net, sophomore center Jarrett Allen. As a rookie in 2017, Allen played only 20 minutes a game but still averaged 8 points, 5 boards, and 1.2 blocks.  The Nets plan to start Allen at center this season, and he should see a bump in playing time. Just how many minutes he gets consistently remains to be seen, since Brooklyn did add veterans Ed Davis and Kenneth Faried who could compete for floor time. The upside is still there for Allen, however, as he showed last night when he piled up 17 points and 9 rebounds with 4 blocks in 32 minutes.  Keep a close eye on the Brooklyn rotations early on in the season and hopefully, some of the Nets youngsters like Levert and Allen will emerge as reliable fantasy options.

Thanks for reading and be sure to check back next week for my breakout players for 2018!  Follow me @ThunderDanDFS on twitter and hit me up with questions any time!