NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday October 9
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday Night’s NBA DFS slate was a successful one for our core as players like Nikola Vucevic, Andre Drummond and Victor Oladipo were three of the four highest scoring players on the entire slate. The other side of the coin is that these three were also three of the highest owned players so having them just meant you had the right core and it was finding the lower owned plays like many of the Nets starters (LeVert, Allen, Russell) who put up big scores and single digit ownership.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Two Game Slate – Thunder and Bucks
We have a small two game slate tonight which means the “margin for error” is about as slim as you could imagine and with so many having the same player pool core, your cash line position will likely come down to various 2v2 or 1v1 match-ups with your DFS opponents.
With Russell Westbrook still sidelined, the duo of Dennis Schroder and Paul George should be two of the higher owned plays on this slate and for good reason. So far this preseason, PG13 is leading the Thunder with a 32.6% usage rate while Schroder is not far behind with a 29.5% usage rate of his own. Now here is the tricky part – tonight is the final preseason game for OKC before their regular season debut against the Warriors on the 16th so there is a very real chance this could be more of a “figure out the last guys on the roster” kind of game versus one where they push their starters.
In the last game, the Thunder played George 25 minutes, Schroder 27 minutes and Steven Adams 30 minutes so it is very possible THAT was the dress rehearsal for the Thunder core which means it is critical we watch for news tonight on how the Thunder plan to approach this one. Needless to say, assuming they get regular minutes – George and Schroder are must plays and I could argue that Adams falls into that category on a two game slate as well.
Hamidou Diallo starting the second half in Terrance Ferguson's place. Still no word on the severity of Ferguson's injury or what happened specifically.
— Erik Horne (@ErikkHorne) October 7, 2018
Regardless of the minutes the big three for OKC get tonight, the guy that I have my eye on the most is rookie Hamidou Diallo ($8.6K) who got the second half start for OKC due to Terrance Ferguson leaving with a concussion. With Ferguson in the NBA concussion protocol and already ruled out for tonight, Diallo could garner another start here after putting up 13 points and 5 rebounds in 25 minutes of action.
On the Bucks side of the ball, this is the second to last game for Milwaukee in the preseason so it could be a more traditional dress rehearsal for the starting unit. The Bucks last played on Sunday where the Big Three of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton all played 25-27 minutes against the Timberwolves. With this being a new coaching staff and having one more preseason game at the end of the week, my initial read here would this would be an ideal spot to play regular season rotations, which means the big three noted above become core plays on the slate.
UPDATE – Well, go ahead and ignore everything about the Bucks because we got our first big news item. All of the following will be OUT tonight versus OKB – Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe and Lopez and not to mention Illyasova, Maker, Wilson and Duval. With so many of the Milwaukee core out – there is going to be MASSIVE usage available to those who end up drawing the minutes!
With this game being the first to start and a 2.5 hour gap before the nightcap, the “safest route” – as if there is such a thing in NBA DFS preseason – would be to get the line-up news here and simply stack away.
NBA DFS – The Late Night Hammer – Clippers and Nuggets
The Nuggets are one of my favorite teams to build around in the NBA DFS regular season but as far as preseason goes, they have been a rather underwhelming team to target, limiting their starters to 20-24 minutes a night with regularity. Tonight, Denver takes on the Clippers in their second to last preseason game so like we mentioned with the Bucks – this could be a chance for a regular rotation dress rehearsal.
The Nuggets starters really have looked a bit sloppy thus far in the preseason with no single starter averaging double-digit shot attempts and Nikola Jokic leading the team with a mediocre 24% usage rate. Unless we get some news that the starters are going to play “major minutes”, the performance and usage from the starting unit is not something I really want to target if we only get 20-24 minutes of court time.
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Monte Morris ($9.9K) has been a strong contributor off the bench for the Nuggets in his last two games with 26 minutes of court time in each of his last time games as the primary bench guard and more importantly has led the team in shot attempts in both of those games with 23 FGA in those two outings.
The Clippers meanwhile will play their final preseason game tonight before opening their regular season with this very same Nuggets team on the 17th – and that fact alone makes me nervous to expect too much here from the Clippers starters – are they really going to push a relatively veteran core of Tobias Harris, Patrick Beverley, Marcin Gortat, Lou Williams and Danillo Gallinari when they play Denver in a week when it matters?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10.6K) has been impressive in various roles in his first NBA action this preseason, running the second team and stepping in for PatBev when he has sat out and could be in line for extended run if the Clippers do opt to rest or limit some starters. Part of me is really hoping that we get a Boban Marjanovic ($8.5K) night – because what would be better than chalk Boban on a two game NBA DFS slate?
We all know that Boban is a DFS darling because the advanced metrics love this guy – he is a usage monster when he is on the court, the problem is – that is rarely for long. Across the entire NBA this preseason, Boban is second in the entire NBA in usage at 37% but that is limited to 20 minutes of court time. In his last two games – Boban has averaged 13 points and 4 rebounds in less than 10 minutes a contest which makes him an intriguing punt option at low ownership on a two game slate.
Best of luck tonight all!
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